For better or worse the defining game of England’s World Cup campaign is nigh. Beat Fiji on Sunday and they can relocate up to Paris for the rest of the tournament with heads held high. Lose and it will be the end of a hugely pot-holed road, with frustrated supporters entitled to ask how much progress has ultimately been made over the past two tumultuous years.
The truth of the matter is no-one can be wholly sure which of the two outcomes will unfold. Once upon a time it would have been seen as inconceivable for England to lose to Fiji twice in the space of seven weeks, having only just sneaked past Samoa last weekend. These days almost anything feels possible and the Fijians are arguably the more predictable of the two opposing teams.
It remains difficult to tell, for instance, whether England are significantly better than they were during Eddie Jones’ final days last autumn. While they put Argentina away on their previous visit to Marseille last month, they did so against a muddle-headed Pumas side who could barely catch a cold. That game’s controlling influence, George Ford, also now finds himself on the bench, from where kicking vital drop-goals is somewhat harder.
Round and round swirl the ifs and buts. Marcus Smith is an exciting footballer but has never started at full-back in a game of this magnitude. That basically makes his selection either a masterstroke or a foolhardy gamble, with little in between. If Freddie Steward, ejected from the 23 completely, is not the answer this weekend should the Smith experiment not have started sooner? Or another specialist 15 picked?
It is the same with Owen Farrell at 10 – having been at 12 last week – and Billy Vunipola on the bench. Even allowing for the clear need to counter Levani Botia at the breakdown, England will also need some ball-carrying heft. If Vunipola is not the man for that bespoke assignment then why bring him to France in the first place?
There is much at stake, in other words, for both the players, the management and the Rugby Football Union. It is all very well saying, as the chief executive, Bill Sweeney, sought to do the other day, that English rugby is on “the cusp of something spectacular” but grand words have to be backed up by significant actions. If England cannot rise to this latest big occasion, as Steve Borthwick insists they will, the wisdom of changing their head coach nine months out from a World Cup will inevitably be revisited.
A moment’s silence will be held at this weekend’s Rugby World Cup quarter-finals in Paris and Marseille as a mark of solidarity with those affected by the violence in Israel and Gaza.
World Rugby, the global governing body, and the France 2023 organising committee on Friday night issued a statement confirming the gesture at Wales v Argentina and Ireland v New Zealand on Saturday as well as England's fixture against Fiji and France's match against South Africa on Sunday.
Unlike at Wembley on Friday for England’s football match against Australia, it is understood that tournament organisers are not issuing a ban on Israel and Palestine flags in the stadiums. In line with police guidance issued before the tournament, any “document, leaflet, badge, insignia, banner of any size, of a political, ideological or advertising nature” is prohibited. Gerard Meagher
It will not just be Borthwick’s or the players’ fault, then, if their luck runs out on Sunday. An era is drawing to a close, either way, with a number of squad members enjoying their last World Cup dance. Remember 2019 when England reached the final with the youngest squad in the professional era? They are now about to say adieu to a bunch of them, not least up front where gnarled experience counts for so much.
Between them, for example, Courtney Lawes, Dan Cole, Billy Vunipola, Joe Marler, Jamie George, Ben Youngs, Danny Care, Manu Tuilagi and Jonny May have played more than 800 Tests and, in some cases shared the same dressing rooms since their teens. With the possible exception of the 32-year-old George, none will be playing in Australia in four years’ time. Which could possibly be a factor this weekend as England look to summon some of the old bulldog stubbornness that has sustained them at similar moments in the past.
Marler, for one, says England’s older stagers are determined not to bow out meekly beside the Mediterranean and end their international careers on a collective downer. “There’s a number of us who won’t play for England again after this tournament,” said the prop. “That’s definitely a factor for us … we’ve got close bonds which motivate us and drive us on to make these last memories special.”
One last call to arms, one last hurrah? There is a precedent for those who were in this same city on the same weekend 16 years ago. No one had envisaged England beating Australia in another quarter-final collision, only for the English scrum to crush the Wallabies and secure one of their more famous World Cup victories. On they subsequently rattled to the final, defeating hosts France in Paris en route.
There have been plenty of other occasions down the years when backs-to-the-wall situations have stirred England’s warhorses. This could just be another of them if Marler’s eve-of-match testimony was anything to go by. “When it gets to knockout time and it’s do or die there’s a bit more of a spike in training and more of a fear factor. I know some boys don’t like that fear factor and tend to focus on the positives but I like the fear that if we don’t get it right we’re gone.”
There are enough England fans in the south of France, too, to make a lot of noise if it ends up being tight. Viewed through rosé-tinted spectacles, the general consensus is that England cannot possibly be as poor again as they mostly were against Samoa. Having already qualified top of their pool, maybe there was a subliminal sense of waiting for the quarters to roll around, rather than properly attacking it.
Then again, England haven’t attacked much with consistent rhythm of late, save for the Chile game when Henry Arundell scored five tries. The richly promising Arundell is nowhere to be seen on this teamsheet, further reflecting the curate’s egg nature of England’s campaign to date. It has either been feast or famine, with little indication as to what might be coming next.
Longer term that is a conundrum for the RFU as well. If England fans are to be persuaded to keep shelling out for expensive Twickenham tickets and debenture packages, there needs to be at least some prospect of consistent success. Losing to an infinitely more poorly-resourced Fiji is absolutely not a part of that vision. If, on the other hand, England can reach a huge World Cup semi-final against France or South Africa, with the entire country huddled around their screens next weekend, it will almost feel like old times. No pressure, then, on Borthwick, Farrell and the redeployed Smith as they approach a game that, one way or another, will have a lasting effect on English rugby.
