Sir Keir Starmer’s post-Brexit reset of relations with Brussels have been branded anaemic, with the prime minister warned that his EU policy is vague and unambitious.
In a damning report to mark the fifth anniversary of Britain’s departure from the European Union, UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) said it appears that EU policy appears “peripheral to Starmer’s government”.
And, despite the PM and Rachel Reeves relentlessly focusing on economic growth, the EU relations think tank said it was remarkable that the chancellor’s October Budget failed to mention the impacts of Brexit once.
The Brexit Files, published on Tuesday by UKICE, lays bare the impact of Brexit on areas of the economy such as trade, immigration and defence, as well as the state of Sir Keir’s attempts to rebuild ties with Brussels.
In a series of essays, experts set out how, despite the promises of Brexiteers, trade and investment into Britain has fallen while net migration has soared to record levels.
But, despite Sir Keir’s frequent overtures to Brussels, UKICE researcher Jannike Wachowiak said Labour’s policy on the the EU since being elected in July has been “vague”.
“What has been proposed so far is small in scale and technical, rather than a vision for a substantially different relationship,” she said, ahead of a key meeting between Sir Keir and EU leaders next week.
In a damning assessment, she said the party has so far given little indication of how it intends to deliver on its manifesto commitment to deepen ties with Europe, while focusing more on its red lines around freedom of movement, the customs union and the single market.
Ms Wachowiak said: “It is difficult to avoid the impression that EU policy is peripheral to Starmer’s government.
“This is most noticeable when it comes to the government’s mission to grow the economy.
“Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget sets out a roadmap on how to drive growth without mentioning the impacts of Brexit once. Her Mansion House speech acknowledges the ‘structural challenges’ caused by Brexit and vows, in the same breath, not to reverse its foundations.”
With official forecasts predicting 4 per cent will be wiped from the size of Britain’s economy in the long run due to Brexit, Ms Wachowiak said lower economic growth appears to be “baked into Labour’s strategy”.
And she warned that, despite public opinion having swung decisively against Brexit, the lack of pressure on Sir Keir from pro-Europeans could see Starmer’s EU policy “remain anaemic”.
In another essay as part of The Brexit Files, Sir Keir received a damning warning over the likelihood of the EU agreeing an overhaul of the existing Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) underpinning Britain’s trade with the bloc.
University of Warwick European public policy professor Hussein Kassim and Forward College international relations assistant professor Dr Cleo Davies said there is “no appetite on the EU side to reopen negotiations on the TCA”.
In Sir Keir’s meetings with EU leaders, including European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European officials have repeatedly called for the “full and faithful” implementation of existing deals, suggesting there is little room for any major new agreements to be struck.
But, in a boost for Sir Keir, the bloc said the EU is open to closer ties, notably around security, where the PM has announced plans for a new defence pact with the EU.
Ahead of Sir Keir’s working dinner with EU leaders on Monday, European Council president António Costa said: “The UK is a key partner for the European Union, notably in the field of defence. I expect the discussion to focus on that dimension of our relationship."
The UKICE report was also littered with damning statistics about the impact of Brexit, including that financial services exports have fallen to levels 33 per cent below their 2007 peak, with legal and financial services particularly exposed to the loss of mutual recognition of professional qualifications.
And the report warned that, as a consequence of Brexit, investment into the UK may have been 10 per cent lower than expected, with productivity and the size of the economy being hit by 1 per cent.
A government spokesman said: “This government is ambitious about resetting this relationship, to drive economic growth, make the British people more safe, secure and prosperous. Ministers have had very positive engagement in more than 60 direct meetings with their EU Counterparts.
“The prime minister and president of the European Commission have set out key areas to work on strengthening cooperation in mutually beneficial areas, such as the economy, energy, security and resilience.
“Work is taking place across government to drive the reset forward, leading up to the first UK-EU Summit, taking place in the first half of 2025.”
