At the onset of the 2023 NFL playoffs, I threw the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers out as my Super Bowl 57 pick. They’re still alive, three weeks later, and I’m not about to abandon ship now.
Even though there’s plenty of evidence I should.
The Chiefs head into their fifth-straight AFC Championship Game with one thing they haven’t had in the previous four; a freshly injured Patrick Mahomes. Last week’s high ankle sprain threatens to limit his mobility against a Cincinnati Bengals pass rush that harassed Josh Allen all last week.
The 49ers’ dependence on rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy nearly became fatal in the Divisional Round. Dallas was able to pressure him into bad decisions in his first start without a touchdown pass this season — a problem that can be easily replicated by a Philadelphia Eagles defense that had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season.
Regardless, I’m sticking with my pre-playoff picks. I’m not the only one on our three-man panel who likes an underdog.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Bengals at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Bengals |
| 49ers at Eagles | 49ers | Eagles | Eagles |
| Last week: | 3-1 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Year to date: | 171-93-2 | 170-94-2 | 157-107-2 |
And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.
NFC title game: San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles
This was absolutely the way the NFC needed to be resolved. Two teams with dominant defenses and an offense filled with dynamic skill players. This is a game whose outcome may hinge on which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. The Eagles have an MVP candidate behind center. The 49ers have the NFL Draft’s most recent Mr. Irrelevant.
Troubling! But Mr. Irrevelant is Purdy, who has a 16:3 touchdown:interception ratio and an 8-0 record since taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. The MVP candidate is Hurts, who is objectively better but still recovering from a shoulder sprain that will likely only get worse against a dense pass rush and the league’s top-rated defense. Hurts only threw three passes that traveled farther than 15 yards downfield last week. This was in large part because his offense was beating the brakes off the Giants, but potentially because his shoulder isn’t all the way back yet.
Can Philadelphia get that deep game operating against a capable secondary? If they do, can Purdy avoid pressure long enough to get the ball to his playmakers and let them thrive? The Eagles are capable of folding up pockets without blitzing, which is likely how they’ll smother guys like Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel after the catch. Can the San Francisco offensive line hold up long enough to bait Philly into sending extra defenders to the pocket and create space for those guys to thrive?
I’m not sure the Niners can. As long as Hurts holds up his end of the bargain and minimizes his mistakes this should be an Eagles win. But like I said, San Francisco got me this far; I’m not ditching Purdy now.
AFC title game: Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) over the Cincinnati Bengals
Here comes a stupid pick — or, at least, a stupid a pick as can be made while backing Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Bengals and Chiefs have played three times since 2022. All three games have been three-point Cincinnati wins, including last year’s AFC title game victory at Arrowhead Stadium.
On top of that, Mahomes will be limited by an ankle sprain and no longer has Tyreek Hill to fall back on, giving Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo more leverage to bring extra pass rushers or bracket Travis Kelce without the same risk of being burned. Kansas City was the AFC’s top seed and is playing at home, but has flipped to an underdog in betting markets.
But the Chiefs beat the Jaguars last week independent of a great Mahomes performance. They won because they crushed Jacksonville up front and prevented deep shots early, forcing Trevor Lawrence into an ineffective quick-hit offense. KC did that against an average offensive line and now gets a disheveled Cincy unit dealing with injuries after a regular season in which reviews were mixed at best.
Final Official Pass Protection Rankings as measured by three independent data sources
— 3 teams lapping the field (GB, PHI, BAL)
— MIA/CIN ended up being somewhat disappointing given their investments in OL pic.twitter.com/KdWJddivjc— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 10, 2023
Granted, Joe Burrow got by with a patchwork offensive line last year, but my hope is Andy Reid has learned from 13 months of getting his heart broken by Cincinnati and cracked the code. Kansas City’s run game has improved enough to control the ball for long, Burrow-cooling drives. That Chiefs defense isn’t infallible, but since its Week 8 bye it’s been a top 10 unit roughly as good as the Eagles:
Granted, the one game in which it game up more than 370 total yards of offense came against the Bengals, soooooo … yeah. I don’t know. My gut said KC. It’s worked so far. Let’s roll with it.
