That’s not ideal: after nailing their New Orleans Saints record prediction in 2022, Sports Illustrated forecasts another losing record for the Saints in 2023. SI’s Conor Orr is skeptical about Derek Carr’s ability to elevate a Saints offense that he believes is short on playmakers.
Combine that perceived lack of firepower with an aging defense leaning on too many cornerstones on the wrong side of 30, and Orr is predicting the Saints to repeat with the same 7-10 record that they experienced last year. Here’s his explanation:
“Most of New Orleans’s first five games feel perilous. Traveling to Carolina and New England may look like easy games to tick off in the win column, but this is a very veteran unit. A lot of the Saints’ early opponents are younger, faster and match up well with what the Saints do best defensively. I think if they are able to capably adopt a Jon Gruden–lite offense, Derek Carr can spread the ball around to his talented wide receiver corps, but their offseason behavior, like kicking the tires on Jimmy Graham again, suggest they are still hungry for playmakers. Carr had Davante Adams a year ago and the Raiders still struggled mightily.”
It’s worth noting that Orr correctly guessed the Saints’ finish last season. In particular, he pointed to a seven-week stretch in the middle of New Orleans’ schedule as a hazardous zone that could sink their season, and the Saints went 2-5. One of their few wins at that time was a shutout against the Las Vegas Raiders, quarterbacked by — you guessed it — Carr, their new starter.
And a 7-10 finish wouldn’t be good enough to get the Saints into the playoffs in Orr’s simulation. He has the Atlanta Falcons winning the division with an 8-9 record, just like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did last year (who are currently capsizing to a 2-15 catastrophe in his preseason picks), pointing to their influx of talent and the second-year growth of young quarterback Desmond Ridder as causes for optimism. The Carolina Panthers have been a trendy pick but Orr predicts them to trail the Saints with a 7-10 tally and worse record in the division.
So maybe Orr is guessing correctly yet again. Or maybe he isn’t giving the Saints enough credit for surrounding Carr with weapons. Their offense was a disaster last year, but they’ve taken pains to bring him help like running backs Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller, tight end Foster Moreau (and Graham, who figures to play a bit part at best), and young receivers like A.T. Perry. At the same time, there’s clearly room for more pass-catchers on the depth chart. Adding an accomplished veteran to the mix would be worthwhile. But it might be too late in the offseason to pull off that kind of acquisition.
What would a 7-10 record mean for New Orleans? It would have to be the end of the line for Dennis Allen. The Saints hired him as their head coach citing his ability to keep their talented core together and remain a regular playoff contender. That’s a tough sell for someone who had a career record of 8-28 with the Raiders when they hired him. After another 7-10 season he’d have an all-time record of 22-48. Four head coaches have worked 70 games in the NFL before being dismissed. One one of them, Bill McPeak (21-46-3), won fewer games than Allen would have upon reaching his 70th game.
Through two years he would have two losing records, zero playoff berths, and the losses of veteran starters like Marcus Williams, Terron Armstead, David Onyemata, and Marcus Davenport to show for it. Allen doesn’t need to win a Super Bowl to keep his job, but the Saints can’t run it back with him a third time if these are the results he’s getting.
