Europe must not fall into the trap of creating a “self-fulfilling prophecy” that Nato would die under a second Trump presidency and that the transatlantic bond would be over, the secretary general of the military alliance has said.
Jens Stoltenberg said leaders must engage with Donald Trump in the same way they did in 2016, no matter what the rhetoric during the US election campaign.
“I worked with him for four years,” he said. Asked if he thought Trump had changed since the end of his presidency in 2020, Stoltenberg said he could not answer but added: “I think it’s important not to create self-fulfilling prophecies in a way that assuming that a new administration in the United States will mean the end of Nato. There were concerns about that also in 2016. The reality was that Nato is stronger after four years … more troops, high readiness.”
European leaders are growing increasingly concerned about the prospect of Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, taking a controlling position in foreign policy if Trump wins in November. Vance was one of the leading opponents of the new US aid package to Ukraine, held up for months but finally approved in the spring.
On Wednesday night, Vance signalled that the US’s commanding role in global security would not be a given in a Trump administration, telling party faithful gathered at the Republican national convention in Milwaukee that US soldiers would no longer be sent overseas unnecessarily. “We will send our kids to war only if we must,” Vance said.
In an interview with the Guardian on the sidelines of the European Political Community meeting at Blenheim Palace in the UK, Stoltenberg said he remained optimistic about the future of Nato.
When the he joined in 2014, only two member states were spending 2% of their budget on defence. He said that now stood at 23 of 31 members, and he said Trump’s complaint during his presidency that Europeans were not contributing their fair share had merit.
“The reason why I’m expecting the United States to remain a strong ally … is that the main criticism from President Trump but also from the candidate for vice-president, JD Vance, has not primarily been against Nato. It has primarily been against Nato allies not spending enough on Nato on defence and that is changing.”
He said that if Trump gets in this year, all Europe would have to do is repeat its 2016 strategy.
“What we decided in 2016 was of course engage with the new administration, not least because the questions were asked about whether they [the US] were supportive of Nato, so we engaged, we sat down, and the reality was that some of the messages were very valid,” he said.
He also argued that the US would stay in Nato because the alliance’s members represented 50% of the world’s “military might”. If the US leaves it would stand alone and represent just 25% of that military capability.
Making Europe Trump-proof was high on the list of concerns raised by European leaders gathered for the EPC meeting, amid fears that not only could Trump abandon the US’s position on Ukraine but he could put pressure on Volodymyr Zelenskiy to accept a peace plan involving the loss of Russian-occupied territory.
The Norwegian prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, said that “Europe will have to do its part by taking a larger share of the costs than we now do” in Nato. “We have to demonstrate the value of this alliance and why we stand together. And I think that case is pretty strong,” he said.
Støre said proofing Europe against Trump was on the agenda on the sidelines of the conference, opened by Keir Starmer and Zelenskiy who recalled Winston Churchill’s resilience and bravery. “We need to be in a good discussion with the US,” he said.
Ireland’s taoiseach, Simon Harris, said he was prepared to use his country’s special relationship with the US to try to bridge any gaps after the election.
An “incoming president may or may not wish to utilise that bridge, but we will stand ready to work with whoever is the democratically elected president of the United States,” he said.
