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Rightwing Tory MP Suella Braverman’s bid to replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader may come to an end before it even begins despite huge support among ordinary party members.
The Independent understands that the former home secretary is struggling to get the 10 MPs needed to put her on the ballot paper to become the next Conservative leader as rightwing Brexiteers look at Robert Jenrick as an alternative candidate.
Allies have warned that a “Stop Suella” campaign is running among parliamentarians because of the “uncomfortable truths” she spoke about the state of the party and her enormous support among ordinary members.
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A survey by the Conservative Post has been sent to 14,000 verified registered party members with dramatic results. From the first 3,091 respondents Ms Braverman has picked up more than 1,000 votes as the best leader well ahead of former business secretary Kemi Badenoch in second place with just over 400. The two centrist One Nation candidates on the left of the party - James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat - are trailing in the last two places with less than 300.
The contrast between the MPs and members appears to show that the rift between the two groups is widening even after the catastrophic election defeat on 4 July.
While Ms Braverman’s rightwing rhetoric is popular among members, MPs have claimed she is “too toxic” to win over the wider public.
Ms Braverman has attracted negative headlines with her support for the Rwanda deportation scheme as “her dream”, her description of pro-Gaza supporters as “hate marchers”, her call to takeaway homeless people’s tents, her claim that LGBTQ+ flag “represented child mutilation which left her physically repulsed” and her description of imigrants arriving on small boats as “an invasion”.
But supporters have warned that keeping Ms Braverman off the ballot paper will be the last straw for many ordinary members who are generally more rightwing than the party’s MPs.
Braverman ally Claire Bullivant, editor of the Conservative Post and chief executive of the grassroots Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), warned that keeping Ms Braverman off the ballot could destroy the party.
She told The Independent: “There appears to be a Stop Suella campaign among MPs. They must be afraid of her popularity with members and her ability to articulate their conservative values as well as identify what has been going wrong since the removal of Boris Johnson.
"After the disaster of the election MPs have no right to continue to act in this arrogant way.
"If Suella is kept off the ballot then it will only serve to widen the rift between ordinary party members and MPs. MPs need to remember who stuck by them, delivered their leaflets, knocked doors and took abuse for them during a very difficult campaign.”
Ms Bullivant has been tracking Tory membership moving to Reform UK which Nigel Farage announced last week had hit 70,000.
She said: "Unfortunately this unacceptable behaviour by MPs will have consequences. We are already seeing a flight of thousands of members defecting to Reform. If Suella is not even allowed on the ballot that switch to Nigel Farage will only get worse and accelerate.”
Ms Bullivant added: "We all believe in this great party and want to see it restored to power. But at the moment those holding power within it are leading it to destruction."
However, with Mr Jenrick now officially nominated, the remnants of the Tory rightwing after the election wipeout on 4 July appear to have decided to go with a less controversial figure in the hope of backing the winning candidate. An ally of Ms Braverman’s said she was struggling to get the nominations.
Mr Jenrick was one of Ms Braverman’s deputies in the Home Office when he was immigration minister before he resigned in protest over Mr Sunak’s approach to the Rwanda deportation scheme, which he claimed did not go far enough.
While he and Ms Braverman, who was sacked just before his resignation, formed an hardline alliance during the Rwanda debate, the two have ended up as rivals for the rightwing ticket with Mr Jenrick taking support away from his former boss.
The Independent understands six MPs had backed Ms Braverman including her mentor Sir John Hayes, who had flirted with supporting Mr Jenrick. But key figures like Danny Kruger switched to the Jenrick camp to become campaign manager because they believe he is in a better position to win.
Ms Braverman had also been criticised by her colleagues for declaring defeat for the Tories two days before people went to the polling stations and her comments attacking colleagues for being “liberal” afterwards. She also had public spats with Mr Jenrick and the bookies’ favourite for the contest, Kemi Badenoch.
Ms Braverman is meeting with allies to discuss her next move and whether she should support someone else or continue to try to get enough nominations by Monday.
However, her cause has not been helped by the decision by the Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) not to make any decision on supporting candidates until after the summer.
Explaining why he has backed Mr Jenrick, Mr Kruger, who founded the rightwing New Conservatives movement, said: "To have any path back to government we must win back those voters we have lost, across the board but particularly to Reform. At the same time we have to bring our party together, united behind one set of coherent Conservative principles."
Meanwhile, it is understood that another former home secretary Priti Patel is close to submitting her nomination papers and is set to also win some of the few remaining rightwing Tory MPs.
Another former home secretary James Cleverly and former security minister Tom Tugendhat have already announced that they have nominations to proceed. Former business secretary Kemi Badenoch is expected to also enter the race and could end up as the rightwing candidate.
Former work and pensions secretary Mel Stride declared his intention to stand on Friday morning.
