Well, that was brutal.
Week 10’s slate of upsets handed For The Win’s expert pickers our worst week of prognostications yet. Only Robert Zeglinski was able to tread water with a non-losing record thanks to surprising victories from the Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders.
Week 11 brings the promise of more discombobulation. Can Jeff Saturday ride what’s sure to be a hero’s welcome back home in Indiana to a win over the Philadelphia Eagles as a full touchdown underdog? Will the Detroit Lions trip up another mobile quarterback by dashing Daniel Jones’ hopes of an 8-2 start?
This weekend’s games aren’t all stat line mismatches, however. The New York Jets and New England Patriots meet to see who will stay afloat in the ulta-competitive AFC East. The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings will joust in a game that could decide the NFC’s top seed. The Los Angeles Chargers will try to avoid fading into oblivion when they host the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here’s Week 11’s full slate of games, along with our picks.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Titans at Packers | Titans | Titans | Packers |
| Panthers at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Bears at Falcons | Bears | Bears | Bears |
| Browns at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Lions at Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants |
| Jets at Patriots | Patriots | Jets | Patriots |
| Eagles at Colts | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Rams at Saints | Rams* | Saints | Saints |
| Commanders at Texans | Texans | Commanders | Commanders |
| Raiders at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Cowboys at Vikings | Vikings | Cowboys | Vikings |
| Chiefs at Chargers | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Bengals at Steelers | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| 49ers at Cardinals | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Last week: | 6-8 | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Year to date: | 93-56-1 | 89-60-1 | 80-69-1 |
The asterisk next to the Rams is to denote this pick is dependent on Matthew Stafford making the start in Week 11. And even then, I don’t feel great about it.
Here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.
Easiest game to pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over the Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Saturday faces a team whose head coach isn’t just three children stacked on top of each other in a trench coat. Sure, having Matt Ryan at quarterback helps his cause — but the Eagles have to be furious after last week’s loss and will be happy to take it out on the Colts.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 4-6 (.400)
Hardest favorite to back: Denver Broncos (-2.5) over the Las Vegas Raiders
I was right to doubt the Bills last week, even if they could have avoided disaster simply by not dropping a snap at their own three-inch line. This week made it tougher to find shaky favorites, not because there aren’t a bunch of them but because I’m riding with a cache of underdogs in Week 11. That includes:
- Tennessee Titans (+3)
- Chicago Bears (+3)
- Houston Texans (+3)
- Los Angeles Rams (+4, QB news pending)
- and the Minnesota Vikings (+1)
Stack those up in a parlay and you’d get great odds. You’d also lose, but the number would look good on a betting slip at least. That left this week’s worst favorite inside my circle of trust as, oh no, Russell Wilson’s Broncos.
This is not ideal, but Denver gets the benefit of playing against the most disheveled team in the league. The Raiders are unable to get out of their own way once the tide begins turning against them. Forcing Josh McDaniels to deviate from his gameplan forces Las Vegas to react like uncoordinated children in their first fire drill. He’s already blown three different 17-0 leads and he’s only nine games into his Raiders career.
This is a problem against a devastating Broncos defense. Denver flies to the ball and has the horses to slow down Davante Adams. Without Darren Waller or Hunter Renfrow in the lineup, who is Derek Carr going to turn to for supplemental playmaking? And it’s not like Las Vegas can be trusted to stop Wilson’s mostly imaginary offense; McDaniels’ defense ranks dead last in overall DVOA in 2022.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 5-4 (.556)
Upset pick of the week: Chicago Bears (+3) over the Atlanta Falcons
The Texans are my dumbest upset pick of the week. Washington got a big win on Monday night, but its Week 11 trip to Houston could provide a letdown. I’m calling an upset there based on gut feeling, even knowing Dameon Pierce is going to be running into a powerful rush defense. I don’t have high hopes there.
In terms of most likely upset, however, I’m gonna back Chicago’s run-heavy approach against the league’s 25th-ranked rushing defense. The Bears and Falcons seem to be cut from the same cloth, only Justin Fields in a run-heavy quarterback because his targets are butt and Marcus Mariota is a run-heavy quarterback because overthrowing Kyle Pitts 10 times per game would be too depressing for the metropolitan Atlanta marketplace.
Two run-first teams against bad offenses. I know I like the under here. And since it’s a toss-up I’m gonna roll with the hotter QB. That’s Fields, who was so shell-shocked by last week’s come-from-ahead loss that I’m extremely interested to see his Week 11 response.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-8 (.200)
