Since the beginning of the year, there has been a marked difference between the effusive and slightly over-the-top kind words Donald Trump has used about Keir Starmer and the appalling things his key supporters have been saying about the prime minister. This, along with the contemptuous briefings against him and his government.
But this last week, all has become crystal clear about the mafia boss-style game Trump is using in his relations with his beloved UK – the land of his mother. And his political heavy JD “knuckle dusters” Vance is a big part of that strategy.
It was highlighted in the Oval Office in the afterglow of Trump getting the letter from the King he had hankered for, asking him to be the first person in history to get a second state visit to the UK.
A reporter asked a question about vice-president JD Vance’s attack on Britain in his incredibly hostile Munich speech where he claimed Starmer’s government was engaged in an assault on free speech, not least with its plans to impose laws restricting online and social media activity.
The president paused for a moment and then, turning to his vice-president, asked him to explain what he meant. Vance did not hold back and a slightly alarmed-looking Starmer felt the need to jump in to remind everyone that Britain “has had free speech for hundreds of years… and will continue to have free speech for hundreds of years”.
It was not exactly the meltdown in the Oval Office that followed 24 hours later, when Vance publicly launched an attack on Ukraine’s President Zelensky, but it was a noticeably awkward moment in an atmosphere of mutual back-slapping and bonhomie.
As we all took to our laptops to congratulate the prime minister on a diplomatic victory, apparently edging Trump closer to starting trade deal talks and getting his support for the Chagos Islands deal, that moment began to loom large.
It did not take long for friends connected to the Trump team to contact me about what had happened there. And there was an interesting answer to the contrast between Trump and Vance.
“Don’t take Trump’s comments at face value. He could just be softening Starmer for another reason,” one said.
But perhaps a more significant warning: “JD is his mouthpiece. He says what Trump doesn’t want to say personally.”
This explains why Trump did not want to ruin the moment with the letter from the King and praising Starmer’s “wonderful, beautiful wife” with a sour note on free speech and social media, instead asking his vice-president to do his dirty work.
It also explains why, 24 hours later, Vance was the rottweiler unleashed to rip apart Zelensky in front of the world, in the middle of the Oval Office, before Trump himself intervened.
Back in Munich, Vance said what people connected to the administration have been saying for months. The aggressive language used by Vance and in briefings represents Trump’s view of Starmer and the UK government much more than his praise for the “special man” prime minister with his “lovely accent” – words nobody has ever thought, let alone said, about the PM’s voice.
But then, here is the crux of the problem.
When Trump formally announced that US-UK trade talks were underway – saying that “we will have a deal very quickly, I think” – he pointed to his vice-president, saying Vance would be leading those talks for the US.
Vance is among those who want to impose tariffs on the UK over what they believe is a two-tier legal system, a policing of social media with people going to prison for the content of their tweets, and new laws coming in cracking down on social media.
It does not take much imagination to know what will be at the top of his demands when those talks begin. He will be cheered from the rafters and X by Elon Musk.
The trouble is the gulf between Vance and the UK on this issue. Lord Mandelson and Starmer dismiss their plans for tackling online abuse as stopping “terrorists, paedophiles and extreme pornographers”. Who could argue with that?
However, Vance and the Trump administration see it as imprisoning people for tweeting about the murders in Southport and immigration. They genuinely believe Tommy Robinson is a political prisoner. They see online restrictions as a protectionist assault on the American tech sector.
Senior British embassy sources in the US have made clear that the UK ambassador to the US, Lord Mandelson, wants a trade deal focused on the new critical industries of artificial intelligence and biosciences.
He rightly believes that it makes sense for the two countries with the most Nobel prize winners, the top two destinations for foreign investment and the top two for universities to connect like this. The partnership could see the UK and US dominate in these spheres as closely connected allies for decades to come.
However, obtaining this vision will come at a price. Trump avoided saying whether the US would impose tariffs on the UK, instead joking about how good a negotiator Starmer was. But Vance wants to make an example of the UK government. He is no friend of the PM’s and the Mandelson vision of the renewed special relationship is second order for him.
The public bullying we saw on Friday of Zelensky will be worse behind the scenes for the UK and other allies.
As one Trump insider ominously warned: “No one appears prepared for the level of aggression the US is going to display. It will be their way or it will be no way at all.”
The UK government does seem aware of this, though, which explains why Starmer and Mandelson have adopted such a supine approach to dealing with the Trump White House. In fact, there was annoyance from the UK embassy in Washington that Zelensky had not heeded the advice to take a similar approach.
Still, rolling over and hoping not to get a kicking is a high-risk strategy when dealing with a rottweiler like Vance and a president like Trump who is happy to keep him off the leash.
