The below normal monsoon has kept the State on tenterhooks forcing the State agencies to be ready with contingency plans.
The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) has conducted a first round of assessment of the ground situation in the State in the wake of a weak monsoon. The agency will submit a report to the government by next week suggesting measures to mitigate the impact of drought in case the monsoon continues to be weak during the remaining period of the southwest monsoon season and subsequently during the northeast monsoon season.
According to sources, the first level criteria (threshold one) for declaring the drought is satisfactory, which is mainly based on rainfall deficit data. For declaring drought, however, an assessment of groundwater level and reservoir storage level has to be conducted. This can be done only by September as there are still 40 days left in the southwest monsoon season. Though a big spell is not anticipated during the remaining period in August and in September, an assessment during the last phase of the season would be ideal as there would be more clarity in the northeast monsoon forecast by that time, said officials.
Dip in reservoir levels
Various other State agencies have also been assessing various parameters, including groundwater availability, as a drop in rainfall has already impacted the storage in major reservoirs under the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) and the Irrigation department. Not only the volume of rain, but the real concern is often about the spatial and temporal spread of the southwest monsoon in the State, which accounts for around 80% of the annual rainfall in Kerala.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low pressure area formed over the Bay of Bengal now lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining the West Bengal-north Odisha coasts. Under the influence of the system, the West Coast may see some rain for the next four to five days, but not sufficient enough to decrease the deficiency in South India, especially in Kerala, where the rain deficit is 45%, according to Skymet Weather.
As per the current inference, only a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can negate the impact of El Nino, a climatic pattern in which warming waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean have a significant impact on the Indian monsoon. But the IOD is yet to breach the threshold mark and it is still within the neutral bounds. The IOD needs to rise steeply to break the shackles of Pacific warming, according to Skymet Weather.
