Week 16 of the NFL season will parse down a playoff field where only five teams — the Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals — have been eliminated from the postseason. That means plenty of opportunities for needy teams in a slate filled with road underdogs.
That starts on Thursday night with a de facto playoff game between the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have rallied from 2-6 to make waves in the fecund water park kiddie pool that is the AFC South. The Jets, on the other hand, have slid in the opposite direction and now have to rely on Zach Wilson to reverse those fortunes. That’s a big ask — and it’s got our three-man panel split on the outcome of Week 16’s first game.
That’s one of only three games in which our experts didn’t see eye-to-eye. A do-or-die game between the ugly offenses of the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns is a concern. So is a tragic showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams that once looked like a possible Super Bowl preview but instead is a battle between two putrid teams who don’t even own their upcoming top five draft picks.
Here’s our full slate of picks for Week 16, with explanations below.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Jaguars at Jets | Jets | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Bills at Bears | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Falcons at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Seahawks at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Giants at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Saints at Browns | Browns | Saints | Browns |
| Bengals at Patriots | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Texans at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans |
| Lions at Panthers | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Commanders at 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Eagles at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Raiders at Steelers | Steelers | Raiders | Raiders |
| Packers at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Broncos at Rams | Broncos | Broncos | Rams |
| Buccaneers at Cardinals | Bucs | Bucs | Bucs |
| Chargers at Colts | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers |
| Last week: | 11-5 | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Year to date: | 141-81-2 | 140-82-2 | 127-95-2 |
And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Buffalo Bills (-8.5) over the Chicago Bears
My Week 15 pick was the Chiefs, then the Texans took them to overtime as a 14-point underdog. This section remains drunk in a season filled with dumb upsets.
Anywhoodles, covering on the road is tough and the Bears refuse to give up in the lingering last gasps of a terminal 2022 season. Chicago could put a scare in a team that’s already locked in a playoff spot — see the Eagles last weekend — but the Bills have done a good job of avoiding trap games late in the year under Sean McDermott. Upsets happen early in the year, sure, but Buffalo is 9-0 in games scheduled for the final four weeks of the regular season since Josh Allen seized his potential in 2020.
The real reason to watch this game is to see what Justin Fields does against the Bills defense. He needs 69 yards per game over the last three weeks to set the NFL record for rushing yards by a quarterback (currently held by Lamar Jackson with 1,206). Will he get more designed runs? Or will last week’s injury scare convinced the Bears to let off the gas and put in work to make sure he escapes 2022 healthy?
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 8-7 (.533)
Hardest favorite to back: New York Jets (-1) over the Jacksonville Jaguars
I officially swapped out my Jets pick last week after news broke about Zach Wilson starting, but since I wrote about all the ways New York’s defense could give the Lions fits (and it did, even if it wound up not mattering!). And, like my continued, unrewarded faith in the Titans, I once again am using this opportunity to prove I’ve learned nothing.
The Jets faced a house-on-fire team last week at home and lost to the once 1-6 Detroit Lions. Now they get the once 2-6 Jags and, despite my misgivings, I am once again placing my faith in New York.
Wilson looked capable in stretches against the league’s 22nd-ranked pass defense. Now he gets the league’s 32nd-ranked unit. Wilson shrank when harassed by the Lions’ pass rush, which ranks 21st in sacks this season. Now he gets the Jags, who rank 28th. If he’s going to look good in 2022 — and lord knows he needs to — this is the place.
On the other side of the ball, the Jets defense continues to roll. New York is potent against both the run and pass and generates consistent pressure without blitzing. Trevor Lawrence has been great lately, but not perfect. The Jets can bait him into mistakes. More importantly, they can keep him grounded long enough for Wilson to do the bare minimum and deliver a badly needed win.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 7-7 (.500)
Upset pick of the week: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over the Las Vegas Raiders
This week’s picks are filled with road wins but, per sportsbook odds, not a betting upset among them. The Jets, at even money at some places, are the closest thing I’ve got. Since we already touched upon my stupid, sure-to-backfire trust in Zach Wilson, let’s talk about … sigh. Raiders-Steelers? Really?
OK, fine.
New England’s last-second tribute to Benny Hill and a disputed last minute touchdown erased what could have been Josh McDaniels’ fourth 14-plus point blown lead of 2022. The Raiders are a flawed football team prone to massive swings of momentum and bad decision making in big moments. They also have the league’s worst defense, which means a returning Kenny Pickett will have the opportunity to shine and, barring that, Mike Tomlin can revert to his ground-first offense and opt to grind Las Vegas into dust.
The Raiders are the team that gave up 200-plus rushing yards in a loss to Jeff Saturday’s Colts and in the aforementioned almost-loss to the Pats. This is not a team that takes care of business but one that finds ways to lose against flawed opponents. The Steelers are a flawed opponent AND they’ll have not-Heinz Field filled with Christmas Eve Yinzers channeling the spirit of the season through the Iron City they drank in the parking lot, through their souls and onto the field. Pittsburgh takes a close one, probably via something stupid happening to Las Vegas.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 3-12 (.200)
