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The Street
The Street
Business
Martin Baccardax

Stock Market Today: Stocks higher even as Fed pushes back on rate-cut bets; oil surges

Stocks end higher 

Stocks finished higher Monday as Wall Street looked beyond Federal Reserve officials' warnings about their rate-cut exuberance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 0.08%, essentially flat, while the S&P 500 finished up 0.45% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.61%.

The S&P 500 is 1.2% away from its all-time closing high at 4,796.56 that was reached in January 2022.

U.S. Steel X shares soared 26% after the company, which knocked-backed buyout proposals from three different suitors, agreed to a $15 billion takeover by Japan's Nippon Steel.

Oil prices surged after BP became the first global oil major to suspend shipments through the Suez canal following a series of drone and missile strike attacks on vessels through the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.

Brent crude futures contracts for February delivery, the global pricing benchmark, jumped $1.60 to $78.15 per barrel while WTI futures for January delivery rose $1.24 to $77.32 a barrel.

U.S. Steel facility in Pittsburgh, PA.

Shutterstock

Updated at 1:24 PM EST

Binge buying?

Netflix (NFLX) -) shares are one of the top S&P 500 movers in the early afternoon session following a price target upgrade from Morgan Stanley, which cited the streaming platform's ability to leverage its original content into accelerated subscriber growth. 

Netflix shares, which Morgan Stanley now pegs with a 12-month target of $50 each, up from its earlier estimate of $475, was marked 2.7% higher on the Nasdaq and changing hands at $484.73 each. 

Updated at 11:56 AM EST

Holding gains

Wall Street is holding onto slim early gains, despite a jump in Treasury yields and a sharp move higher in oil prices, heading into the mid-day session.

The S&P 500 was last seen 22 points, or 0.45% higher while the Dow gained 60 points. The Nasdaq gained 58 points, or 0.4%. 

Updated at 10:44 AM EST

Suez suspension

Oil prices surged higher Monday after BP became the first global oil major to suspend shipments through the Suez canal following a series of drone and missile strike attacks on vessels through the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.

Brent crude futures contracts for February delivery, the global pricing benchmark, jumped $2.11 to $78.67 per barrel while WTI futures for January delivery rose $2.19 to $73.62 a barrel. 

Related: Oil prices jump as BP pauses Suez traffic amid attacks by Iran-backed rebels

Updated at 9:58 AM EST

Pushing back on the pushback

Treasury yields are moving higher Monday, but stocks are ploughing through the chorus of Fed officials who say markets are getting ahead rate cut projections based on last week's 'dot plots'.

The S&P 500 was marked 14 points higher, or 0.14%, in the opening half hour of trading while the Dow gained 37 points and the Nasdaq 26 points.

Benchmark 10-year note yields, however, were moving higher into the early session, rising 8 basis points from Friday levels to 3.961%. 

This week we’ll see whether the stock market’s seasonal tendency to rally in the second half of December bumps up against potential exhaustion amid one of the strongest short-term rallies of the past several years," said Chris Larkin, managing director for trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.

Updated at 8:45 AM EST

Goolsbee: Fed doesn't pre-commit 

Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee, who will not have a vote in rate decisions made by the Fed's Open Markets Committee, told CNBC he's seeing "significant' improvement in terms of slowing inflation, but added that markets are pricing in more rate cuts than than Fed officials are projecting.

His comments reflect a growing effort by some Fed Presidents to challenge the interpretation of last week's press conference and remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell.

Updated at 8:23 AM EST - Rob Lenihan 

Steely-eyed deal

U.S. Steel X shares soared higher Monday after the group, which knocked-backed buyout proposals from three different suitors, agreed to a $15 billion takeover by Japan's Nippon Steel.

Related: US Steel soars on $15 billion takeover deal with Japan's Nippon Steel

Stock Market Today

Last week's dovish assessment of the Fed's rate path, taken from its Summary of Economic Projections, calls for around three reductions in the benchmark federal funds rate next year. 

That view meets, at least in part, bullish rate bets on Wall Street that have pushed Treasury yields lower and stocks higher for much of the past two months. 

Fed officials have tried to push back on that assumption, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester telling London's Financial Times that markets are "a little bit ahead' of the central bank's projections.

She added that the central bank is focused more on "how long do we need monetary policy to remain restrictive in order to be assured that inflation is on that sustainable and timely path back to 2%" than on the timing of rate cuts.

Mester's comments followed a similar warning from New York Fed President John Williams on Friday, who told CNBC that it was "just premature to be even thinking about" about rate cuts.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, is forecasting three consecutive rate cuts, starting in March, while the CME Group's FedWatch sees rates falling to between 3.75% and 4% by the end of next year.

"Powerful tailwinds of moderating inflation and a Fed pivot will continue to overwhelm moderating economic conditions and are set to push stocks higher in 2024," said Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at New York-based Treasury Partners. 

"Our message to investors is to maintain equity positions, but recognize that stocks are rocketing higher based on improving liquidity and moderating inflation versus rising earnings expectations, and market rallies off of earnings tend to be more sustainable," he added.

In the bond market, benchmark 10-year note yields, which had their biggest five-day decline since 2010 last week, were marked 4 basis points lower at 3.924% while 2-year notes were rose 2 basis points from mid-May lows to trade at 4.430%.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 0.12% lower at 102.417, extending its December decline to around 0.92%.

On Wall Street, stocks look set for a modestly firmer open heading into the final full week of the trading year, with futures contracts tied to the S&P 500, which is up 22.9% for the year, priced for a 7 point opening bell gain.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, is called 55 points higher while the tech-focused Nasdaq is set for a 15 point opening bell gain.

In overseas markets, Europe's Stoxx 600, fresh off a 10-week winning streak, the longest since April, was marked 0.12% lower. The move followed a softer-than-expected reading of German business sentiment for the final month of the year and hawkish statements from ECB policymakers.

Overnight in Asia, stocks were muted, with the MSCI ex-Japan benchmark falling 0.42% into the final hours of trading and the Nikkei 225 ending 0.64% lower in Tokyo ahead of tomorrow's Bank of Japan rate decision.

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