Week 3 was vicious for NFL home teams. Seven of last week’s games were won by visiting teams.
But the teams that did win in friendly confines pulled up some big upsets to do so. The Miami Dolphins closed as a four-point underdog before claiming AFC East supremacy over the Buffalo Bills. The Indianapolis Colts were a 6.5-point dog to the Kansas City Chiefs, then rode a special teams imbalance to the first win of the Matt Ryan era. The San Francisco 49ers were 1.5-point favorites in Denver, then lost an 11-10 game at least partially decided by Jimmy Garoppolo forgetting how long a football field is.
never before did i think you could save 5 points by Orlovsky-ing yourself out the back of the end zone, but somehow Jimmy Garoppolo did just that pic.twitter.com/xVJaDQ0lmb
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 26, 2022
This led to a thoroughly brutal week for our straight-up picks. Not a single one of us here at FTW scraped the modest heights of .500. I was 7-3 through the 1 p.m. games and failed to predict a single game correctly afterward. Just gruesome stuff.
Will we learn from this? Probably not! But we will shout into the void once more and wait for feedback that either will not come or will be summarily ignored? Oh, friends, yes.
On to Week 4’s straight-up picks.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Dolphins at Bengals | Bengals | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Vikings at Saints | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Bills at Ravens | Bills | Ravens | Bills |
| Bears at Giants | Giants | Bears | Giants |
| Browns at Falcons | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Jaguars at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Jets at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers |
| Titans at Colts | Titans | Titans | Colts |
| Chargers at Texans | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers |
| Seahawks at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Commanders at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Cardinals at Panthers | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Broncos at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Broncos |
| Patriots at Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Chiefs at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Chiefs | Buccaneers |
| Rams at 49ers | Rams | Rams | Rams |
| Last week: | 7-9 | 6-10 | 6-10 |
| Year to date: | 27-20-1 | 25-22-1 | 22-25-1 |
And here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Detroit Lions (-6) over the Seattle Seahawks
Zero for three! I am zero for three when it comes to this pick, the one I’m most confident in each week.
That means we’ve zoomed beyond coincidence and into “trend” territory. Fade this pick. Make it your upset of the week. At the very least, approach it with caution.
That said, there’s a lot to like about the Lions right now. Sure, their defense is a mess, but this offense is loaded with playmakers and guys willing to step up in big moments — last week Josh Reynolds (Josh Reynolds!) emerged from the ether to lead the team in receiving yards (96).
The concern is that this team has yet to play four cohesive quarters of good football across a single game. That may not be a problem against a Seattle team that couldn’t overcome the Falcons’ leaky defense in last week’s home loss. Geno Smith is the better quarterback. Detroit has the better team.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 0-3 (.000)
Hardest favorite to back: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) over the New York Jets
I thought the Steelers could sneak into the playoffs for a third straight year. I thought Mitchell Trubisky could play average football. I thought a defense filled with stars would do enough to give a run-heavy offense room to win low-scoring games.
I thought.
Instead, Trubisky has been significantly worse than he was in his final season as a Chicago Bear, suggesting one season as Josh Allen’s backup did not, in fact, fix a damn thing. He currently rates out as the 29th-best starting quarterback in the game right now — one slot ahead of Davis Mills.
Here’s the thing, though. The New York Jets will be turning to 2021’s dirt-worst starting passer in his season debut in Week 4. Zach Wilson injured his knee in New York’s first preseason game and hasn’t played an in-game snap since. That means a player who rated out here last season:
Is getting thrown into the fire against a defense that forced Joe Burrow into five turnovers in *his* season debut. Granted, the Steelers won’t have TJ Watt in the lineup, but still. Wilson looked overwhelmed in his brief preseason appearance and remains stuck behind an offensive line that will struggle to keep his pockets clean.
So, (loud fart noise), give me Mitch and the Steelers to win at home. And if you’re in the regional broadcast area for this game, please accept my condolences.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-1 (.667)
Upset pick of the week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) over the Kansas City Chiefs
There aren’t a lot of great upset candidates this week. I’m backing the 1-2 Bengals against the 3-0 Dolphins on Thursday night, but they opened as a two-point favorite and that spread has grown to four.
The Saints have the chops to beat the Vikings, but that game’s in London. That means New Orleans just made a quarterback with four broken bones in his back sit through a trans-Atlantic flight, which famously sucks for even healthy backs. Plus, Kirk Cousins gets better the earlier his kickoffs are and this one starts at 9:30 a.m. ET, so …
Let’s roll with Tampa Bay’s redemption over Kansas City’s. This was originally going to be something about how Tom Brady doesn’t lose back-to-back games, but he’s done it each of the last four seasons now, suggesting that theory exists only in my Dunkin’-addled, Rhode Island-raised brain.
Brady was mostly awful in Week 3, but he was also without Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Mike Evans. Godwin hasn’t practiced this week and is likely out again, but Jones should be back in the lineup and Evans definitely will be after sitting out a game for lighting up Marshon Lattimore for … some reason. They’ll be able to boost the Bucs against a Chiefs pass defense that’s good, but not great.
Patrick Mahomes, on the other hand, will have to wage war against the league’s top defense and one that made Aaron Rodgers utterly ineffectual for three quarters last week. Both teams need a win; Tampa Bay has the better D and homefield advantage. Let’s do it.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 1-2 (.333)
