March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.02%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.08% this morning as market participants look ahead to the release of crucial producer inflation data.
Stock futures initially moved sharply lower on concerns about whether Washington lawmakers will avert a government shutdown this weekend. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated his party would block a Republican spending bill to prevent a government shutdown on Saturday and called on the GOP to accept a Democratic proposal to extend funding through April 11th instead. The impending shutdown adds another layer of concern for investors already grappling with a rising unemployment rate, federal workforce reductions, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. The Magnificent Seven stocks climbed, with Tesla (TSLA) surging over +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and Nvidia (NVDA) advancing more than +6% to lead gainers in the Dow. Also, Intel (INTC) rose over +4% after Reuters reported that TSMC pitched chip designers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom about acquiring stakes in a joint venture that would operate Intel’s factories. In addition, Groupon (GRPN) jumped more than +43% after the e-commerce company issued above-consensus FY25 revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Brown-Forman (BF.B) slumped over -5% after the European Union launched counter-tariffs against U.S. goods.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose +0.2% m/m in February, better than expectations of +0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to +2.8% in February from +3.0% in January, better than expectations of +2.9%. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.2% m/m and +3.1% y/y in February, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y.
“[Yesterday’s] cooler-than-expected CPI reading was a breath of fresh air, but no one should expect the Fed to start cutting rates immediately. The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see posture, and given the uncertainty of how trade and immigration policy will impact the economy, they’re going to want to see more than one month of friendly inflation data,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.0% probability of no rate change and a 3.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s central bank meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like DocuSign (DOCU), Dollar General (DG), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. February PPI will come in at +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +0.4% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect February figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y, matching January’s numbers.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 226K, compared to 221K last week.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.331%, up +0.35%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.15% this morning as investors assess the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting approach to trade tariffs on global trade relations. President Trump on Wednesday threatened to impose additional tariffs on European Union goods, shortly after the EU announced retaliatory levies in response to the U.S. metals tariffs. Automobile stocks, which are sensitive to trade barriers, led the declines on Thursday. Bank stocks also lost ground. Limiting losses, defense stocks climbed. Data from Eurostat released on Thursday showed that Eurozone industrial production recovered at the start of the year, driven by a rapid expansion in Germany. Meanwhile, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is set to discuss on Thursday a 500 billion euro ($543 billion) fund for infrastructure along with significant changes to borrowing rules aimed at strengthening defense. In corporate news, IG Group Holdings Plc (IGG.LN) gained over +4% after the British online trading platform posted a 12% year-over-year increase in FQ3 revenue.
Eurozone’s Industrial Production data was released today.
Eurozone January Industrial Production stood at +0.8% m/m and 0.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and -0.9% y/y.
Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.39%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.08%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended lower today, tracking losses across most regional markets as worries over a global trade war dampened sentiment. Semiconductor and software stocks led the declines on Thursday. Limiting losses, bank and energy stocks advanced. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that the U.S. would retaliate against the European Union’s countermeasures to his new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing the likelihood of further escalation in his global trade war. Adding to the negative sentiment, some analysts have expressed doubts about China’s ability to achieve its economic targets, as laid out in the recently concluded Two Sessions annual meetings. Meanwhile, UBS downgraded China’s technology sector to Neutral from Attractive on Wednesday, citing strong year-to-date gains and concerns about future growth prospects. “We recommend investors book profits on China’s tech sector and wait for greater clarity on U.S. tariff policies before entering again,” analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office said in a note. In corporate news, Wharf Holdings slid over -4% in Hong Kong after the developer reported a 22% year-over-year drop in full-year underlying profit.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index gave up earlier gains and closed slightly lower today as concerns over U.S. trade policy and a stronger yen weighed on sentiment. Losses in automobile and electronics stocks offset gains in financial and railway stocks on Thursday. The yen strengthened and bond yields climbed on Thursday following comments from the Bank of Japan chief, which fueled expectations for an early interest rate hike. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told the country’s parliament that he anticipates real wages and consumer spending to improve as import inflation eases while solid wage gains continue. Meanwhile, the BOJ is expected to hold rates steady at next week’s policy meeting, though the board might consider a hike as early as May, depending on domestic inflation and market volatility driven by U.S. trade policy uncertainties, according to sources cited by Reuters. In other news, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Bank of Japan officials have several reasons for refraining from bond market intervention, despite benchmark yields reaching their highest levels since 2008. Officials have resolved not to intervene in the market unless extreme movements occur, as they fear setting thresholds for traders that could impact market functioning, the report said. In corporate news, Mitsubishi Electric rose over +1% after announcing its target of a 10% operating margin in its defense business by FY31, with FY25 orders projected at 600 billion yen and a 7% margin. It also plans to expand its missile defense and cross-domain operations under Japan’s 43.5 trillion yen defense buildup. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -3.17% to 26.91.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Adobe (ADBE) slid over -4% in pre-market trading after the software giant gave a disappointing FQ2 revenue forecast.
Intel (INTC) surged more than +10% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker appointed Lip-Bu Tan, the former chief executive of Cadence Design Systems, as its new CEO.
SentinelOne (S) plunged over -13% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity maker issued below-consensus FY26 revenue guidance.
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) slumped more than -8% in pre-market trading after the retailer said it expects FY25 sales to be down by low single digits.
UiPath (PATH) tumbled over -16% in pre-market trading after the software company provided weak full-year revenue guidance.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - March 13th
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Dollar General (DG), DocuSign (DOCU), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Futu (FUTU), Rubrik (RBRK), ServiceTitan (TTAN), Pharming Group (PHAR), Semtech (SMTC), Weibo Corp (WB), D Wave Quantum (QBTS), EverCommerce (EVCM), Mach Natural (MNR), Pagerduty (PD), Afya (AFYA), G-III Apparel (GIII), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH), Cion Investment (CION), Xponential Fitness (XPOF), Karat Packaging (KRT), Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW), Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO), Akebia Ther (AKBA), Vaalco Energy (EGY), Acacia Research (ACTG), Opal Fuels (OPAL), Nyxoah (NYXH), Ballard (BLDP), Pangaea Logistic (PANL), Regenxbio Inc (RGNX), Turtle Beach (TBCH), Zumiez (ZUMZ), Blade Air Mobility (BLDE), WM Technology (MAPS), Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG), Kingstone (KINS), The Joint Corp (JYNT), Portman Ridge Finance (PTMN), Fiscalnote Holdings (NOTE), Cellectis (CLLS), Perma-Fix Inc (PESI), Seres Therapeutics Inc (MCRB), Plby Group (PLBY), Origin Materials (ORGN), Lifetime Brands (LCUT), Veritone (VERI).
