Check back for updates throughout the trading day
U.S. stocks ended sharply lower Thursday as investors tried and failed to claw back some of the worst losses for tech stocks in more than two years amid growing political risks to the chip sector and a surge in market volatility.
Updated at 4:10 PM EDT
Deeper declines
The S&P 500 ended 44 points lower, or 0.78%, to extend its week-to-date decline to around 1.3%. The Nasdaq closed 125 points lower, shedding another 126 points while the Dow gave back more than 530 points from last night's record high.
S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (Jul. 18, 2024)$SPY -0.75% 🟥$QQQ -0.45%🟥$DJI -1.29%🟥$IWM -1.90%🟥 https://t.co/13cxmtITQZ pic.twitter.com/7bsVXtXNz0
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) July 18, 2024
Updated at 3:42 PM EDT
Vol spike
The market's benchmark volatility gauge, the CBOE Group's VIX index, surged more than 11% in afternoon trading to the highest levels since early May amid the broader Wall Street selloff.
The VIX was last marked 11.8% higher at $16.12, a level that suggests traders are expecting daily swings of 1%, or around 55 points, for the S&P 500 each day for the next 30 days.
So it is not about rotation anymore?
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) July 18, 2024
Russell 2000 index of small-caps has given up almost 1/3 of the July gains in just 2 days.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has declined by nearly 3% at the same time.
The Volatility Index, $VIX, SPIKED by over 30% in the last 5 days. pic.twitter.com/RZOl3JI3J0
Updated at 1:25 PM EDT
Netflix on deck
Netflix shares are drifting lower into the final hours of trading, with investors looking to the streaming media group's second quarter earnings after the close of trading.
Analysts expect the group to post a bottom line of $4.74 per share on revenues of $9.53 billion.
Related: Netflix earnings: Analysts make key shift as stock tests record peak
Updated at 12:11 PM EDT
Earnings estimates and price targets - by Liam Elias
American Express (AXP) reports earnings July 19.
Analysts have an average price target of $241 for the credit-card and financial-services giant, down roughly 5% from the $253 it’s trading at currently. The Wall Street analyst consensus for earnings is for $3.26 a share on revenue of $16.59 billion, according to Yahoo Finance.
Schlumberger (SLB) is the world’s largest offshore drilling company and contractor by revenue. It’s beaten or met earnings expectations for the past four quarters, and currently 26 of 37 analysts rate it buy or strong buy, says Yahoo Finance. It is expected to deliver earnings of 83 cents a share on revenue of $9.08 billion.
Travelers (TRV) is a commercial and personal property insurer. In the past seven days, the analyst consensus forecast for earnings has dropped to $1.98 from $2.47. Travelers has missed expected earnings in three of the past four quarters. Currently, it is expected to report revenue of $11.34 billion.
Halliburton (HAL) is another major oil-services provider. It has beaten expected earnings for each of the past four quarters and currently has an average price target of $47, a nearly 27% increase from its current price. Halliburton is expected to report earnings of 80 cents a share on revenue of $5.95 billion.
Updated at 11:39 AM EDT
Backsliding
Stocks are back in the red, with the Nasdaq falling another 1% from last night's close and the S&P 500 down by a similar percentage in late-morning trading. The Dow also gave up earlier gains to trade 115 points lower on the session.
The Russell 2000, meanwhile, is down around 0.2% on the day in a move that, along with yesterday's decline, trims the small cap benchmark's one-month gain to around 10.3%
Signs are pointing to a near-term exhaustion in the small-cap trade, especially down the cap spectrum, says @LizAnnSonders.
— Schwab Network (@SchwabNetwork) July 18, 2024
🗣️ “I think you want to fade that part of the rally and lean into the higher-quality segments within an index like that.” $RUT
Updated at 10:12 AM EDT
Job market balance
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Yahoo Finance Thursday that the labor market has been cooling into a 'better balance" of late that is helping the central bank's broader inflation fight.
Goolsbee, who is not a voting member of the Fed's Open Markets Committee this year, added that "multiple months of better inflation data" are consistent with a path that takes pressures back to the central bank's 2% target.
Fed’s Goolsbee: Have Had ‘Multiple Months Of Better Data’ - @YahooFinance
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) July 18, 2024
- Fight Against #Inflation Is Not Done, ‘But I Feel A Lot Better’
- Cooling Job Market Is Definitely An Area Of Concern
Updated at 9:36 AM EDT
Tech bounce
The Nasdaq was marked 115 points, or 0.62% higher in the opening minutes of trading, paced in part by a 3.2% rebound for Nvidia that is helping the chip sector recover from its worst day in four years.
The S&P 500 was last seen 13 points, or 0.23% higher while the Dow fell 50 points from last night's record close.
S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (Jul. 18, 2024)$SPY +0.24%🟩$QQQ +0.66%🟩$DJI -0.25%🟥$IWM -0.33%🟥 pic.twitter.com/0r0vhoDPPR
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) July 18, 2024
Updated at 8:36 AM EDT
Mixed data
Around 243,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits last week, Labor Department data indicated Thursday, a 20,000 increase from the prior period and the highest tally since August of last year.
The Philadelphia Fed's July activity index, meanwhile, improved to 13.9 points, well ahead of Wall Street forecasts, as new orders advanced and price pressures eased.
Treasury yields eased modestly following the data releases, with 2-year notes pegged at 4.438% and 10-year notes trading at 4.165%.
US Jobless Claims
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) July 18, 2024
Initial (w/e 13 Jul): 243k vs. 229k exp. (prior 222k)
Contd (w/e 6 Jul): 1.867mln vs. 1.856mln exp. (prior 1.852mln)
Note - initial claims print pertains to the July NFP survey week
Updated at 8:23 AM EDT
ECB hold
The European Central Bank left its key lending rate unchanged at 3.75% following a two-day policy meeting in Frankfurt, as it looks for further signs of cooling inflation pressures to continue its monetary easing for the world's biggest economic bloc.
"The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner," the ECB said in its prepared statement. "It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim".
We kept our key interest rates unchanged.
— European Central Bank (@ecb) July 18, 2024
Our rates are still high, helping push down inflation.
This is still needed because inflation is likely to stay above our 2% target well into next year.
Read today’s monetary policy decisions https://t.co/st6SRZKuYW pic.twitter.com/zZqpBbzo5v
Stock Market Today
The Nasdaq suffered its biggest single-day decline since 2022 yesterday, led by a multibillion pummeling of the world's biggest chip stocks. That market move followed a Bloomberg interview with the former president that suggested U.S. policy toward Taiwan might change should he win a second term.
His remarks, as well as reports that President Joe Biden is considering stiffer restrictions on U.S. tech exports to China, also lopped nearly 1.4% from the S&P 500 while extending the recent rotation into industrial and domestic-focused stocks, helping the Dow close north of 41,000 for the first time on record.
A stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) , the Taiwan-based chip contractor at the epicenter of the global supply chain, looks to have steadied markets heading into the Thursday session, with the Nasdaq called around 110 points higher at the the opening bell.
Nvidia (NVDA) shares were marked 2.1% higher at $120.45 each, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 1.56% at $161.91 each.
However, a speech last night to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee from the vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, suggested a tougher approach to Wall Street should the GOP emerge victorious in November, suggesting markets will need to continually reevaluate the political landscape over the coming months.
Heading into the start of the trading day on Wall Street, futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 suggest a 13 point opening bell gain, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average called 50 points lower after last night's record close.
Tough day for YTD winners, with Tech seeing worst performance today (and now barely positive MTD); Comm Serv now down MTD … small caps had better performance relative to large caps and are leading dramatically MTD, led by Russell 2000 Value pic.twitter.com/whGuDwFlBx
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 17, 2024
Stocks in focus include Netflix (NFLX) , which posts second quarter earnings after the close of trading. Analysts are looking for revenue of $9.53 billion and the addition of around 4.82 million new subscribers.
American Airlines (AAL) fell 1.1% after the carrier issued a muted current-quarter forecast, tied to falling airline fares, that offset a stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings report posted after the close of trading last night.
In the bond market, benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields were little changed at 4.179% while 2-year notes eased to 4.459% ahead of weekly jobless-claims data and the Philadelphia Fed's July activity index at 8:30 am Eastern Time.
Markets will also be eyeing the European Central Bank's interest rate decision in Frankfurt, which is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.75% but likely signal two cuts between now and the end of the year.
More Wall Street Analysts:
- Analyst revisits Nvidia stock price target after Blackwell checks
- Analysts prescribe new Walgreens stock price targets after earnings
- Analyst revises Facebook parent stock price target in AI arms race
In Europe, the regionwide Stoxx 600 index was marked 0.41% higher in Frankfurt, with Britain's FTSE 100 rebounding 0.68% in early London dealing.
Overnight in Asia, the yen surged to a six-week high of 156.46 against the U.S. dollar, extending speculation that the Ministry of Finance is intervening in the currency markets. The Nikkei 225 fell 2.36% into the close of trading in Tokyo.
The MSCI ex-Japan benchmark, meanwhile, was marked 0.42% lower heading into the close of regional trading in Asia.
Related: Veteran fund manager sees world of pain coming for stocks
