Well that’s interesting. NFL mock drafts rarely have predictive power given how widely opinions can range across the league, but they do become worth monitoring as we get closer to the 2022 NFL draft. Media analysts and draft experts have had time to meet with scouts and team executives around recent all-star events, and they’ll get even more exposure at the upcoming NFL Scouting Combine. Those conversations share insight to what league decision-makers are thinking about different prospects and how they may pan out in the pros.
And that’s reflected in Todd McShay’s latest mock draft for ESPN, where he does have the New Orleans Saints picking a quarterback in the first round. But he’s drawn up a scenario where the passer New Orleans selects isn’t their preferred prospect, with the Pittsburgh Steelers moving up to get ahead of the Saints and pick Liberty’s Malik Willis before New Orleans can get their pick in. McShay explains:
“If we get to this point and all but one of the quarterbacks are still on the board, the Steelers have to be on the phone with Chargers GM Tom Telesco. The Saints are lurking there at No. 18, and Pittsburgh knows it has to make a move to get its guy before New Orleans is on the clock. Los Angeles, meanwhile, knows that a three-pick slide to No. 20 doesn’t impact its draft much. The Steelers would go QB, and the Saints could follow suit. That means the Chargers would in all likelihood get the same player at No. 20 that they would have gotten at No. 17. Plus, they’d get another pick or two.”
That would be crushing, if this is how it shakes out. If the Saints truly value Willis as the best fit for them in this rookie class, they’ve got to try to trade up and get him — their failure to do so has been an organizational regret since 2017, when the Kansas City Chiefs bounded halfway up the draft board to take Patrick Mahomes just minutes before the Saints were prepared to. Having that happen again (even if Willis isn’t comparable to Mahomes as a prospect) would be extremely painful.
It’s an all-too-real scenario. But it’s also speculative, and we don’t know how the Saints have ranked this year’s rookie passers. Maybe Willis wouldn’t be their first choice after all. So which quarterback does McShay see the Saints settling for? Their next-best option is Ole Miss passer Matt Corral, of whom he wrote:
“Despite a big contract, Taysom Hill isn’t the Saints’ answer at quarterback. Will they re-sign Jameis Winston? Could they find a way to make a big improvement via trade? New coach Dennis Allen will exhaust all options under center, though the team’s perpetual salary-cap concerns could limit them. New Orleans tied Carolina for a league-low 58.1% completion percentage in 2021, and their 187.4 passing yards per game were last in the NFL. Corral has a live arm, will lead receivers into extra yardage and can tuck-and-run when necessary. He’s tough in the pocket, but that has brought on some durability concerns that will need to be evaluated. Corral hurt his ankle in Ole Miss’ bowl game.”
That’s not a terrible outcome. Depending on who you ask, Corral — not Willis, nor Pittsburgh product Kenny Pickett, who McShay has going off the board earlier — could be the best rookie quarterback prospect. And obviously each team is going to feel differently after pouring over their scouting reports and considering how each passer might fit their system.
Maybe the Saints do end up with Corral after all, and maybe he was their preference all along. The only thing that’s certain is we’ve got a long way to go until April’s draft, and the Saints may not have the patience to wait that long and address their biggest roster need.
