March NY world sugar #11 (SBH25) Monday closed down -0.09 (-0.47%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH25) closed down -5.40 (-1.04%).
Sugar prices on Monday settled moderately lower and were under pressure due to the rally in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 3-week high.
Sugar prices are in a 4-month-long downtrend. On January 21, NY sugar posted a 5-1/2 month nearest-futures low, and London sugar posted a 3-1/2 year low. An improving global sugar supply outlook is weighing on sugar prices. On January 20, India said it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing its restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season.
On November 21, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) reduced its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -2.51 MMT, compared to an August forecast of -3.58 MMT. ISO also raised its 2023/24 global sugar surplus estimate to 1.31 MMT from an August projection of 200,000 MT.
The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On October 29, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board projected that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production would jump by +18% y/y to 10.35 MMT. Thailand produced 8.77 MMT of sugar in the 2023/24 season that ended in April. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.
Sugar found support last Wednesday after Czarnikow cut its Thailand 2024/25 sugar production estimate to 10.8 MMT from a previous forecast of 11.6 MMT.
Sugar has support from signs of smaller sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer. The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) reported on January 9 that India's 2024/25 sugar production from October 1 to December 31 was down -15.5% y/y to 9.54 MMT. The ISM projects India's 2024/25 sugar production to fall -15% y/y to a 5-year low of 27.27 MMT.
Drought and excessive heat last year caused fires in Brazil that damaged sugar crops in Brazil's top sugar-producing state of Sao Paulo. Sugar cane industry group Orplana said that as many as 2,000 fire outbreaks affected up to 80,000 hectares of planted sugarcane in Sao Paulo. Green Pool Commodity Specialists noted that as much as 5 MMT of sugar cane may have been lost due to the fires. Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, cut its 2024/25 Brazil sugar production estimate from November 21 to 44 MMT from a previous forecast of 46 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. Unica reported today that cumulative 2024/25 Center-South sugar output through mid-January is down -5.5% y/y to 39.794 MMT.
As a supportive factor for sugar prices, the ISO on August 30 forecasted 2024/25 global sugar production of 179.3 MMT, down -1.1% y/y from 181.3 MMT in 2023/24.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released November 21, projected that global 2024/25 sugar production would climb +1.5% y/y to a record 186.619 MMT and that global 2024/25 human sugar consumption would increase +1.2% y/y to a record 179.63 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2024/25 global sugar ending stocks would decline -6.1% y/y to 45.427 MMT.
