More than one in three Queensland voters say they are unsure about the new premier, Steven Miles, according to union-commissioned polling that shows support for the Labor government improved marginally after last week’s leadership change.
The uComms SMS poll, commissioned by the Together Union, of 1,143 people on 13 December – after it became clear Miles would succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk as premier – puts the Liberal National party ahead of the Labor government 52-48 on a two-party-preferred basis.
A similar poll, conducted by the same union three weeks earlier, had the LNP leading 53-47.
Labor’s primary vote (34%) was also marginally improved compared to recent surveys, but the change is within the margin of error and still well below the 39.6% primary recorded at the 2020 state election.
The LNP primary (38.2%) would unlikely be enough for the opposition to form a majority government.
Labor figures and political analysts say the result leaves the government with just about enough of a foothold to be competitive at the state election, scheduled for October. A large number of voters (12.7%) say they are undecided. The number is higher (17.8%) in regional Queensland. Many are also yet to make up their mind about Miles.
Palaszczuk had been battling negative and worsening approval ratings. Miles begins his tenure with a 12.5% net-positive rating: 38.4% of people polled were positive and 25.9% negative.
More than one in three voters (35.6%) said their view of the new premier was “neutral”.
Paul Williams, a political analyst from Griffith University, says given the large number of voters unsure about Miles, the flood situation in north Queensland gives him an opportunity to quickly define himself by leading the recovery effort.
“The natural disaster carries a premium in political leadership in Queensland,” Williams said.
“For regional Queensland, a premier who can step up in times of disaster … is more important than anywhere else in Australia.
“People need to see Miles sweaty, dirty, with a broom. At the coalface. It will take him some time to warm up, but [the poll shows] they’re heading in the right direction.”
Most recent polls appear to show Queensland headed for a minority government, though the LNP would likely be the largest party. The uComms put the Greens vote at 11.9%, One Nation at 7.8%, Katter’s Australian party at 3.3% and others at 4.8%.
