Uncertainty about earnings and geopolitics weighed on the major equity indexes Monday, as the math of downward earnings revisions and a muddle of news from abroad made for red numbers across the board at the close.
There's little incoming economic data and no central banker speak this week, but markets will keep moving.
According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts have revised downward their 2025 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for S&P 500 companies by 0.5% over the past six months.
Sales estimates are down 0.3%, and margins are under pressure because of fixed costs. The S&P 500 is currently trading at approximately 22.5 times forward EPS estimates, a three-year high.
Meanwhile, China's anti-monopoly authority is investigating the biggest publicly traded company in the world, but its politburo also indicated it will support a major economic stimulus effort, including the first adjustment to monetary policy in 14 years and "more proactive" fiscal policy.
In the Middle East, rebels seized Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, apparently ending a 13-year civil war and his family's six-decade dictatorship.
And yet the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked up four basis points from 4.15% on Friday to 4.19% on Monday, a move that really doesn't reflect a flight to safety and might be more about shifting inflation expectations.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6% to 19,736. The S&P 500 was off 0.6% to 6,052. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 0.5% to 44,401.
Mondelez is still sweet on Hershey
The Hershey Company (HSY) stock climbed as much as 19.1% and closed up 10.9% at $193.68 on a Bloomberg report that Mondelez International (MDLZ) is once again exploring a potential acquisition of the Pennsylvania-based chocolate maker.
Hershey rejected a $23 billion takeover offer from Mondelez in 2016. According to Bloomberg, "Deliberations are in the early stages and there's no certainty that discussions will lead to a deal."
With Monday's surge HSY is now up 3.9% year to date, as management has contended with record-high cocoa prices and elevated sugar prices. Of the 26 Wall Street analysts who cover the stock, 18 rate HSY a Hold. The average 12-month price target for HSY, as calculated by S&P Global Market Intelligence, is $183.65.
China investigates Nvidia
Nvidia (NVDA) stock declined 2.6% after the Chinese government announced an investigation of the AI chipmaker for "suspected violation of the country's anti-monopoly law and a decision by the market regulator on Nvidia's acquisition of Mellanox Technologies," according to Xinhua News Agency.
The State Administration for Market Regulation is reviewing Nvidia's recent behavior and its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies. China's approval of the Mellanox deal included a condition that Nvidia not discriminate against Chinese companies.
Nvidia said in response that it's "happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business." According to its fiscal 2025 third-quarter earnings report, Nvidia generates approximately 15% of its revenue in China.
China's move to probe Nvidia is widely perceived as a response to the Biden administration and its imposition of restrictions on sales of high-tech memory chips and access to high-bandwidth memory technology.
It's CPI Week
We've entered the official blackout period ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 17-18, and there isn't much on the economic calendar this week.
Blackout periods begin the second Saturday preceding an FOMC meeting and end the Thursday following a meeting. So we won't be hearing from Fed Chair Jerome Powell or any of his colleagues until they make their next announcement on interest rates next Wednesday.
What incoming data we will see between now and Thursday does bear on that decision, though, particularly Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will report November CPI on Wednesday at 8:30 am Eastern time.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Inflation Nowcasting model shows headline CPI at 2.70% and core CPI at 3.30% year over year. The model shows month-over-month headline CPI of 0.26% and core CPI of 0.27%.
Headline annual CPI at 2.70% would mark an acceleration from 2.60% in October and potentially complicate the Fed's decision-making process.
"Heading into the communications blackout period before the December FOMC meeting," writes Deutsche Bank Economist Amy Yang in a December 9 Fed Watcher update, "officials generally left the door open for a 25-basis-point rate cut."
Yang notes that "other than Governor Waller, officials were not explicit about supporting such a move, and looked to maintain optionality around that decision pending the release of key data prior to the meeting."
The economist expects the FOMC to cut by 25 basis points next week "before entering an extended pause through next year," highlighting this week's inflation data as "the ultimate arbiter of whether or not the Fed stays or goes at its final meeting of the year."
