Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD), founded in 1993 and based in Fort Wayne, Indiana, is a major U.S. steel producer and metal recycler. Renowned for its diverse steel and aluminum offerings, the firm serves industries ranging from construction and automotive to manufacturing and heavy equipment. With operations spanning recycling, fabrication, and specialty metals, Steel Dynamics’ innovation and sustainability drive its prominence in domestic and international markets.
Valued at a market cap of $21.9 billion, shares of Steel Dynamics have climbed 25.8% over the past 52 weeks and 23% on a YTD basis, trailing behind the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 32.6% returns over the past year and 26.5% gains in 2024.
However, narrowing the focus, STLD has outperformed the VanEck Steel ETF’s (SLX) 3% returns over the past 52 weeks and a 3.3% dip on a YTD basis.
STLD stock, despite lagging broader market gains, gained momentum this year due to strong financial performance. After reporting impressive Q3 earnings results on Oct. 16, with a $4.34 billion revenue and EPS of $2.05, STLD stock rose over 4%.
The real spark came on Nov. 6, when the stock surged 13.8%, driven by optimism around Donald Trump’s reelection, signaling potential steel tariffs and corporate tax cuts. Investors anticipate higher U.S. steel prices and profits amid policy shifts, alongside renewed merger prospects for U.S. Steel, boosting overall industry sentiment despite current market challenges.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts estimate Steel Dynamics’ profit to dip 32.4% year over year to $10.10 per share. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in three of the past four quarters while missing on one other occasion.
The overall consensus is a “Moderate Buy” – an upgrade from a “Hold” rating two months ago. Of the 11 analysts covering STLD stock, four analysts suggest a “Strong Buy” rating, six advise a “Hold,” and the remaining one gives a “Strong Sell.”
The overall configuration is slightly more bullish than three months back when the stock had two “Strong Buys” and two “Strong Sells.”
Last month, Seaport Global Securities raised its price target for STLD stock to $150 from $132, reaffirming a “Buy” rating. This upgrade follows Steel Dynamics’ Q3 earnings, where EPS of $2.05 exceeded both consensus estimates and company guidance.
Despite looming challenges from narrowing metal spreads and seasonal volume dips, Seaport remains bullish, citing Steel Dynamics’ robust FCF and earnings consistency. Optimism also stems from growth potential in its aluminum segment, underscoring Steel Dynamics’ strong fundamentals and promising long-term performance trajectory.
Although the stock currently trades above the mean price target of $140.30, the Street-high target price of $165 implies the stock could rally as much as 13.6%.
