It is all about Wales this week, in theory, but even England’s attack coach, Richard Wigglesworth, admits there is an elephant in the dressing room. On Saturday night in Cardiff, Steve Borthwick and his England assistants will sit down and play their final game of selection poker before Monday’s official Rugby World Cup squad announcement. There will inevitably be winners and losers, one or two of them familiar names.
If the process is marginally less fraught, with 33 players now permitted instead of the previous 31, it does not lessen the thrill for those chosen or the despair for those omitted. Borthwick knows both emotions, having missed the cut in 2003 after training with the wider squad all summer. It explains his desire to be as upfront with the current crop as he possibly can.
Many of his soon-to-be-named players also need no reminding that rugby is a game of wildly fluctuating ups and downs. How long ago does Manu Tuilagi’s plunge into Auckland harbour in 2011 now feel? Or Danny Care’s debut in New Zealand in the summer of 2008 under Rob Andrew’s brief stewardship? Almost a third of the likely squad will be heading into their final World Cups and know to expect the unexpected.
Experience, then, is not the biggest issue. More pertinent are partnerships and collective clarity. When people go on about the optimal number of caps to win a World Cup, what they are really talking about is cohesion. The knockout phases are no place for wheel reinvention.
It helps to explains the return of Care, Dan Cole and Joe Marler when the passing years would suggest there should be alternative contenders. What that says about the Premiership’s current strength is a moot point but when the final squad axe falls it will not do so on many players who would be automatic picks for, say, the All Blacks. Or indeed top-ranked Ireland, currently the Kitemark of excellence for everyone else.
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The manner in which England plan to play is ultimately the key. By and large, this is not a massive secret. “The bedrock of winning in international rugby is that your set piece is incredibly strong, you have a good kicking game, your defence is very good and you take your attacking opportunities,” confirmed Care this week. “That is what they have been drilling into us.”
In other words, England will not be straying far away from a model familiar to anyone who has watched Saracens or Leicester in recent times. Almost half the squad have played for one of those two clubs at some stage and the ratio among the coaching team is even higher. Borthwick wants his players to show the best of themselves and not to shrink into their shells but that is not necessarily a licence to do everything off the cuff.
Hookers Theo Dan, Jamie George, Jamie Blamire
Loosehead props Ellis Genge, Joe Marler, Bevan Rodd
Tighthead props Dan Cole, Kyle Sinckler, Will Stuart
Second-row Ollie Chessum, Jonny Hill, Maro Itoje, George Martin
Back-row Tom Curry, Courtney Lawes, Jack Willis, Tom Pearson, Tom Willis, Billy Vunipola
Scrum-halves Danny Care, Jack van Poortvliet, Ben Youngs
Fly-halves Owen Farrell, George Ford, Marcus Smith
Centres Ollie Lawrence, Henry Slade, Manu Tuilagi
Back three Henry Arundell, Elliot Daly, Max Malins, Freddie Steward, Anthony Watson
Reserve list Jack Walker, David Ribbans, Ben Earl, Lewis Ludlam, Alex Dombrandt, Joe Marchant, Guy Porter, Joe Cokanasiga, Jonny May, Cadan Murley
That said, he is going to need some ball-carrying X factor somewhere. Which is where the balance of the squad selection becomes fascinating. On the face of it, for example, Ben Earl’s pace feels like an asset and could offer something different. Lewis Ludlam, similarly, is the kind of guy you would trust with your life. But the more you look down Borthwick’s list of contenders the more your eye is drawn to the rangy Tom Pearson, who offers more height and line-breaking dynamism than either of the others. Rough as it is on Earl and Ludlam, a decent 50 minutes in Cardiff might just confirm Pearson’s spot.
Alex Dombrandt also needs a cracking game against Wales to avoid being overtaken by the fast-rising Tom Willis. If the Harlequin does miss out he will rue not quite grasping his opportunity in this year’s Six Nations. A penny, too, for the thoughts of Zach Mercer and Sam Simmonds, both of whom would suit a slightly more buccaneering style.
This might become doubly useful should Billy Vunipola be sidelined at any point and leave Tom Willis, Ellis Genge and Kyle Sinckler as the chief sources of forward yardage in the absence of the injured Luke Cowan-Dickie. Someone such as Pearson, 23, could be just what England need to inject crucial momentum without reducing their set piece options.
So where is the fast footwork going to come from? With Tuilagi and Ollie Lawrence supplying midfield thunder and Freddie Steward offering barn-door security at full back, there needs to be some subtlety and left-field elusiveness elsewhere. Which is why the gifted Henry Arundell has to make the cut and why Marcus Smith simply must travel.
In the eyes of some, Smith is a fancy soap in a working man’s bathroom where such luxuries cannot be indulged. Borthwick, though, has pretty much signalled Smith will be going, which potentially diminishes the chances of taking another winger such as Jonny May, Cadan Murley or Joe Cokanasiga. In the last 20 minutes of a tight game, England will need someone to supply a match-turning intervention. Smith’s recurring ability to find half a yard of space should earn him the final ticket.
A World Cup-winning squad? England certainly have a decent draw and, on their day, will feel they can beat anyone. The first priority, though, will be to negotiate the autumn games without a shedload of injuries and to construct a pack capable of neutering Argentina in Marseille in just over a month’s time. Only then will Borthwick and his team be tempted to lift their gaze even slightly towards the distant summit.
