England
The disruption that has blighted England’s buildup must be seen in the context of the size of the player pool available to Eddie Jones, but the fact that more than half the backs in the training squad – not to mention a handful of forwards – have never played in the Six Nations demonstrates the uncertainty with which their campaign begins.
On one hand, it gives Jones the chance to assess inexperienced players in the heat of battle but on the other England finished fifth last year and a repeat in 2022 would leave the Rugby Football Union running short of excuses as to why it should continue to back him.
Jones is having to strike the right balance, then, but there is optimism and excitement about his “New England” following uplifting autumn victories, notably over South Africa. Much of that comes from the anticipation that greets Marcus Smith’s every touch and the excellence of Freddie Steward but how those two, and other callow members of the side, perform when the rain is coming in sideways at Murrayfield could define England’s tournament.
A trip to Rome follows and England could be sitting pretty with two wins from two and bolstered by the expected return of Manu Tuilagi and, maybe, Joe Launchbury. Defeat, however, puts England under the pump from the onset.
Player to watch Alex Dombrandt. With no Sam Underhill in the squad, you’d expect Tom Curry to move to flanker, meaning an opening at No 8. Sam Simmonds is in good form but Dombrandt is the coming man.
Key match The trip to France on the final weekend could be a mouth-watering decider but this weekend in Murrayfield feels so important for England’s fortunes.
France
They start as favourites and there is undoubtedly a sense that now is the time for France to turn all of the progress they have made under Fabien Galthié into tangible success after consecutive second-place finishes. Covid problems in the Top14 have hampered preparations somewhat but, ominously for the rest of the competition, the vast majority of the players affected – including Antoine Dupont – have now returned to the squad.
There may be an element of rust but it helps that France start off against Italy and, provided there are not any long-lasting effects, it is easy to see why they are so well fancied. The depth of talent is frankly outrageous and Eddie Jones has made repeated reference to how Galthié is able to select 42 players at the start of every week and keep 28 with him throughout. Jones was no doubt attempting to turn the pressure up a notch but evidently France are now reaping the rewards of the improved alignment between club and country that has them on track for a home World Cup in 2023. The public are engaged again and a long-awaited victory over New Zealand in the autumn showed that Les Bleus can operate at a level above their Six Nations rivals. How they handle the expectation will likely determine their fate.
Player to watch Melvyn Jaminet. The full-back has been a revelation since a surprise call-up for last summer’s tour of Australia. A reliable goal-kicker to boot.
Key match France triumphed on their last trip to Cardiff but they do not win at the Principality Stadium often. Repeat the feat in round four and they should be in the hunt going into the final round.
Ireland
Ticking along very nicely under Andy Farrell, whose decision to step aside from the British & Irish Lions last summer was proved a shrewd one in the autumn when the manner of their victory over New Zealand – just as much as the scoreline – demanded attention. Under Joe Schmidt, Ireland were at their best when overwhelming opponents with their power and physicality and they seem to be doing so again with Farrell at the helm.
The signs were there when thumping England in the last round of the championship last year and Ireland arrive at the starting line without the injury headaches afflicting some of their rivals. They are, as always, a Johnny Sexton injury away from a national crisis but they have not lost at home to Wales in the Six Nations for a decade and the form of the provinces is another cause for optimism.
Trips to Paris and Twickenham suggest Ireland should struggle in even years but they won the grand slam in 2018 and while a clean sweep may not be on the cards this year – given how competitive the championship is – squeeze past France in round two and they will take some stopping.
Player to watch Hugo Keenan. He looked a little out of his depth when first coming into the side in 2020 but has blossomed and is in supreme form for Leinster.
Key match Eight of the last 10 championship matches between France and Ireland have been decided by a score or less and their round two encounter is likely to be similarly tight.
Italy
Thirty-two championship defeats and counting – a run that dates back to 2015 and is not expected to change any time soon. Progress will have to be measured in how close they can keep losing margins and while they will probably produce a 40-minute showing that gives one of their opponents a fright, there is no evidence to suggest anything but another wooden spoon. The trouble for Italy is that, whatever incremental improvements they make, it seems their rivals are getting better – as shown in the autumn when the southern hemisphere big three were all beaten by European opponents on the same weekend for the first time since 2002.
It is, at least, another five matches in which to develop young players such as Paolo Garbisi, Federico Mori and the captain Michele Lamaro but the relegation question will not go away, whatever the Six Nations chief executive Ben Morel says. He has a point when he refers to more obvious progress at age-grade level but you have to wonder if an extreme option like placing selection restrictions – a limited number over the age of 23 for example – on their opponents might be better for all concerned. Still, at least the sun should be out in Rome.
Player to watch Paolo Garbisi. The obvious choice but the fact he is keeping Handré Pollard out of the Montpellier side shows his class. Sergio Parisse also falls into this category if he features.
Key match It’s a fool who bets against five defeats but here’s hoping they can start off with a positive performance in their opening match in Paris.
Scotland
There are many things to like about Scotland at the moment, from the coaching excellence of Gregor Townsend and his assistants to the genius of Finn Russell, while in Stuart Hogg they have a captain who is consistently striking the right tone. His anger at how France’s potential margin of victory was the chief talking point before the postponed finale a year ago might have backfired, instead it galvanised Scotland into a performance and a win that establishes them as genuine contenders this time around. And Hogg is not afraid to embrace that label.
We can but hope that this week’s Scotland v England buildup is not dominated by both sides kicking around the favourites’ tag because now is the time for Scotland to welcome the fact they are well fancied for the tournament. Townsend has a relatively injury-free squad to pick from, Cameron Redpath has made a timely return, and a third win over England in five years would set them up well. Rivals will no doubt be studying their disappointing autumn defeat by South Africa but there are a number of unmissable matches on paper this year, and most of them involve Scotland.
Player to watch Kyle Rowe. Uncapped winger showed his potential with a hat-trick for London Irish against Saracens this season. Was previously part of the sevens set-up, put on furlough and took a job in an Amazon warehouse to make ends meet.
Key match The Calcutta Cup is hugely significant but equally so is how Scotland fare on their travels and it would be incredibly frustrating if they fail in Cardiff, having opened up with a win over England.
Wales
All the signs suggest a difficult championship for Wales but they have won grand slams when starting off in similar circumstances and though they are badly hit by injuries, Wayne Pivac can still select a first-choice XV to slug it out with the very best. They began their autumn campaign poorly, with a sloppy performance against the All Blacks, but improved thereafter and November form has never been a bellwether for Wales’s fortunes in the Six Nations anyway.
Dan Biggar is a shrewd choice as captain, provided he does not get on the wrong side of the officials, and do not underestimate the effect a full house at the Principality Stadium will have. Wales may end up being a gallop or two short in the title race but given they host Scotland and France they are likely to have a big say in who is ultimately crowned champions. They may even have Alun Wyn Jones back before the end of the tournament too – the embodiment of why you write Wales off at your peril.
Player to watch Adam Beard. Deemed surplus to requirements by Pivac not long ago but was a late call-up by the Lions, then made the bench in the third Test and is now Wales vice-captain.
Key match They rarely triumph in Ireland but this year, perhaps more than most, you sense Wales need a winning start given how stretched resources are already.
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