Stocks finished mixed on Monday, as investors looked to a key inflation reading tomorrow following a dovish February jobs report last week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.12% to 38,769.66, while the S&P 500 finished down 0.11% to 5,117.94 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped down 0.41% to 16,019.27.
The February Consumer Price Index is scheduled to be release on March 12.
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said the CPI index likely ran hot in February on higher gasoline prices," but core inflation likely slowed further as car prices fell and rent increases moderated."
"Producer prices likely rose less than retail prices in the month, but were nevertheless higher as more expensive diesel caused transportation and warehousing costs to jump after three monthly declines," Adams said.
Adams said that retail sales likely rebounded sharply as Americans spent more at gas stations, bought more new vehicles, and increased discretionary spending on durable goods after bad weather held back spending in January.
Industrial production was likely flat, with milder weather helping mining but hurting utilities, he added.
Updated at 1:25 PM EDT
Solid auction
The Treasury sold $56 billion in new 3-year notes Monday, drawing improved demand from foreign investors and a lower overall borrowing cost.
Investors placed bids worth $145.6 billion for the auction, generating a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.6, modestly higher than during a similar sale last month. Foreign investors took down around 70% of the sale, a firmly higher tally than in February.
Traders will now look to tomorrow's benchmark $39 billion sale of new 10-year notes, which comes just hours after the Commerce Department's February inflation report.
🇺🇸 United States 3-Year Note Auction $USD
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) March 11, 2024
Actual: 4.256%
Previous: 4.169%
Updated at 12:33 PM EDT
Biden Budget
President Joe Biden unveiled his formal budget proposals for next fiscal year, following on from last week's State of the Union address, promising deficit reductions of around $3 trillion over the coming decade funded in part by targeted tax increases.
The budget plan, which has little if no chance of receiving support in Congress, would also lead to overall U.S. debt rising to as high as $45 trillion over the next ten years.
PIMCO: “Today’s 2025 budget will be more campaign document than actual legislative roadmap, and unless Democrats are able to control both chambers of Congress with large majorities (nearly an impossibility), much of what Biden proposes .. will fail to materialize.” [Cantrill] pic.twitter.com/E90jGvJWzL
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 11, 2024
Updated at 11:06 AM EDT
Caution from consumers
The New York Fed's monthly survey of consumers, which includes questions ranging from job stability to price pressures, suggests a elevated level of caution heading into the spring.
The survey's benchmark inflation outlook shows no change in year-ahead CPI expectations, which held at 3%, and noted that a higher proportion of respondents are worried about keeping their jobs than at the start of the year.
*NEW YORK FED RELEASES SURVEY OF CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
— Roberto Motta (@_robertomotta) March 11, 2024
*US FEB. 1-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNCHANGED AT 3%: NY FED
*US 5-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE TO 2.9% IN FEB. FROM 2.5%
*US 3-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE TO 2.7% IN FEB. FROM 2.4%
Updated at 10:39 AM EDT
Boeing slump
Boeing (BA) shares fell to the lowest levels in nearly four months as safety issues linked to its workhorse 737 Max jet following a door malfunction in early January continue to weigh on the planemaker.
Bloomberg reported that Delta Air Lines DAL expects delays in a big 737 Max 10 order, which was first unveiled in July of 2022, while Alaska Airlines ALK said over the weekend it will cooperate with a U.S. Department of Justice probe into the January 5 door incident.
A 787 Dreamliner, meanwhile, flown by Chile's LATAM Airlines suffered a "technical event" during a flight from Auckland, New Zealand to Sydney, Australia that reportedly injured around 50 passengers.
Boeing shares were last marked 3.7% lower at $191.20 each, having earlier slipped to as low as $189.80 earlier in the session.
BREAKING 🚨: Boeing $BA getting hammered this morning with shares falling to their lowest level since early November after a Boeing Dreamliner 787 experienced a "technical event" in which at least 50 people were injured pic.twitter.com/LVVeKdvFai
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 11, 2024
Updated at 9:38 EDT
Softer open
Stocks are drifting lower into the opening minutes of trading, with the S&P 500 down 13 points, or 0.26%, and the Nasdaq falling 72 points, or 0.45%.
Nvidia shares are a notable downside mover, falling 2.8% to $850.44 each, following on from Friday's big swings, which included an 11% peak-to-trough move for the AI chipmaker that has triggered some concerns over broader market volatility.
Monday Monday. Can't trust that day. $NDX volatility to continue? $NVDA et al weakness override by old generals $AAPL et al catching a bid?#CPI Tuesday... be extra nimble for today's Monday close!
— jedimarkus77 (@jedimarkus77) March 11, 2024
I DO NOT sell the hole or buy the rip. You do you. 🤡 pic.twitter.com/F6aIbwfWl8
Related: Is Nvidia's slide a sign of a market top?
Updated at 8:17 EDT
More Bitcoin records
Bitcoin prices hit another record high Monday, and were last marked 4% higher at $71,712.80 each after topping $72,000 for the first time ever earlier in the session.
Some of today's price gains could be linked to a move by MicroStrategy to buy around 12,000 bitcoin at a cost of $821.7 million
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 12,000 BTC for ~$821.7M using proceeds from convertible notes & excess cash for ~$68,477 per #bitcoin. As of 3/10/24, $MSTR hodls 205,000 $BTC acquired for ~$6.91B at average price of $33,706 per bitcoin. https://t.co/YayyKtpz8d
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) March 11, 2024
Stock Market Today
Stocks ended lower on Friday, led by a sharp decline in tech stocks amid a big intraday move from AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) , despite a February jobs report that suggested solid hiring gains against fading wage growth.
The overall reading, seen as an indicator of the potential for a soft landing in the economy later this year, stoked bets on an early-spring interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve and lower Treasury bond yields but failed to support stocks into the close of the session.
The market's macro focus is likely to shift this week to Tuesday's inflation report for February, which is expected to show a further slowdown in the closely tracked core reading while indicating little change at the headline level from the 3.1% pace recorded over January.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields eased modestly into the start of the New York session, with eyes on both Tuesday's inflation data and a $39 billion auction of new paper set for 1 pm Eastern Time that same day.
The U.S. dollar index, meanwhile, was marked 0.03% lower against a basket of its global peers at 102.679, the lowest since mid-January.
Wall Street will navigate only a handful of earnings this week as the S&P 500 earnings season draws to a close. Updates are expected from database-management giant Oracle (ORCL) after the closing bell and retailer Kohl's (KSS) , homebuilder Lennar (LEN) and graphics-software stalwart Adobe (ADBE) later in the week.
With 494 of the benchmark's 500 companies report so far, collective fourth-quarter earnings are estimated to rise 10% from a year earlier to $476.1 billion, according to LSEG data.
That growth rate is likely to slow sharply, however, to around 5.3% over the current quarter, drawing in share-weighted earnings of around $459.8 billion.
With this week's data on tap and a muted session of data ahead, stocks are set for a mixed open. Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500, which is up 7.47% for the year, are indicating an 18 point opening bell gain.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, are priced for a 130 point decline while those linked to the tech-focused Nasdaq are indicating an 82 point dip.
In Europe, stocks moved lower in early Frankfurt trading, with the Stoxx 600 benchmark falling 0.44%, while Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 0.43% in London.
Overnight in Asia, data showing a better-than-expected revision for fourth-quarter GDP in Japan, which effectively indicated the country avoided technical recession, stoked bets on a Bank of Japan rate move. The report sent the Nikkei 225 2.19% lower to 38,820.49 points.
Asia's regionwide MSCI ex-Japan index, meanwhile, was marked 0.13% lower into the close of trading.
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