Infrastructure spending will keep Queensland in the red over the next four years but the opposition has accused the state government of "cooking the books" over forecast blowouts.
Treasurer David Janetzki handed down his first mid-year financial update on Thursday, revealing a contrary outlook to the former Labor government's final budget.
The state's four-year capital program is projected to increase by $22.6 billion to $130 billion thanks to health, road and transport projects, dams and energy, Olympic Games infrastructure and the high-voltage CopperString 2032 transmission line.
Debt is forecast to be $46 billion higher than the June budget with a $4.9 billion revised forecast deficit for 2024/25, an operating deficit of $6.9 billion for 2025/26 and deficits of $9.2 billion in the two years after.
Surplus predictions by Labor in the final two years of forward estimates have been scrapped, while Mr Janetzki has cast doubt on the LNP's pre-election ambition to return the budget to the black by 2026-27.
"I always want to target an operating surplus, but now that we know the true extent of the deterioration of the books, that will be a serious challenge," he told reporters on Thursday.
Deputy opposition leader Cameron Dick accused the government of juicing up the state's debt forecast by adding expenses without a business case, resulting in a risk to Queensland's credit rating.
"This is a government so hell-bent on attacking Labor and denigrating Labor that they're prepared to jeopardise the budget," he said.
"The LNP are cooking the books to create the worst possible set of numbers to soften up Queensland as for what comes next, and that includes cuts."
Mr Janetzki flagged before the mid-year budget review there could be a credit rating downgrade from S&P's 15-year-long AA+, but now he believes it is a certainty.
Despite the financial pressures, the treasurer maintained Queenslanders will not lose essential services.
Total revenue from royalties in 2024/25 fell by 37.5 per cent to $4.7 billion on the previous year, a $420 million dip from June's forecast.
The fall was driven by lower-than-anticipated coal export volumes and a faster-than-expected decline in hard coking coal price, offset by a weaker Australian dollar.
Government borrowings earlier forecast to be $172 billion in June for the 2027/28 financial year are now expected to rise to $217.8 billion.
Non-financial public sector borrowings per capita in Queensland are set to pass NSW in 2025 and Victoria in 2027/28.
After the LNP's election win, the treasurer said he had found a shopping list of expenditure overruns and blow-outs putting pressure on the bottom line.
The LNP claims the construction cost of the athletes' village for the 2032 Olympics is set to balloon to $3.5 billion.
Queensland Hydro revealed the Sunshine Coast's Borumba Pumped Hydro project had blown out by $4 billion to a total of $18 billion.
The government also claims the centrepiece Cross River Rail project connecting Brisbane will cost at least $17 billion when it was originally slated to have a $5.4 billion price tag.
