Last week, I placed my faith in the Texans at home against a Washington Commanders team I felt was ripe for a letdown game. Instead, Houston trailed for more than 58 minutes and Taylor Heinicke improved to 4-1 as a starter this fall without having to do much of anything.
The good news is this kept Houston in line to replace Davis Mills with a quarterback taken with the top selection in next spring’s NFL Draft. The bad news is it tanked my picks. Week 12 will bring a deluge of Thursday football thanks to Thanksgiving. It also brings a slate of uninteresting games after the holiday, with the exception of Bengals-Titans.
What once looked like playoff previews between the Rams and Chiefs or Packers and Eagles instead look like looming blowouts. As a result, our three-man panel made a bunch of mostly homogenous picks; we’re unanimous on all but two of Week 12’s 16-game lineup.
Here’s this week’s straight-up picks.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Bills at Lions | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Giants at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Patriots at Vikings | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots |
| Falcons at Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders |
| Bears at Jets | Jets | Jets | Bears |
| Bengals at Titans | Titans | Bengals | Titans |
| Broncos at Panthers | Broncos | Panthers | Broncos |
| Texans at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Ravens at Jaguars | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Buccaneers at Browns | Bucs | Bucs | Bucs |
| Raiders at Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks |
| Chargers at Cardinals | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers |
| Saints at 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Rams at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Packers at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Steelers at Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts |
| Last week: | 8-6 | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Year to date: | 101-62-1 | 99-64-1 | 89-74-1 |
And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-7) over the Green Bay Packers
In the words of our resident betting expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag:
Green Bay is really bad at football. Let’s not overthink this one.
The Packers earned some confidence back in Week 9 by beating the Dallas Cowboys, then vacated it by collapsing against the Tennessee Titans, even with Christian Watson hauling in a pair of touchdowns. The Eagles have their share of issues, but Philly should still be able to handle its business at home.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 5-6 (.455)
Hardest favorite to back: New York Jets (-4) over the Chicago Bears
Of course Russell Wilson and Melvin Gordon combined to burn me last week. Gordon was released for his efforts, which at this point feels more like a reward than a punishment. Fly free, MelGo.
While I still hate Denver, backing Wilson against Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker or Sam Darnold, whichever player the Carolina carousel of QB sadness lands on, makes sense. Backing Zach Wilson, in a period where his defense kinda/sorta hates him and his head coach is thinking about benching him isn’t quite as sound.
But the Bears don’t have much to play for aside from a 2023 top five pick. Justin Fields is hurt, and while he probably wants to play it makes more sense to toss Trevor Siemian into the fire and see if he can fulfill Chicago’s 4-13 destiny. The Jets still have a dynamite defense and the skill players to lift a flawed quarterback, even if Wilson’s strategy has been to either blank them or wildly over/under-throw them. A week ago, this game’s betting total opened at 48 points (lol) and has swiftly dropped under 40. And betting that under *still* makes sense because we don’t know much about these teams other than the fact they’re capable of immense regret.
Anyway, Jets 17, Bears 13.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 5-5 (.500)
Upset pick of the week: Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) over the Baltimore Ravens
Listen, my record in this section is garbage. If my average is gonna flirt with the Mendoza line, I’d better start hitting some dingers.
The Ravens are favored in Week 2, but they’ve got their share of flaws, beginning with the lack of targets that’s limited Lamar Jackson’s passing game. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t great, but a 13th-ranked run D (per DVOA) can limit Baltimore’s ground attack while Jackson lacks the horses to exploit the Jags’ 31st-ranked passing D.
Doug Pederson is 1-4 coming off a bye in his career, which makes me feel … not great about this. But his Jaguars have had success limiting run-first teams; the Indianapolis Colts had 99 combined rushing yards against Jacksonville this season. Granted, that’s not the same as stopping Lamar Jackson, but (sigh) … you know what, I’ve talked myself out of this.
No wait, my *actual* upset pick of the week: Tennessee Titans (+2) over the Cincinnati Bengals
The Titans effectively have the same team every year under Mike Vrabel and are perpetually undervalued despite his 48-27 regular season record. Tennessee wants nothing more than to grind you into the dirt. The Bengals are vulnerable to getting muddy, as they proved in Week 1 vs. the Steelers or Week 5 vs. the Ravens or Week 8 vs. the Browns. The Titans aren’t technically an AFC North team, but they want to run all over you and hit you until you can’t do algebra anymore so spiritually they’re a match.
Since its bye, Tennessee has held three of five opponents to fewer than 300 total yards — and one of those misses was a 313-yard performance from the Broncos. Ja’Marr Chase’s impending return could throw a wrench in those gears, but he may not be 100 perfect if he plays at all. The Titans have a top 10 pressure rate and a bottom five blitz rate, which means Cincinnati’s vulnerable line is going to get cracked often by four-man rushes. That should be enough to keep this game in neutral long enough for another Vrabel win.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-9 (.182)
