Most Australian rules fans have forgotten (or chosen to forget) that they owned the State of Origin concept for a century before the big boppers in the north caught on. Since the VFL/AFL abandoned their interstate carnivals in 1993 and ceased all state-based clashes in 1999, rugby league’s State of Origin has become “Australian sport’s greatest rivalry” – the purest expression of mate v mate and state v state. It started as an experiment – Australia’s then-captain Bob Fulton predicted “the non-event of the century” – but 43 years on Origin has become the very essence of rugby league.
Every year Origin plays havoc with club sides whose stars are called to representative duty, introduces more byes to the schedule which warps NRL competition points standings, turns a blind eye to throwback thuggery not condoned in the regular season, and baffles even the most ardent fans on its definition of what “origin” means. Yet it draws record crowds, attracts huge TV ratings and screens in more than 100 countries.
In Papua New Guinea it has sparked riots. Even rugby union-mad New Zealanders are besotted. Best of all, it inspires players to create the best version of the game – and themselves – and this 2023 series may be its biggest year yet. The series opener is being played in Adelaide for the first time in its history (though there are doubts over whether the game will sell out). And now that the NRL is reportedly close to launching the 2024-28 regular seasons with a game in Las Vegas, NFL-mad Americans may soon join the Origin party too.
Until Latrell Mitchell’s withdrawal on Monday morning with a calf strain, New South Wales had selected a magnificent side for Game One on Wednesday. Two blockbuster players in Tom Trbojevic and Mitchell were to be reunited in the centre with the game’s fastest legs in the shortest shorts, Josh Addo-Carr, back on the wing. With captain James Tedesco at No 1 and Penrith’s brilliant wing Brian To’o, it was a backline with 35 Origin tries between them, more than any Blues back five in history.
Mitchell’s absence is a massive blow to the Blues and fans on both sides; in 2021, the “Trell and Turbo show” led to 50-6 and 26-0 victories for NSW. But the naming of Stephen Crichton as Mitchell’s replacement and Matt Burton’s recall as 18th man further strengthens NSW’s Panthers-heavy spine of halves Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and their premiership-winning hooker Apisai Koroisau.
Despite this firepower, Blues assistant coach Andrew Johns says 80% of the side’s preparation has centred around defence. It’s a sure sign NSW intend to monster the Maroons with bone-rattling tackles and in-your-face line speed, then batter them with the heavy artillery of Payne Haas, Tevita Pangai and Junior Paulo. They will draw a target on the damaged ribs of Cameron Munster and try to cut the head of the snake by throwing captain Daly Cherry-Evans off his game.
Queensland know what is coming. The last time these sides met, in the crazy decider at Suncorp Stadium in 2022, three players were concussed in the first three minutes. Billy Slater’s squad is missing warhorse Josh Papali’i but Tom Gilbert, David Fifita and Patrick Carrigan will run out. If they can match the Blues barrage upfront in the early exchanges, hookers Ben Hunt and Harry Grant will counter with guile and unleash their own flyers Selwyn Cobbo, Reece Walsh and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow.
Power and speed. Cunning and chaos. Pride in the jersey and trust in your teammates. It makes Origin intoxicating entertainment for fans but can tip players into red mist territory. NSW debutants Nicho Hynes, Hudson Young and Pangai and Maroons No 1 Walsh will taste a faster, fiercer, more fatiguing and character-exposing game. Under these lights, there is nowhere to hide.
When the Queensland dynasty of 10 wins from 11 series (2006-16) ended it seemed certain Brad Fittler’s young lions would forge a blue streak of their own. But since 2017, it’s three series apiece. Fittler’s reign started with consecutive wins in 2018-19, the Blues’ first since 2004-05, but Wayne Bennett’s Maroons sprang an upset in 2020 as Billy Slater’s team did in 2022. This series is as evenly poised as any in this generation, with Queensland’s 2010 series the only 3-0 sweep since 2000.
Last year at Suncorp, with a minute to play and NSW attacking close to the line, Cleary sniffed victory and put the ball on that golden boot of his. Ben Hunt saw the kick coming, charged it down and raced 90-metres to score a try that sealed the match and series. Yet again, glorious victory and abject defeat in Origin was decided in a single moment by a slight miscalculation and a sweet stroke of genius. When the chance comes on Wednesday and the lightning is there to be bottled, who will be the one?
Follow the 2023 State of Origin series opener in Adelaide with Guardian Australia’s minute-by-minute live blog. Kick-off on Wednesday night is 8.05pm AEST
