In Week 8, we all backed Sam Ehlinger at home against the Washington Commanders. We were wrong.
The rookie quarterback played mostly anonymous football and was perhaps one Michael Pittman Jr. drop away from pulling off a fourth quarter comeback against the NFC East’s worst team. Now he’s got to travel to New England and face Bill Belichick, a head coach who revels in embarrassing first year quarterbacks.
Needless to say, we’re off the Ehlinger train. It’s one of 10 games in a slightly uninteresting week where we came to unanimous decisions picking winners. Week 9 doesn’t feature many marquee matchups and nearly 20 percent of the league is on its bye.
Still, given this weekend’s slate home underdogs, Sunday could wind up delivering more than meets the eye. Here’s our full lineup of straight-up moneyline picks for Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Eagles at Texans | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Bills at Jets | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Panthers at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Colts at Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots |
| Packers at Lions | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Dolphins at Bears | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Vikings at Commanders | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Raiders at Jaguars | Jaguars | Raiders | Raiders |
| Chargers at Falcons | Falcons | Chargers | Chargers |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks |
| Rams at Buccaneers | Bucs | Bucs | Rams |
| Titans at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Ravens at Saints | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Last week: | 10-5 | 9-6 | 9-6 |
| Year to date: | 77-45-1 | 72-50-1 | 67-55-1 |
And here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) over the Carolina Panthers
This week is dotted with interesting kinda/sorta upset picks. The Commanders have homefield advantage against a Vikings team that isn’t quite as good as its 6-1 record suggests. The fading Lions get the fading Packers at Ford Field. The two-win Jaguars are a home dog vs. the two-win Raiders in a game that probably won’t end in a 27-27 tie.
That doesn’t leave a ton of slam dunk picks — not that I’ve been great at identifying them anyway, since I started this section out with five straight misses. The Bengals certainly aren’t a lock given last Monday’s bed-wetting. They allowed a shaky quarterback to dominate them when Jacoby Brissett needed only 22 passes to throw for 278 yards. Joe Burrow struggled to drop into gear against the league’s 27th-ranked defense. Now Cincinnati is 4-4.
The Panthers, on the other hand, beat the Buccaneers in their second game without Matt Rhule and were two missed kicks away from beating the Falcons in their third. They’ve got a little momentum pushing them toward Ohio while the Bengals are stalling out.
But, uh, nah. PJ Walker may have connected with DJ Moore on that last-ditch dime in Week 8, but he spent the bulk of the first half missing open targets downfield with inaccurate passes. That worked against the Falcons’ awful AJ Terrell-less secondary. It won’t against the Bengals’ merely-bad group.
A home game against the league’s 27th-ranked passing defense is also an opportunity for Joe Burrow to prove he can be an elite quarterback without Ja’Marr Chase in his lineup. Cincinnati has its share of struggles to contend with in 2022. They’re nothing compared to what Carolina’s.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 3-5 (.375)
Hardest favorite to back: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over the Los Angeles Rams
You could substitute the Green Bay Packers vs. the Detroit Lions here if you wanted. Both these games feature former NFC titans battling losing streaks behind former MVPs who have fallen off in 2022.
The Rams present the tougher challenge than a Lions team in the midst of a five-game, defense-optional skid, so the Bucs get the nod here. Los Angeles has faced a similar problem as Tampa Bay. Its veteran Super Bowl-winning quarterback has been unable to gain his footing behind a revamped offensive line that can’t really block anyone and a run game that averages fewer than 3.4 yards per carry.
Tom Brady has been able to remedy this with deep shots to Mike Evans. Matthew Stafford has Cooper Kupp, but Kupp is dealing with an ankle injury suffered late in a game that had already been decided and may not be 100 percent in Week 9. Tampa’s pressure rate of 22.9 percent isn’t nearly as bad as LA’s 12.6 percent, so while Brady will almost certainly have a couple drives ruined by Aaron Donald he’s still likely to have more time in the pocket than his veteran counterpart.
That’s enough to give the Bucs the edge in a game that looked like a preview of the NFC title game back in August and instead may feature two teams who fail to make it to the Wild Card round.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 4-3 (.571)
Upset pick of the week: Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) over the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have given up a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry. The Falcons run the ball like they’re performing high budget Big Ten cosplay for Comic-Con.
The Chargers allow 13.7 yards per catch to tight ends, third-worst in the NFL. The Falcons made it a point last week to involve Kyle Pitts more heavily in their offense (nine targets, five catches, 80 yards and a touchdown).
The Falcons’ biggest weakness is a passing defense that could feature a returning A.J. Terrell. The Chargers have a deficient offensive line whose inability to protect Justin Herbert has his efficiency rating trapped between Ryan Tannehill and Jared Goff in what was supposed to be his breakthrough season:
Factor in Mike Williams’ absence and the fact crazy stuff finds a way to happen at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and you’ve got enough ingredients for an upset. A very dumb one, probably, but an upset nonetheless.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-6 (.250)
