The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.59%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.90%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.29%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH25) are down -0.09%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH25) are up +0.37%.
Stock indexes today are under pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial falling to a 5-3/4 month low. Stocks are attempting to stabilize after Monday’s plunge. Short covering emerged in stock index futures overnight after Bloomberg reported that President Trump will meet with the Business Roundtable, including top US business executives, later today.
Stocks plummeted Monday on concern that President Trump’s trade policies and cuts to government spending will derail economic growth. Magnificent Seven stocks are moving higher today, while a -7% slump in Verizon Communications is leading telecommunication stocks lower and weighing on the Dow Jones Industrials.
Stocks have been under pressure over the past week due to fears that US tariffs will start a global trade war that will weaken economic growth and corporate earnings. Last Tuesday, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and doubled the tariff on Chinese goods to 20% from 10%. However, Mr. Trump granted US automakers a one-month tariff exemption and exempted tariffs for one month on Canada and Mexico for all goods and services compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, Mr. Trump reiterated that he would impose reciprocal tariffs on foreign nations on April 2, as planned.
Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) today recovered from a 4-month low and is up more than +2%. Bitcoin has been under pressure since last Thursday on disappointment in President Trump’s order to create a strategic crypto reserve to be stocked initially with crypto forfeited to the government in legal proceedings rather than new outright crypto purchases.
Market attention this week will focus on Wednesday’s Feb US CPI report, which is expected to ease slightly to +2.9% y/y from +3.0% y/y in Jan. The Feb core CPI is expected to ease to +3.2% y/y from +3.3% y/y in Jan. Also, US trade policies will be in focus, with 25% tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminum scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Feb final-demand PPI is expected to ease to +3.2% y/y from +3.5% y/y in Jan. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s March consumer sentiment index is expected to fall -1.2 to 63.5. Finally, the markets will also see if Congress can approve a spending bill to avert a government shutdown ahead of a March 15 deadline.
The markets are discounting the chances at 4% for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on March 18-19.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 1-month low and is down -0.17%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed up +0.41%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 5-3/4 month low and closed down by -0.64%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are down -4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.5 bp to 4.228%. June T-notes today are slightly lower as a recovery in stocks has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury later today will auction $58 billion of 3-year T-notes as part of this week’s $119 billion auction package of T-notes and T-bonds.
European bond yields today are moving higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +4.5 bp to 2.878%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +2.9 bp to 4.673%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 51% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the April 17 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
Magnificent Seven stocks today are moving higher, recovering some of Monday’s plunge. Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +4% and Nvidia (NVDA) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) are up more than +1%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are up +0.1%.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after accelerating the completion of its $2.5 billion share repurchase program to July 2025 and announcing the end of its free checked-bag policy.
GE Healthcare (GEHC) is up more than +3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $100.
Elevance Health (ELV) is up more than +1% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $34.15-$24.85, the midpoint above the consensus of $34.45.
ASML Holding NV (ASML) is up more than +1% after signing a five-year strategic partnership agreement with Imec, focusing on developing high-end nodes using ASML systems.
Teradyne (TER) is down more than -16% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q2 revenue flat to down -10% q/q.
Telecommunication stocks are falling today, led by a -7% fall in Verizon Communications (VZ) to lead losers in the Dow Jones industrials after company executives said Q1 is “challenging” from a competitive standpoint. AT&T (T) and T-Mobile US (TMUS) are also down more than -3%.
Oracle (ORCL) is down more than -4% after reporting Q3 adjusted revenue of $14.13 billion, weaker than the consensus of $14.39 billion.
Kohl’s (KSS) is down more than -17% after projecting comparable sales this year will drop -6%, much weaker than the consensus of -0.55%.
Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) is down more than -4% after reporting Q2 US adjusted operating profit of $455 million, below the consensus of $485.1 million.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is down more than -3% after cutting its Q1 adjusted EPS forecast to 30 cents-50 cents from a previous estimate of 70 cents-$1.00, well below the consensus of 83 cents.
Earnings Reports (3/11/2025)
Casey’s General Stores Inc (CASY), Ciena Corp (CIEN), Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS), Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG), Kohl’s Corp (KSS).
