National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan plans to travel to Saudi Arabia and Israel this weekend amid the rising tensions over the Israeli military operation in Rafah, three U.S. and Israeli officials with knowledge of the plans tell Axios.
Why it matters: The White House continues to try to dissuade Israel from launching a broad military operation in the southern Gaza city that would cross President Biden's "red line" for withholding weapons to Israel.
- A senior U.S. official said Tuesday the Biden administration had reached an understanding with the Israeli government that any operation in Rafah wouldn't be significantly expanded before Sullivan's visit.
- The White House hopes to extend this commitment until a high-level, in-person meeting between U.S. and Israel teams in Washington in the days after Sullivan's trip.
- Sullivan's trip also is a long-shot attempt to make progress toward a U.S.-Saudi "Mega Deal" that could include normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Driving the news: Sullivan's trip to Saudi Arabia was supposed to take place in early April but was postponed at the last minute when Sullivan cracked a rib.
- Since then, tensions between the Biden administration and the Israeli government have increased.
- Biden put on hold a weapons shipment to Israel and drew a clear "red line" in which he said a major ground operation in Rafah would lead him to suspend sending certain U.S.-made offensive weapons to Israel.
- The White House has been stressing to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a major Rafah operation would reduce the chance for a historic peace deal with Saudi Arabia, U.S. officials say.
Brett McGurk, Biden's senior Middle East adviser, told a group of Middle East experts from Washington think tanks last week that Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries in the region have told the U.S. that a major invasion of Rafah by Israel would set back the normalization process.
- McGurk added that the Arab nations also said it would hinder the regional security cooperation with Israel against Iran, three sources in the meeting told Axios.
For now, Netanyahu isn't convinced — and is still committing publicly to move ahead with a Rafah invasion.
- The White House didn't respond to questions about this story.
What they're saying: "Israel's long-term security depends on being integrated into the region and enjoying normal relations with the Arab states, including Saudi Arabia," Sullivan told reporters on Monday.
- He stressed that Israel should weigh any attack on Rafah with its larger strategy in mind.
- "We shouldn't miss a historic opportunity to achieve the vision of a secure Israel flanked by strong regional partners, presenting a powerful front to deter aggression and uphold regional stability," Sullivan said.
What to watch: The chance for reaching a "Mega Deal" are extremely low, but the White House continues to work toward a draft U.S.-Saudi defense treaty.
- That would involve U.S. support for a Saudi civilian nuclear program, according to four U.S. and Israeli officials.
- U.S. and Saudi officials say they've made significant progress in their talks.
- McGurk, Biden senior adviser Amos Hochstein and State Department counselor Derek Chollet will join Sullivan on this weekend's trip. They're expected to meet Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, Netanyahu and other Saudi and Israeli officials.
U.S. officials hope to reach a bilateral agreements with the Saudis and then present them to Netanyahu, whose side of the deal would include ending the war in Gaza and committing to a path toward a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.
- Netanyahu then would face a choice: If he agrees, he could broker a historic peace deal with Saudi Arabia. If he says no, he could lose U.S. support and face the consequences of a Rafah operation on his own.
