We’re just one month away from the start of free agency, and the New Orleans Saints have some tough decisions to make. Between players whose contracts are running up and those whose deals are designed to be torn up (we’ll get to them in a bit), it’s going to be tough to keep this team together.
At the same time, some changes are obviously needed. And free agency and the start of a new league year give the Saints an opportunity to shake up their roster and try to improve. That doesn’t mean it’s an easy process. New Orleans is in the red by more than $80 million and must make some heavy decisions on how to reach salary cap compliance.
So with that in mind, here are predictions for which Saints players will return for 2024 or seek better opportunities in free agency:
WR Rashid Shaheed (exclusive rights)
Shaheed deserves a longer contract but the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement requires him to play at least three seasons before he’s eligible to sign a multiyear extension. He’ll return on the minimum salary but it’s his only option.
Prediction: STAY
DL P.J. Mustipher (exclusive rights)
Mustipher was a late addition to the team after some injuries hit the defensive line. Like Shaheed, he should return on the minimum salary as required by the CBA.
Prediction: STAY
FB Adam Prentice (restricted)
The Saints should look for an upgrade at fullback especially for a system that relies on the position so heavily. But they could probably bring Prentice back on the minimum which wouldn’t hurt.
Prediction: STAY
CB Shemar Jean-Charles (restricted)
Another late-season pickup, Jean-Charles played some valuable snaps on special teams to close out the year. It would be worth bringing him back on the minimum salary to compete for a roster spot.
Prediction: STAY
WR Lynn Bowden Jr. (restricted)
Bowden is a good player to have in the rotation. He brings some veteran leadership and a willingness to fight and block for his teammates. He should return to compete for a roster spot, though the Saints may want to aim higher in rebuilding their receiving corps.
Prediction: STAY
LB Ryan Connelly (unrestricted)
A preseason knee injury slowed Connelly down and ultimately ended his season. The Saints should look to get younger and healthier at the position.
Prediction: GO
CB Isaac Yiadom (unrestricted)
Yiadom played well enough as a spot-starter that the Saints should make re-signing him a priority — but the quality game tape he put together may intrigue other suitors in free agency, and they can’t commit too many resources to the position. Hopefully he’ll be back. If the Saints plan on trading Marshon Lattimore then Yiadom is a must-sign free agent.
Prediction: STAY
OL Max Garcia (unrestricted)
Garcia was the Saints’ first choice to come into games from off the bench. It would make sense to bring him back on the minimum salary again if he’s a fit in Klint Kubiak’s offensive blocking scheme.
Prediction: STAY
LB Zack Baun (unrestricted)
Baun has been a solid special teams player for the Saints but he truly shined when they finally let him rush the passer. Dennis Allen said after the season that isn’t a role he sees Baun (or other players like him) doing full-time, so Baun owes it to himself to go find a team that will let him line up and play football to the best of his abilities. He isn’t going to meet his ceiling in Allen’s defense.
Prediction: GO
DT Malcolm Roach (unrestricted)
Roach outplayed Shy Tuttle, who got a nice bag in free agency last year, and he should cash in this spring. He received some interest in free agency in the last cycle but his star has risen higher. The Saints may struggle to match any respectable offers he sees after paying Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders.
Prediction: GO
WR Keith Kirkwood (unrestricted)
At some point the Saints need to start signing training camp bodies at wide receiver; if Michael Thomas leaves and Rashid Shaheed returns they’ll have just three of them under contract for 2024. Kirkwood has some chemistry with Derek Carr and should return to compete for a roster spot.
Prediction: STAY
S Johnathan Abram (unrestricted)
Abram was an important player last year, at least for what the Saints asked of him: fill in at safety in a pinch and be a positive influence on his teammates. He passed that test with flying colors. He shouldn’t be expected to start but they should definitely make an effort to bring him back for 2024.
Prediction: STAY
RT Cameron Erving (unrestricted)
Erving came in off the bench and held his own filling in for Ryan Ramczyk. The Saints should bring him back and see if he can handle a larger role, assuming he’s a fit in the new blocking scheme.
Prediction: STAY
TE Jimmy Graham (unrestricted)
Graham effectively already said his goodbyes to New Orleans. The Saints legend could return (his arrival at training camp last summer was unexpected) but odds are he’s off to a new adventure. He’s been preparing to circumnavigate the world in a sailboat and paused those plans to run it back with the Saints last year.
Prediction: GO
CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. (unrestricted0
Johnson’s health is key — he missed a lot of time in the back half of the season with a knee injury. Hopefully he’s recovered well. The coaching staff values him highly as a backup and he’s a good position-flexible player to keep in the secondary, having lined up both at free safety and cornerback in his NFL career.
Prediction: STAY
DB Ugo Amadi (unrestricted)
Amadi played some respectable snaps in spot duty here or there. It would be worth bringing him back on the veteran minimum as someone who has seen it all, knows the system, and can plug a couple of different holes as a reserve in the secondary.
Prediction: STAY
DE Kyle Phillips (unrestricted)
Phillips didn’t make much of an impact at the bottom of the rotation; the Saints probably didn’t expect him to play much at all until Payton Turner’s injury forced their hand. It wouldn’t hurt to bring him back but they should consider younger, more effective options first.
Prediction: GO
RB Eno Benjamin (unrestricted)
Benjamin joined the Saints for training camp but was lost for the year to an Achilles injury. Hopefully he’s recovered but the team should be looking to get younger and healthier at this position.
Prediction: GO
LB Andrew Dowell (unrestricted)
Dowell caught a really bad break in training camp with a torn ACL; hopefully that’s behind him and he can return on a prove-it deal at the minimum salary to prove he’s still an impactful player on special teams. He has a lot of fans on the coaching staff.
Prediction: STAY
LB Ty Summers (unrestricted)
Summers is an important player on special teams for New Orleans, and he has the right combination of age and experience to continue helping out in that phase. The question is whether he’ll be willing to return on the minimum salary or weigh better offers in free agency.
Prediction: STAY
LG Trai Turner (unrestricted)
It would be nice to bring Turner back on another minimum deal and see how well he’s recovered from last summer’s training camp injury; he was competing to start at left guard before going down. But he might be ready to call it a career.
Prediction: GO
LT Andrus Peat (void)
Peat might be the most important free agent for the Saints to re-sign. Trevor Penning can’t be counted on to start at left tackle. He can line up at guard and play at a high level, too. It’s a stunning turn of events after the Saints asked Peat to take a pay cut last summer and benched him during training camp. It’ll be fascinating to see what sort of market materializes for him, but New Orleans should work to retain him.
Prediction: STAY
WR Michael Thomas (void)
Thomas gave the Saints everything he had, playing through injuries when possible and working to mentor his younger teammates. But Derek Carr has been a bad fit with him and it’s time he go join a real contender. The Saints structured his contract so that he’ll be released in March with a post-June 1 designation, giving them some small savings later this summer.
Prediction: GO
QB Jameis Winston (void)
Winston reworked his contract to facilitate a release in March; he’ll receive the post-June 1 designation which makes it easier on the Saints’ salary cap, giving them more savings later this summer to use while signing their draft class. Plenty of teams will value Winston as a backup but there are some starting quarterbacks in this league he could unseat.
Prediction: GO
