June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM24) are down -0.03%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM24) are up +0.12% this morning as market participants looked ahead to a fresh batch of U.S. economic data and comments from a host of Federal Reserve officials.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages closed mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching a new all-time high and the blue-chip Dow dropping to a 1-1/2 week low. ON Semiconductor (ON) slid over -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor company announced plans to cut its global workforce by about 1,000 employees. Also, cruise line operators retreated after Bank of America said that cruise pricing in early June was “modestly softer” compared to May, with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) slumping more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500. In addition, RH (RH) tumbled about -17% after the company reported a much wider-than-expected Q1 adjusted loss per share. On the bullish side, Adobe (ADBE) climbed over +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the creative software maker posted upbeat Q2 results, gave a strong Q3 digital media net new annual recurring revenue forecast, and raised its full-year EPS guidance.
Economic data on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low of 65.6 in June, weaker than expectations of 72.1. Also, the University of Michigan’s June year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged from May at 3.3%, above expectations of a decline to 3.2%, while 5-year implied inflation expectations rose to a 7-month high of 3.1%, higher than expectations of no change at 3.0%. At the same time, the U.S. import and export price indexes for May unexpectedly fell to -0.4% m/m and -0.6% m/m, respectively.
“[Friday’s] softer-than-expected reading puts consumer sentiment at roughly the midpoint of where it has been over the past two years. The growth in prices may be coming down, but prices are not and that is weighing on households, particularly those in the middle most apt to feel the squeeze,” Wells Fargo’s Tim Quinlan said.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated Friday that she continues to view inflation risks as tilted to the upside despite the latest softer-than-expected inflation figures. The Cleveland Fed chief also said that the median projection of policymakers’ latest forecasts, which indicated only one interest-rate cut this year, aligns closely with her own outlook for the economy. Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that the central bank can take its time and monitor incoming data before initiating interest rate cuts. “We need to see more evidence to convince us that inflation is well on our way back down to 2%,” Kashkari said on CBS’s Face the Nation.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 11.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in July and a 60.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
In other news, Goldman Sachs strategists raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5,600 from 5,200 on Friday, citing “milder-than-average negative earnings revisions and a higher fair value P/E multiple.”
In the coming week, investors will be monitoring a spate of economic data releases, including U.S. Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Business Inventories, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Current Account, Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, S&P Global Composite PMI (preliminary), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), Existing Home Sales, and Leading Index.
In addition, a slew of Fed officials will be making appearances throughout the week, including Williams, Harker, Cook, Barkin, Logan, Kugler, Kashkari, Daly, and Goolsbee.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock markets will be closed on Wednesday for observance of the Juneteenth National Independence Day federal holiday.
Today, investors will likely focus on the U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the June NY Empire State manufacturing index will stand at -12.50, compared to the previous value of -15.60.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.241%, up +0.72%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.33% this morning as investors shook off negative sentiment from last week and turned their attention to the interest rate decision from the Bank of England later in the week. Technology stocks led the gains on Monday. Final data from the statistical office Istat showed Monday that the annual inflation rate in Italy held steady at 0.8% in May, confirming the preliminary reading. Separately, Eurostat said Monday that annual labor costs in the eurozone were revised higher in the first quarter. Meanwhile, investors are anticipating the Bank of England’s policy rate decision on Thursday, with the central bank widely expected to maintain its Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh straight meeting. A looming election and persistent price pressures are contributing to the argument to postpone any rate cuts until at least August. In other news, European Union leaders will discuss policy objectives for the next five years, spanning from defense to the economy, as well as decisions on top EU jobs during their meeting in Brussels on Monday.
European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane stated on Monday that the ECB remains confident inflation will return to its 2% target next year despite some “noisy” fluctuations along the way.
Italy’s CPI and Eurozone’s Labor Cost Index were released today.
The Italian May CPI has been reported at +0.2% m/m and +0.8% y/y, in line with expectations.
Eurozone Labor Cost Index came in at +5.10% y/y in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of +4.90% y/y.
Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.55% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.83%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors digested mixed economic data from the country. Property stocks slumped on Monday after data revealed that new-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, dropped 0.71% from April, marking the steepest decline since October 2014, highlighting ongoing weakness in the country’s real estate sector. Separately, figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that industrial output and fixed-asset investment fell short of analyst expectations, though retail sales grew more sharply than expected due to a holiday boost. In addition, data on Friday showed that new bank lending in China rebounded much less than anticipated in May. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China kept its one-year medium-term lending facility interest rate unchanged at 2.5% on Monday, in line with expectations. China’s official Financial News reported on Monday that there remained potential for rate cuts, yet acknowledged internal and external constraints on policy. In other news, China’s commerce ministry announced Monday that the country initiated an anti-dumping investigation into pork imports from the European Union, potentially in response to recent tariff moves by the EU. In corporate news, Baoshan Iron and Steel slid over -4% following its withdrawal of the application to list its subsidiary, China Baowu Steel Group, on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The Chinese May Industrial Production stood at +5.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +6.2% y/y.
The Chinese May Retail Sales came in at +3.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
The Chinese Fixed Asset Investment arrived at +4.0% y/y in the first five months of 2024, weaker than expectations of +4.2% y/y.
The Chinese May Unemployment Rate was at 5.0%, in line with expectations.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today as a risk-off mood prevailed amid concerns over political turmoil in Europe. Real estate and energy stocks led the declines on Monday. Chip-related stocks also retreated. The Cabinet Office reported Monday that Japan’s core machinery orders fell in April from the prior month for the first time in three months. Meanwhile, former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai said Monday that the BOJ is likely to reduce its monthly bond buying by around 2 trillion yen ($12.7 billion) in new guidance due next month while delaying any interest rate hikes until at least September. In corporate news, Toyota Motor Corp. fell over -2% after the auto giant announced Friday it will continue to suspend production of three models with improperly obtained certifications until the end of July. Also, Kadokawa slumped more than -9% amid uncertainty over the impact of a cyberattack on its earnings. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +12.65% to 18.35.
The Japanese April Core Machinery Orders arrived at -2.9% m/m and +0.7% y/y, compared to expectations of -2.9% m/m and -0.1% y/y.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Autodesk (ADSK) climbed more than +4% in pre-market trading following a report from the WSJ stating that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a $500 million stake in the company and is advocating for changes.
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $81.
Best Buy (BBY) advanced more than +3% in pre-market trading after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $106.
Greif (GEF) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $77.
Toll Brothers (TOL) gained more than +1% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $124.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - June 17th
Lennar (LEN), La-Z-Boy (LZB).
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