Extreme temperatures, particularly heat, are predicted to cause up to 2.3 million deaths in Europe by the end of the century if measures to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to warmer conditions are not implemented, according to a recent study. Currently, cold temperatures result in more fatalities in Europe than heat, but as temperatures rise, the number of heat-related deaths is expected to increase significantly.
A study conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine analyzed climate simulations and death rates in 854 cities. The findings suggest that without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and improved adaptation strategies like air conditioning and cooling centers, countries such as Italy, southern Spain, and Greece will experience a surge in heat-related deaths due to climate change.
Conversely, regions like Scandinavia and the United Kingdom are projected to see a decrease in temperature-related deaths, primarily due to milder cold temperatures. However, even under the most optimistic scenarios with significant emission reductions and enhanced adaptation efforts, there will still be a net increase in temperature-related deaths as global temperatures continue to rise.
The study highlights the Mediterranean region as a climate hotspot, with countries like Malta facing a substantial increase in temperature-related deaths by the end of the century. In contrast, Ireland is expected to see a slight decrease in such fatalities.
Western Europe, being wealthier, is likely to fare better than eastern Europe in terms of managing temperature-related deaths. The study emphasizes the urgent need for adaptation measures in regions experiencing rapid warming, such as the Mediterranean.
Recent heat waves in Europe have already claimed thousands of lives, with the 2003 heatwave resulting in approximately 70,000 deaths. The study warns that cities with high population densities near the Mediterranean could witness a significant rise in temperature-related deaths in the coming decades.
To mitigate the projected death rates, the study recommends extensive adaptation measures in Europe, including central air conditioning, increased green spaces, and cooling centers. The aging population in Europe adds to the vulnerability, making adaptation efforts even more crucial.
Experts emphasize the importance of addressing climate change impacts on public health, particularly in regions where extreme heat poses a significant risk. The study's findings align with expectations of rising temperatures and the associated health risks, underscoring the need for proactive measures to protect vulnerable populations.
For more climate coverage, visit AP’s climate coverage.
