October NY world sugar #11 (SBV24) on Friday closed down -0.40 (-2.16%), and Oct London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV24) closed down -7.70 (-1.47%).
Sugar prices posted moderate losses on Friday, with NY sugar falling to a 1-week low and London sugar tumbling to a 9-month nearest-futures low. The outlook for above-average monsoon rains in India has boosted optimism about India's sugar crop. The India Meteorological Department on Thursday forecasted that monsoon rainfall in India will be 106% of the long-term average of 422.8 mm (16.65 inches) during August and September. The Indian Meteorological Department reported Monday that India received 430.2 mm of rain during the current monsoon season as of July 28, up +3% from the comparable long-term average of 418.9 mm. India's monsoon season runs from June through September.
The slump in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is also undercutting sugar prices as the real Friday fell to a 3-1/4 year low against the dollar. The weaker real encourages export selling from Brazil's sugar producers.
The weakness in crude prices also weighs on sugar prices. Crude oil (CLU24) plunged more than -3% Friday to a 2-month low, which undercuts ethanol prices and could encourage the world's sugar mills to divert cane crushing to sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) on July 3 reported India's 2023/24 sugar reserves at 9.1 MMT and reported a surplus of 3.6 MMT. The group urged the government to allow increased exports of surplus sugar. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. Separately, the ISM reported on May 13 that India's 2023/24 sugar production from Oct-Apr fell -1.6% y/y to 31.4 MMT. Also, the ISM on Tuesday projected India's 2024/25 sugar production would fall by -2% y/y to 33.31 MMT.
Conab, Brazil's crop agency, projected on April 25 that Brazil's sugar production for the overall 2024/25 marketing year will climb +1.3% y/y to a record 46.292 MMT as 2024/25 sugar acreage in Brazil increases by +4.1% to 8.7 million hectares (21.5 million acres), the most in seven years. For the 2023/24 marketing year that just ended, Unica said on April 19 that Brazilian sugar output rose +25.7% y/y to 42.425 MMT.
Unica reported last Thursday that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of July fell -9.7% y/y to 2.939 MMT. However Center-South sugar production in the marketing year through mid-July was still up by +10.4% y/y at 17.140 MMT.
Record heat in Thailand that may damage the country's sugarcane crops is bullish for sugar prices. On May 6, Thailand's Meteorological Department said that more than three dozen of Thailand's 77 provinces posted record-high temperatures in April, with new highs beating records as far back as 1958. Sugar millers in Thailand are reporting the lowest yield from crushed cane this year in at least 13 years. However, Thailand's government on April 22 estimated that Thailand's 2023/24 sugar production from Dec-Apr 17 was 8.77 MMT, above a Feb estimate from the Thai Sugar Millers Corp for sugar production of 7.5 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.
In support of sugar prices, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on June 10 raised its global 2023/24 sugar deficit estimate to -2.95 MMT from a February estimate of -689,000 MT. ISO also raised its global 2023/24 sugar demand estimate to 182.2 MMT from 180.4 MMT, citing upward revisions to India's consumption figures.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on May 23, projected that global 2024/25 sugar production would climb +1.4% y/y to a record 186.024 MMT and that global 2024/25 human sugar consumption would increase +0.8% y/y to a record 178.788 MMT. The USDA forecasted that 2024/25 global sugar ending stocks would fall -4.7% y/y to a 13-year low of 38.339 MMT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
