March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.05%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.08% this morning as investors awaited a new round of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and an earnings report from “Magnificent Seven” member Amazon.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Johnson Controls (JCI) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat FQ1 results and raised its FY25 adjusted EPS guidance. Also, chip stocks gained ground after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to a 7-week low, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbing more than +6% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +5%. In addition, Amgen (AMGN) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results. On the bearish side, Alphabet (GOOGL) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the Google parent reported weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue as growth in its cloud business slowed. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell more than -6% after the chipmaker posted weaker-than-expected Q4 data center revenue, and its full-year forecast for the data center business failed to impress investors.
The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by 183K in January, up from 176K in December (revised from 122K) and beating the consensus estimate of 148K. Also, the final estimate of the U.S. January S&P Global services PMI was revised higher to 52.9 from the 52.8 preliminary reading. At the same time, the U.S. ISM services index fell to 52.8 in January, weaker than expectations of 54.2. In addition, the U.S. December trade deficit was -$98.40B, wider than expectations of -$96.50B and the largest deficit in nearly three years.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated on Wednesday that policymakers require more time to assess the trajectory of the U.S. economy and inflation amid heightened uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies, reinforcing expectations for rates to remain unchanged. Also, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he is comfortable keeping interest rates on hold until policymakers gain a clearer understanding of the overall impact of the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and taxes.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 85.5% chance of no rate change and a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the Trump administration’s primary focus in lowering borrowing costs is on 10-year Treasury yields rather than the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate. He stated in an interview with Fox Business that regarding the Fed, “I will only talk about what they’ve done, not what I think they should do from now on.” Bessent reiterated his belief that increasing energy supply would aid in reducing inflation.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues, with investors looking forward to fresh reports from notable companies today, including Amazon.com (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Philip Morris (PM), Honeywell (HON), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Fortinet (FTNT), and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 214K, compared to last week’s number of 207K.
U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity preliminary data will also be closely watched today. Economists forecast Q4 Unit Labor Costs to be +3.4% q/q and Nonfarm Productivity to be +1.5% q/q, compared to the third-quarter numbers of +0.8% q/q and +2.2% q/q, respectively.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.435%, up +0.34%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.91% this morning as investors digested a slew of corporate earnings reports and awaited the monetary policy decision from the Bank of England. Mining and healthcare stocks led the gains on Thursday. Data from the Federal Statistical Office released on Thursday showed that Germany’s monthly factory orders rebounded strongly in December, driven by a jump in aerospace orders. Separately, data from Eurostat revealed that the Eurozone’s monthly retail sales fell more than expected in December, as consumers opted to save rather than spend amid a sluggish economic environment. Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to the BoE’s monetary policy verdict later in the session, with the central bank widely expected to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. In corporate news, Ap Moller Maersk A/S (MAERB.C.DX) surged over +7% after the shipping giant posted a better-than-expected Q4 profit. Also, AstraZeneca Plc (AZN.LN) climbed more than +4% after the drugmaker reported upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus 2025 sales guidance. In addition, Aurubis AG (NDA.D.DX) rose over +2% after Europe’s largest copper producer reported an FQ1 pretax profit that topped expectations.
Germany’s Factory Orders and Eurozone’s Retail Sales data were released today.
The German December Factory Orders arrived at +6.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.9% m/m.
Eurozone December Retail Sales came in at -0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.27%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.61%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher and hit a 1-month high today. The rally was driven by strong gains in AI-related stocks, fueled by enthusiasm over Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s breakthrough. Adding to the positive sentiment, the U.S. Postal Service reversed its earlier decision to halt inbound shipments from mainland China and Hong Kong. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring developments related to tariffs. Beijing’s response to the 10% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods was viewed as restrained, alleviating fears of a global trade war. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian urged dialogue “based on equality and mutual respect” between China and the U.S. following the implementation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to speak soon, though the exact timing of the conversation remains uncertain. In corporate news, BYD jumped +10% following reports that it will unveil its advanced intelligent driving system at an event on February 10th.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street as worries over trade tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners eased. Electronics and brokerage stocks led the gains on Thursday. The benchmark index initially moved higher but then briefly trimmed its gains as the yen strengthened following comments from a hawkish member of the Bank of Japan’s policy board. BOJ board member Naoki Tamura stated on Thursday that the central bank should raise short-term interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of fiscal 2025 “to reduce upside risk to prices and achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner.” However, the yen pared most of its gains against the dollar in afternoon trade, helping equities recover some gains. In other news, data from the Ministry of Finance revealed on Thursday that foreign investors offloaded a net 315.2 billion yen ($2.07 billion) worth of Japanese shares in the week ending February 1st, as Japan’s AI-related companies faced pressure following the emergence of a lower-cost Chinese AI model. In corporate news, Renesas Electronics surged over +12% after delivering strong earnings results. Also, Nomura Holdings gained more than +3% after the company’s nine-month net profit more than doubled. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -4.80% to 21.63.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Honeywell International (HON) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that the industrial conglomerate plans to split into three independent companies.
Ford Motor (F) dropped more than -5% in pre-market trading after the second-largest U.S. automaker issued light FY25 adjusted EBIT guidance.
Arm Holdings (ARM) slid over -3% in pre-market trading after the chip designer provided a cautious FQ4 revenue forecast.
Qualcomm (QCOM) slumped more than -4% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected FQ1 IP licensing revenue.
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) plummeted about -30% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor company said it anticipates a 20% to 25% reduction in its share of the business supplying radio frequency components to Apple, its largest customer.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - February 6th
Amazon.com (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Philip Morris (PM), Honeywell (HON), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Fortinet (FTNT), Air Products (APD), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Cloudflare (NET), Roblox (RBLX), Suncor Energy (SU), Kenvue (KVUE), Xcel Energy (XEL), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Equifax (EFX), Take-Two (TTWO), Monolithic (MPWR), Hershey (HSY), Mettler-Toledo (MTD), Microchip (MCHP), Kellanova (K), Tradeweb Markets (TW), Pinterest (PINS), BCE Inc (BCE), Expedia (EXPE), Zimmer Biomet (ZBH), VeriSign (VRSN), Labcorp Holdings (LH), SS&Cs (SSNC), Illumina (ILMN), CMS Energy (CMS), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), Snap-On (SNA), Principal Financial (PFG), Yum China Holdings (YUMC), Tapestry (TPR), Warner Music (WMG), XPO (XPO), Entegris (ENTG), Ralph Lauren A (RL), Neurocrine (NBIX), Reinsurance of America (RGA), Aptiv (APTV), Blue Owl Capital (OWL), Regency Centers (REG), Camden Property (CPT), ITT (ITT), Paylocity Holdng (PCTY), Skechers (SKX), Doximity (DOCS), AptarGroup (ATR), nVent Electric (NVT), Encompass Health (EHC), Onto Innovation (ONTO), Bill Com (BILL), MACOM Tech (MTSI), ADS (WMS), Genpact (G), Fortune Brands (FBIN), EastGroup Properties (EGP), Open Text (OTEX), AGCO (AGCO), Mohawk Industries (MHK), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), MarketAxesss (MKTX), Colliers International (CIGI), BorgWarner (BWA), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Lumentum Holdings (LITE), Post (POST), Arrow Electronics (ARW), Rithm Capital (RITM), Darling Ingredients (DAR), Lincoln National (LNC), Insight Enterprises (NSIT), Affiliated Managers (AMG), Gates Industrial Corp (GTES), Qualys (QLYS), Cousins Properties (CUZ), Stepstone (STEP), ELF Beauty (ELF), Valvoline (VVV), Exponent (EXPO), Belden (BDC), InterDigital (IDCC), AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB), Phillips Edison Co (PECO), Maximus (MMS), Victory Capital (VCTR), CNO Financial (CNO), Prestige Consumer Health (PBH), MDU Resources (MDU), Power Integrations (POWI), Under Armour (UAA), Haemonetics (HAE), ESCO Technologies (ESE), COPT Defense Properties (CDP), Patrick (PATK), NMI Holdings (NMIH), Powell Industries (POWL), CleanSpark (CLSK), Synaptics (SYNA), Peloton Interactive (PTON), Hub Group (HUBG), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Spectrum Brands (SPB), Inter and Co A (INTR), Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD), Werner (WERN), Lionsgate Studios (LION), Omnicell (OMCL), Lions Gate (LGFa), Sonos (SONO), Ladder Capital A (LADR), QuinStreet (QNST), Centrus Energy (LEU), Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH), Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE), ViaSat (VSAT), PROS (PRO), Universal Logistics (ULH), Natural Grocers Vitamin (NGVC), Embecta (EMBC), Canada Goose (GOOS), Liquidity Services (LQDT).
