Oct NY world sugar #11 (SBV23) on Monday closed -0.09 (-0.36%), and Oct London white sugar #5 (SWV23) closed -2.30 (-0.33%).
Sugar prices Monday fell back from 1-month highs and closed lower. Sugar prices were undercut on speculation that dry conditions in Brazil would boost the country's sugar harvest. Favorable Brazilian weather forecasts also reduced the chances of damaging frost. Sugar production is running strong in Brazil. Unica reported on July 11 that Brazil Center-South sugar output in the second half of June rose +7.6% y/y to 2.695 MMT and that sugar output in the 2023/24 crop year through June rose +25.9% y/y to 12.228 MMT. Also, 47.68% of the crushed sugarcane was used for sugar production this year, an increase from 42.56% last year.
Brazil's recent favorable weather conditions prompted sugar trader Czarnikow to raise its 2023 Center-South sugar production forecast by 500,000 MT to 38.2 MMT. Also, Datagro on June 29 forecasted that Brazil's Center-South, the main sugar-growing region, will produce a record 39.1 million tons of sugar in the 2023/24 marketing year that began in April, up +16% y/y.
Sugar prices Monday initially moved higher on strength in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) after the real rallied to a 13-1/2 week high against the dollar. The stronger real discourages export selling from Brazil's sugar producers. Also, strength in crude oil prices is bullish for sugar after crude (CLU23) Monday climbed by more than +2% to a 3-month high. The higher crude prices benefit ethanol and may prompt the world's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus curbing sugar supplies.
Sugar prices also have support from excessive dryness in Thailand, the world's third-largest sugar producer, which may curb the country's sugar production. So far this year, rainfall in Thailand is 28% below the same period last year, and the onset of the El Nino weather system could lower precipitation even further over the next two years. Czarnikow Group predicts Thai sugar production this year could fall for the first time in three years and may drop to the second lowest since 2009/10.
A bullish factor for sugar is concern that an El Nino weather pattern could disrupt global sugar production. On June 8, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said that sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean had risen 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal, and wind patterns have changed to the point where El Nino criteria have been met. An El Nino weather pattern typically brings heavy rains to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting sugar crop production. The last time El Nino brought dryness to sugar crops in Asia was in 2015 and 2016, which caused prices to soar.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on May 25, projected that global 2023/24 sugar production would climb +6.0% y/y to a record 187.881 MMT and that global 2023/24 human sugar consumption would increase +2.3% y/y to a record 180.045 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2023/24 global sugar ending stocks would fall -15.2% y/y to a 13-year low of 33.455 MMT.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on May 22 cut its 2022/23 global sugar production estimate to 177.4 MMT from a previous estimate of 180.4 MMT and cut its 2022/23 global sugar surplus estimate to 852,000 MT from a previous estimate of 4.15 MMT. On May 4, ISO forecasted a global 2023/24 sugar surplus of +2.1 MMT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
