The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.30%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.55%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.26%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25) are down -0.25%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM25) are down -0.21%.
Stock indexes today are under pressure from mixed signals from China and mixed corporate earnings results. Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government is considering suspending the 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment and industrial chemicals like ethane. However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reiterated that China isn't in negotiations with the US over tariffs and that the US "should not mislead the public."
Corporate earnings results are mixed. Intel is down more than -8% after giving an outlook that was weaker than expected. Also, T-Mobile US is down more than -8% after reporting fewer-than-expected new mobile phone subscribers in Q1. In addition, Eastman Chemical is down more than -4% after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS below consensus, citing "tariffs between the US and China." On the positive side, Alphabet is up more than +1% after reporting Q1 revenue and profit that exceeded expectations.
Goldman Sachs reported today that foreign investors sold $63 billion of US equities since March 1 and said, "This dynamic poses a substantial risk to equity valuations because foreign investors entered 2025 with a record 18% ownership share of US equities."
The markets are discounting the chances at 8% for a -25 bp rate cut after the May 6-7 FOMC meeting.
This week's market focus will be on Q1 corporate earnings results and any changes to US trade policies. Today brings the revised University of Michigan April consumer sentiment index (expected no change at 50.8).
Q1 earnings reporting season is in full swing. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, the market consensus is for Q1 year-over-year earnings growth of +6.7% for the S&P 500 stocks, down from expectations of +11.1% in early November. Full-year 2025 corporate profits for the S&P 500 are seen rising +9.4%, down from the forecast of +12.5% in early January.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 3-week high and is up +0.74%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.07%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a 3-1/2 week high and closed up + 1.90%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are up +6 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.5 bp to 4.270%. June T-notes today are moving higher on carryover support from Thursday on dovish Fed comments when Cleveland Fed President Hammack said clear data could prompt the Fed to cut interest rates in June, and Fed Governor Waller said he would support Fed rate cuts if tariffs led to job losses. Short covering is also supporting T-notes as bond dealers lift their short hedges put on during this week's Treasury auctions of $213 billion of T-notes and floating-rate notes.
European government bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +1.8 bp to 2.466%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -1.7 bp to 4.484%.
UK Mar retail sales ex-auto fuel unexpectedly rose +0.5% m/m versus expectations of a -0.5% m/m decline.
ECB Governing Council member Holzmann said, "So far, the net impact from the US tariff announcements seems to be rather deflationary than inflationary."
Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the June 5 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Intel (INTC) is down more than -8% to lead chip stocks lower after forecasting Q2 revenue of $11.2 billion-$12.4 billion, below the consensus of $12.88 billion. Other chip makers are also sliding in the news. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Analog Devices (ADI), ON Semiconductor Corp (ON), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) are down more than -1%.
T-Mobile US (TMUS) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting 495,000 new monthly mobile phone subscribers in Q1, below the consensus of 507,000.
Aon Plc (AON) is down more than -6% after reporting Q1 revenue of $4.70 billion, below the consensus of $4.83 billion.
Skechers USA (SKX) is down more than -4% after saying it is not providing guidance and withdrawing its previous annual outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Eastman Chemical (EMN) is down more than -4% after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.70-$190, weaker than the consensus of $2.20, citing factors including "tariffs between the US and China."
Gilead Sciences (GILD) is down more than -3% after reporting Q1 revenue of $6.67 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.79 billion.
Charter Communications (CHTR) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 adjusted Ebitda of $5.80 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.57 billion.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +1% after reporting Q1 revenue ex-TAC of $76.49 billion, stronger than the consensus of $75.4 billion.
VeriSign (VRSN) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 new domain registrations processed rose +6.3% y/y to 10.1 million.
Digital Realty Trust (DLR) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 core FFO/share of $1.77, better than the consensus of $1.71.
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is up more than +3% after Texas Capital initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $59.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) is up more than +1% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $100.
Earnings Reports (4/25/2025)
AbbVie Inc (ABBV), Aon PLC (AON), Centene Corp (CNC), Charter Communications Inc (CHTR), Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL), HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA), LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB), Phillips 66 (PSX), Schlumberger NV (SLB).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
