This past week was separation week in the Big Ten. Nearly half of the conference slate is still to come, but it was clear coming into the week, and even more evident coming out of it, that the results would provide clarity on the state of the conference race. I hit the road to see a lot of it, catching Indiana vs. Northwestern on Wednesday, Maryland vs. Illinois on Thursday and Michigan vs. Purdue on Friday. That gave me a fresh look at the state of the league, its title race and much more. Here’s what we learned:
The Contenders
Michigan State (8–0 in conference)
The Spartans haven’t lost since before Thanksgiving and look stronger every time they step on the floor. The recipe for Tom Izzo’s group is strength in numbers, leaning on incredible depth and impressive transition efficiency to overcome a lack of traditional star power. MSU has just one player who averages double-figure scoring, but six different pieces average between 7.5 and 9.9 points per game, and the beauty of this group is watching different players step up on different nights. Saturday against Rutgers, it was 34 points combined from Jase Richardson and Coen Carr, who came off the bench and yet somehow outscored all five MSU starters combined. Consider the Spartans the clear favorite to win the league’s regular-season crown.
Purdue (8–2)
Purdue’s title hopes took a huge hit with a home loss to Ohio State on Jan. 21, but the Boilermakers bounced back in incredibly impressive fashion by blowing out Michigan on Friday night. Point guard Braden Smith’s showing Friday bolstered his case as a potential first-team All-American, with 24 points and 10 assists in one of the more dominant performances by a point guard I can remember watching. But Purdue’s growing title hopes are built more on the continued evolution of its defense and role players, things coach Matt Painter says are intertwined. Purdue has played as a top-10 defense in the country since inserting C.J. Cox and Caleb Furst into the starting lineup on Jan. 2, and bench pieces like Gicarri Harris also continue to emerge. It will be tough to unseat the Spartans, but this group has the best chance.
Scary in March
Illinois (6–4)
Brad Underwood said Sunday he strongly believes this Illinois team can make a Final Four, and it’s hard to question that when Illinois is at its best. Its ceiling, with an elite point guard in Kasparas Jakucionis and positional size and shooting at every spot, is higher than any team in the Big Ten. That said, the Illini’s conference title hopes washed away with back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Maryland. The Maryland loss was particularly disheartening, a 21-point home defeat during which the Illini got thoroughly dominated in the paint. Getting starting center Tomislav Ivisic back healthy after a bout of mono is essential, but if he’s back, this is the type of boom-or-bust team that could blow out brackets one way or another.
Wisconsin (6–3)
The Badgers seem to be hiding in plain sight in this league race, getting far less attention than the other top contenders despite clearly playing like one all season long. Wisconsin’s offense is explosive, with two guards in John Tonje and John Blackwell capable of getting their own shot and drawing tons of fouls. Per KenPom, Wisconsin has the Big Ten’s second best offense, but quietly the Badgers have been a top-five defense in the league in conference games. Already having three losses makes their path challenging, but that could get reevaluated quickly with a road sweep at Maryland and Northwestern this week.
Michigan (7–2)
Three straight underwhelming performances took serious wind out of the Wolverines’ sails, with losses to Minnesota and Purdue and an OT win at home against Northwestern exposing some cracks in the Wolverines’ formula. Even Michigan’s bounceback performance at home against Penn State was somewhat sluggish, needing a late rally just to clip the Nittany Lions. The Wolverines have perhaps the hardest-to-guard duo in the league with 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin playing together, but turnovers have been a persistent problem and Wolf has struggled some of late as teams adjust game plans to slow down the jumbo playmaker.
Maryland (6–4)
Road wins at Illinois and Indiana injected new life into the Terps, a huge confidence boost after losing its first four Big Ten road games by six points or fewer. This group is not without limitations, but elite size and high-level point guard play can take you a long way in March, and this group has both. Belmont transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie has been phenomenal at lead guard of late, with 17 assists to just four turnovers on the road trip.
Positively Puzzling
Oregon (5–4)
The Ducks laid an egg at Minnesota over the weekend, continuing an up-and-down season in Eugene. Oregon has a great résumé thanks to the work it did in November, and a pair of late rallies at Penn State and Ohio State have kept it in solid standing. That said, since Dec. 1, T-Rank has Oregon as just the 42nd-best team in the country, and that number looks even worse (No. 73) when looking from Jan. 1 on.
UCLA (6–4)
The Bruins have won four straight after losing four in a row and five of six. The rotations change regularly, the latest move pushing sophomore center Aday Mara into major minutes after topping 15 minutes just twice in his first 18 games. Right now, this is a hard team to trust, but when the Bruins defend at the level they’re capable of, they can beat anyone in the Big Ten.
Ohio State (4–5)
The best of Ohio State includes wins at Purdue and on a neutral court against Kentucky. The worst? Late-game collapses, home losses to a floundering Indiana team and more. The two top-tier wins give the Buckeyes a shot at going dancing, but relying on them for anything more than that is a risky errand.
Trending Down
Indiana (5–5)
The Hoosiers are in freefall, losers of four of five heading into a brutal stretch during which they’ll be double-digit underdogs in three of their next four. While still in the bubble conversation for now, stumbling through this upcoming stretch would likely eliminate them from serious contention and bring further attention to Mike Woodson’s hot seat status in Bloomington.
Nebraska (2–7)
Six straight losses have the Cornhuskers’ once-promising NCAA tournament outlook appearing rather shaky. There’s time to right the ship, but the Huskers have dug themselves a hole that will be difficult to climb out of, with home losses to Rutgers and USC that could hurt on Selection Sunday. Right now, just making the Big Ten tournament isn’t a guarantee.
Iowa (4–6)
The Hawkeyes got blitzed by Ohio State in Columbus on Monday, a fourth loss in five games and another underwhelming showing for a group trending away from the bubble. KenPom has Fran McCaffery’s club favored in just one game the rest of the way; this one could get ugly.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as State of the Big Ten: Which Men’s Hoops Teams Have Separated From the Pack.
