Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Multichannel News
Multichannel News
Business
Jon Lafayette

Strong Ad Market Means Smaller Drop in TV Revenues, Says Magna Forecast

A closeup of U.S. money.

A stronger-than-expected U.S. advertising market and special events meant smaller declines in national TV ad revenues in the second quarter, according to media agency Magna, which boosted its full-year ad spending forecast for 2024.

National television/video revenues fell 1.1% in Q2. That included a 6.4% drop for linear networks and a 19.6% increase for ad-supported video-on-demand, connected TV and free ad-supported streaming television (FAST). 

For 2024, Magna forecasts that national TV will finish down 1.7%, an improvement from Magna’s earlier forecast of a 3% decline. Linear networks will be down 6.8% while AVOD, CTV and FAST will be up 19.3%.

Local TV is expected to be up 25.4% in 2024 including cyclical events, and down 3.9% excluding cyclical events.

For all media, Magna sees ad revenues including cyclical events as rising by 11.4% (the previous forecast was 10.7%) and up 8.9% excluding cyclical events (the earlier forecast was 8.2%). That would mark the strongest growth rate in 20 years.

Those cyclical events will bring in $10 billion in incremental ad sales in 2024. The election will add a record $9 billion to media owners. Magna estimates NBCUniversal’s ad sales during the Paris Olympic Games at $1.5 billion, including $1.1 billion for linear and $400 million for digital and streaming.

On the digital side, ad revenue rose 16% in the first half of 2024. Magna noted that Meta and Google credited AI tools with driving incremental spending.

For the full year, digital pure-play ad revenue is expected to be up 14.2% in 2024.

Magna also forecasts that the ad market will remain strong in 2025.

Overall, noncyclical ad spending will grow 6.3% to $291 billion in 2025, Magna said, while sales including cyclical events, like the Olympics and elections, will rise only 3.9%. 

National television sales will drop 2.7% while local television sales will underperform and decline 3.6% (excluding election spending) in 2025.

Digital pure players will again drive the market, growing 9.3% to $289 billion, while traditional media owners will erode by 1.5% to $102 billion.

Digital revenues are expected to be up 8.7% in 2025.

In 2026, the ad market should top $400 billion, the agency said.

(Image credit: Magna)
Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.