The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.23%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.45%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25) are down -0.25%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM25) are down -0.41%.
Stock indexes today are mildly lower on concern about the economic threat from US trade policies. Today’s economic news showed weaker-than-expected household demand and signs of sticky inflation after US Feb personal spending rose less than expected and the Feb core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose more than expected.
Fed comments Thursday evening were also bearish for stocks after Boston Fed President Collins said that it looks "inevitable" that tariffs will boost inflation, at least in the near term. Also, Richmond Fed President Barkin said rapid changes to US trade policy have created "a sense of instability" in the business community, and the associated decline in sentiment could "quiet demand."
US Feb personal spending rose +0.4% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m. Feb personal income rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and the largest increase in 13 months.
The US Feb core PCE price index rose +0.4% m/m and +2.8% y/y, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y.
Stocks have been under pressure over the past three weeks due to fears that US tariffs will weaken economic growth and corporate earnings. On March 4, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and doubled the tariff on Chinese goods to 20% from 10%. On March 8, Mr. Trump reiterated that he would impose reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on foreign nations on April 2. On Wednesday, President Trump signed a proclamation to implement a 25% tariff on US auto imports, effective April 3. The tariffs will initially target vehicles fully assembled outside the US and, by May 3, will expand to include automobile parts made outside the US. Mr. Trump said the tariffs were "permanent," and he was not interested in negotiating any exceptions.
The markets are discounting the chances at 16% for a -25 bp rate cut after the May 6-7 FOMC meeting.
Overseas stock markets today are lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-week low and is down -0.45%. China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down -0.67%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 2-week low and closed down -1.80%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are up +12 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -6.0 bp to 4.299%. June T-notes are climbing today on carryover support from a rally in 10-year German bunds to a 3-week high. Also, there is some supply relief after the conclusion of this week’s Treasury auctions of $211 billion of T-notes and floating rate notes. US economic news today was mixed for T-notes after Feb personal spending rose less than expected but the Feb core PCE price index rose more than expected.
European bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 3-week low of 2.707% and is down -4.3 bp to 2.730%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -7.8 bp to 4.705%.
The Eurozone Mar economic confidence index unexpectedly fell -1.1 to 95.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 96.7.
The ECB's Feb 1-year inflation expectations were unchanged from Jan at 2.6%, stronger than expectations of 2.5%.
German Mar unemployment rose +26,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of +10,000. The Mar unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to a 4-1/2 year high of 6.3%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 6.2%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 85% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the April 17 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Chip makers are falling today and are weighing on the broader market. KLA Corp (KLAC), ON Semiconductor (ON), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Microchip Technology (MCHP) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) are down more than -1%.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2026 net revenue of $11.15 billion to $11.30 billion, weaker than the consensus of $11.31 billion.
Economic concerns are undercutting travel and hotel stocks today. Delta Air Lines (DAL) is down more than -2%. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Carnival (CCL), Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN), Booking Holdings (BKNG), and Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) are down more than -1%.
Oxford Industries (OXM) is down more than -7% after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.70 to $1.90, well below the consensus of $2.73.
Leidos Holdings (LDOS) and Oracle (ORCL) are down more than -1% after the US Department of Defense said it would terminate a plan to use both companies' software to manage its civilian workforce as part of the Pentagon's cost-cutting efforts.
WR Berkley (WRB) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance agreed to buy 15% of the company's outstanding shares.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) is up more than +4% after it was selected by the US Space Force for a $5.6 billion program.
US Steel (X) is up more than +3% after Semafor reported that the company is still in talks with Nippon Steel about a deal that would preserve their proposed merger.
AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) is up more than +3% to lead mining stocks higher as the price of gold climbed to a new record high.
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) is up more than +2% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $42.
AppLovin (APP) is up more than +1% after Loop Capital Markets said the stock remains a top pick and would be "aggressive buyers" on weakness.
Earnings Reports (3/28/2025)
Acrivon Therapeutics Inc (ACRV), Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM), American Vanguard Corp (AVD), Biomea Fusion Inc (BMEA), Cadiz Inc (CDZI), Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Despegar.com Corp (DESP), Empire Petroleum Corp (EP), FutureFuel Corp (FF), Galectin Therapeutics Inc (GALT), Golden Matrix Group Inc (GMGI), Harrow Inc (HROW), Humacyte Inc (HUMA), Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD), Maui Land & Pineapple Co Inc (MLP), Stratus Properties Inc (STRS), Taylor Devices Inc (TAYD), Verde Clean Fuels Inc (VGAS), Zspace Inc (ZSPC).
