The stock market rally suffered sharp losses, with the major indexes breaking below key levels as the August jobs report and other weak reports raised economic growth fears. Nvidia and the Nasdaq led the downside. The odds of a larger Fed rate on Sept. 18 are rising. Broadcom and Dick's Sporting Goods were earnings losers. Tesla rallied on strong China sales and its latest FSD rollout plans, but fell back.
Stock Market Slumps
The S&P 500 undercut its 50-day line during the week while the Nasdaq came close to undercutting the low of its Aug. 13 follow-through day. Economic data, including the August jobs report, came in weak, but investors are now pricing in a larger Fed rate cut. AI stocks continued to struggle, with Nvidia and Broadcom among the losers. Treasury yields tumbled, with the yield curve no longer inverted. Crude oil prices hit 2024 lows while gasoline futures hit a three-year low.
Economic Data Weakens
Employers added 142,000 payroll jobs, including 118,000 in the private sector. Both fell moderately short of forecasts, even as soft job growth in June and especially July was revised sharply lower. Over the past three months, the private sector has added just 96,000 jobs per month. Excluding the March-April 2020 employment crash, that's the weakest hiring since June 2012. Other reports seemed to confirm an increasingly sluggish growth climate. Job openings fell to 7.67 million at the end of July, well below views and the lowest since January 2021. The ISM manufacturing index showed another month of contraction, as new orders and production gauges undercut 45, well below the neutral 50 level. Meanwhile, the Fed's Beige Book report found that economic activity grew slightly in three regional Fed districts in August, while stagnating or contracting in the other nine.
Markets see only a 25-basis-point move in September, but expect at least 100 basis points by year-end.
Broadcom Sales Outlook Light
Broadcom reported fiscal Q3 earnings fell 18% while sales jumped 47% to $13.07 billion, thanks to its acquisition of VMware. Both beat views. Excluding VMware, Broadcom's sales rose 4%. For the current quarter, the chipmaker and infrastructure software provider forecast "approximately" $14 billion in sales. Analysts were modeling $14.11 billion. It did raise its target for AI chip sales for fiscal 2024 to $12 billion, up from over $11 billion previously. Shares tumbled.
Tesla Round-Trips China, FSD Hopes
Tesla revealed a "roadmap" for its Full-Self Driving efforts, above and beyond its upcoming Oct. 10 robotaxi event. It aims to release FSD for the Cybertruck this month with a new FSD V13 coming in October. Tesla said it aims to launch FSD in China and Europe in Q1 2025, assuming regulatory approval. That could provide a new revenue stream for Tesla, though FSD faces a number of competing driver-assist offerings in China. Meanwhile, Tesla sold 86,697 China-made EVs in August, including exports to foreign markets, according to industry data. That was up 17% vs. July and 3% vs. a year earlier. Tesla stock jumped, retaking a key level, but fell back Friday.
What's On Tap: Apple To Unveil iPhone 16; Oracle, Adobe Earnings Due
BYD Leads China EV Sales
Tesla archrival BYD reported record August sales of 373,083, up 36% vs. a year earlier and 9% vs. July. PHEVs surged 73% vs. a year earlier to 222,384. BYD appears to be production constrained right now. Meanwhile, Li Auto and Nio reported month-to-month declines, to 48,122 and 20,176, respectively. XPeng and Zeekr posted big increases vs. July. XPeng and Nio are expected big sales increases going forward for their Tesla rivals.
Nio reported a narrower loss that was roughly in line with Q2 views, along with a 98% revenue gain. The China EV maker guided up on Q3 revenue and cited strong preorders for its Tesla rival Onvo L60, which will begin deliveries by the end of September.
Samsara Jumps On Strong Earnings
Q2 earnings of 5 cents per share topped views for a steady 1-cent gain. Revenue rose 37% to $300 million, while annual recurring revenue from subscriptions rose 36% to $1.26 billion, both also topping estimates. topping estimates of $1.25 billion. For the current quarter ending in October, Samsara guided fractionally higher at the midpoint. The internet of things AI play provides sensors and cloud-based software to manage and monitor vehicle fleets and industrial operations. Shares jumped back above a buy point.
Dick's Falls On Outlook
Dick's Sporting Goods on Wednesday reported a 55% hike in earnings, the best gain in years and well above FactSet forecasts. Sales rose nearly 8% to $3.47 billion, also topping. Comparable sales rose 4.5% for the quarter, also outpacing analyst estimates. The sporting retailer raised its 2024 earnings guidance modestly, but by less than the Q2 beat. The midpoint of the outlook was below FactSet estimates for $13.84 per share, indicating a weaker second half. Dick's also lifted its comparable sales forecast but maintained its revenue outlook. DKS stock fell sharply.
In Brief
Hewlett Packard Enterprise earnings rose 2% while revenue grew 10% to $7.7 billion, slightly beating Q3 views. But the maker of computer servers, networking equipment and data storage systems forecast Q4 EPS well below estimates. HPE shares tumbled.
Ciena said fiscal Q3 earnings dropped 41% while revenue fell 12% to $942.3 million, but both topped views. Shares of the optical communications gear maker reversed lower.
AeroVironment reported an 11% EPS decline, easily beating fiscal Q1 views. Revenue jumped 24% to $189.5 million, also topping. But despite that Q1 beat, the drone maker's reaffirmed its full-year guidance, which is short of consensus.
Smartsheet reported Q2 adjusted EPS soared 175%, easily beating, with the 17% revenue rise to $276.4 million, also topped. Shares jumped on results and reports that private equity firms are in talks to buy the workplace management software maker.
Guidewire earnings per share fell 16% while revenue rose 8% to $291.5 million, both beating fiscal Q4 views. The insurance software specialist forecast fiscal 2025 revenue up 16%, slightly above consensus. Guidewire gapped out of a base.
DocuSign reported Q2 EPS grew 35% while revenue rose 7% to $736 million, the maker of electronic signature software said. Shares jumped.
