Straight up NFL picks aren’t going to do much for your single-game betting portfolio. Picking against the spread evens the odds of heavy favorites and blunts the impact of wagering on hopeless underdogs.
But if you’re in a pool, we’re here to help.
We’re here to provide spreadless, winners/losers only picks for all 272 games of the 2022 NFL season. Recently, it’s gone pretty well.
Over the past three seasons, I’ve had wild luck picking Sunday winners. I had the best record of all national NFL writers through the 2019 and 2020 regular seasons, per NFL Pickwatch. I slipped last season but stuck around the top 25, making me the Clemson of straight up selections.
Acknowledging this probably means I’m about to fall on my face, but I’m happy to overthink my picks and pass them on to you every week. Joining me will be Bet FTW’s Robert Zeglinski, who knows the NFL in and out. He is also very interested in 31 teams as a result of being a Bears fan and needing constant distraction from the overturned acid tanker spilling all over where his team used to be. We’ll also line up FTW editor and fantasy guru Charles Curtis to create a Cerberus of well-intentioned picks.
Here’s how those Week 1 picks look with our not-great online publisher, which it turns out isn’t a great tool for importing spreadsheets:
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Bills at Rams | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Saints at Falcons | Saints | Falcons | Saints |
| Browns at Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| 49ers at Bears | 49ers | Bears | 49ers |
| Steelers at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Eagles at Lions | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Colts at Texans | Colts | Colts | Colts |
| Patriots at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Patriots |
| Ravens at Jets | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Jaguars at Commanders | Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Chiefs at Cardinals | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Packers at Vikings | Vikings | Packers | Vikings |
| Giants at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans |
| Raiders at Chargers | Chargers | Raiders | Chargers |
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | Bucs | Buccaneers | Bucs |
| Broncos at Seahawks | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Last week: | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Year to date: | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Here they are in a more readable, but not copy/pasteable screenshot:
So, just like that we’re off. Let’s talk about some of these choices.
Easiest game to pick: San Francisco 49ers (-7) over the Chicago Bears
It’s tough to imagine a better place to start Trey Lance’s first season as starting quarterback than Chicago. The Bears are in the midst of a teardown and may field the least talented roster in the league. A once formidable defense heads into 2022 without recognizable figures like Khalil Mack, Mario Edwards and Akiem Hicks. The offense is devoid of proven playmakers besides Darnell Mooney and David Montgomery. The offensive line in front of Justin Fields may be the worst in the league.
That leaves a low bar for Lance to clear. There wasn’t a single Chicago full-time defensive back that allowed a passing rating lower than 100.0 who returns to the lineup in Week 1. The Bears’ primary pass rush is Robert Quinn (good!) and a bunch of deep cuts like Trevis Gipson (who may also be good!) and Al-Quadin Muhammad. The Niners should have space to throw the ball downfield and time in the pocket to do so. Only winning by a touchdown would be the real surprise.
Hardest favorite to back: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) over the Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are reigning NFC East champions. They’ve got unfinished Week 1 business against the Bucs after falling 31-29 in an opening night classic last September. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons are all back and they’re starting the season at home.
But Dallas’s top-heavy roster, built in Los Angeles Rams fashion, has been more vulnerable to injury, salary cap crunches and general player decline than last year’s Super Bowl winner. Left tackle Tyron Smith is out for the season. Amari Cooper is a Cleveland Brown, ceding WR2 duties to a recovering-from-ACL-surgery Michael Gallup and rookie Jalen Tolbert. Ezekiel Elliott looks like a shell of his former self but could still sap touches from the more explosive Tony Pollard.
Oh, and Mike McCarthy remains head coach, suggesting if there’s a way to blow this game late in the fourth quarter, he’ll find it.
On the other hand, the Cowboys have the talent to start the year 1-0. The best way to stifle Tom Brady is with a sturdy pass rush. Dallas can crush him with Parsons, especially with three new starters across the interior of his offensive line. Force him to move laterally — never a strength, but even more so that he’s 45 years old — and you can put a governor on how fast he gets that high octane passing offense rolling.
So here’s a trepidatious bet on Touchdown Tom, because we’ve learned time and again that betting against him is a fool’s game. Especially if he’s trying to prove his time away from the team this preseason — totally not to film The Masked Singer, you guys — had no affect on his game.
Upset pick of the week: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over the Washington Commanders
The Jaguars have the chance to make a statement after closing their books on Urban Meyer after only 11 months last winter. Technically that started with a Week 18 win under interim head coach Darell Bevell that knocked the Indianapolis Colts out of the playoffs. Now they can double their Carson Wentz torment to open 2022.
Wentz was sent adrift on an ice floe by the Colts and wound up in the nation’s capital, where he’ll have to be better than Taylor Heinicke to be a technical improvement behind center. While he’ll have a deeper receiving corps (maybe) than he had in Indianapolis, he won’t have nearly the same level of blocking in front of him or dynamic tailbacks behind him.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, spent a tremendous amount of money upgrading the offense around Trevor Lawrence. The Jags’ receivers are better, their blocking has improved, and the backfield will have Travis Etienne AND James Robinson in tow Sunday. Washington spent 2021 underachieving and then acquired the quarterback who underachieved so hard in Week 18 it cost the Colts a playoff spot. Give me the Jags for a feel-good win.
Let’s give the Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) a little shine here as well. Since 2016, the Packers are only 2-4 in Minneapolis. This will be the first game of Aaron Rodgers and his new wide receiver regime. Expect shenanigans.
