By late fall, Fox sold out advertising spots for Super Bowl LIX, set for Feb. 9 at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
Months before the teams (the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs) were set or the halftime show headliner (Kendrick Lamar) announced, companies were committing a staggering $7 million for just 30 seconds of airtime. With more than 90 ads airing during the Super Bowl, most running 30 seconds and a few stretching to 60, it’s a high-stakes race for attention on the biggest advertising stage of the year.
These decisions aren’t made with the necessary care—they’re hurried along as if it’s the two-minute warning in the Super Bowl. In conference rooms, phrases like “brand synergy” and “cultural footprint” are tossed around like confetti. What’s missing in these discussions is an honest acknowledgment of the $10 million-plus price tag once you factor in airtime, production, teasers, client entertainment, staff hours, and a mountain of hidden costs.
Who’s making these bold bets? It’s not just ad agencies convincing startups that one quirky spot will make them a household name. It’s also veteran snack, beer, and soda giants, as well as carmakers who treat Super Bowl advertising like an annual pilgrimage. Every fall, these companies—rookies and veterans alike—double down on Super Bowl ads with confidence that could inspire a Harvard case study. But the numbers don’t lie: Spending $10 million on a single ad is about as smart as pinning your retirement on a scratch-off win.
When your big-game ad becomes a big-game flop
Picture this: It’s October. Pumpkin spice is everywhere, like Starbuck’s coffee…and your marketing team has convinced you to buy a Super Bowl spot. You have no idea what the ad will be about—but feel compelled to be there. It’s the Super Bowl! How else will anyone know your brand exists? But when game day finally arrives, everything has changed.
October’s trends become January’s cringe. The first celebrity booked for your ad canceled after a messy online scandal. Suddenly, $10 million-plus feels less like a marketing investment and more like an expensive lesson in panic-driven decision-making.
The $7 million fee to purchase a 30-second spot is just the starting line. Producing a high-end Super Bowl ad easily costs another $4 million to $10 million depending on whether you’ve decided to engage one celebrity or three…and the extent of computer-generated images. Ads need explosions and notable effects, text that resonates…and maybe a lovable Labrador puppy or talking horse.
Then come the extras: teaser campaigns, international rights, client entertainment, flights, hotels, and enough shrimp cocktails to feed a small nation. By kickoff, your budget ballooned past $10 million.
Reality of “cultural impact” being a moment…it sure is a moment!
Why do companies do this? Because they believe in the Super Bowl’s mythical power to create a moment. Super Bowl ads claim “unmatched reach,” attracting 120 million U.S. viewers and millions more through international broadcasts and digital platforms—further expanded by streaming, albeit with added costs.
Here’s the thing no one talks about: Super Bowl ads create a moment, but that moment lasts about as long as it takes someone to refill the nachos bowl. In reality, during ads, half the viewers are in the kitchen, scrolling Instagram…or locked in a heated debate over the quarterback’s last call.
Thinking back, I only remember the Budweiser Clydesdales (in the last few years) and Coca-Cola with Mean Joe Greene (in 1980). I don’t even drink Coke or Bud. How about you?
Returning advertisers and their quest for glory
You’d think seasoned advertisers would know better, especially brands that have been through it all, surviving lukewarm reviews and enduring the inevitable “meh” tweets. Yet, like moths to a flame, they return each year, chasing the ever-elusive dream of crafting the perfect Super Bowl ad.
The problem? The bar keeps rising. Last year’s celebrity? This year, two celebs—with pets and CGI aliens. Last year’s humor? This year, ads must be hilarious and heartwarming, simultaneously.
Danger of trying too hard
Super Bowl advertising is a paradox: The harder you try, the harder you flop.
What starts as a straightforward idea—“Let’s showcase our product”—snowballs into a cinematic masterpiece starring a wise-cracking hamster voiced by Morgan Freeman and a choir of singing dolphins. By the time your ad airs, it’s no longer about your product. It’s about proving your creative team endured caffeine-fueled groupthink and sheer ambition. Some ads are heartwarming, some hilarious…others plain bizarre.
That’s the risk—spending millions only to leave viewers saying, “What was that?” instead of, “Where can I buy it?” Consider last November’s ultra avant-garde Jaguar ad. Instead of asking, “Where’s the beef?” we were left wondering, “Where’s the car?”
Sure, Super Bowl ads are about taking risks, but maybe they don’t have to reinvent the wheel every year. Sometimes, simply saying “here’s why our product is awesome” does the trick.
Final score: Ads entertain, real impact comes from purpose
Just for the record, I’m a big football fan. I played in school, I get pumped for the season, playoffs, and especially the Super Bowl. But as an investor and a shareholder in several companies buying TV ads, watching companies blow $12 million-plus—of other people’s money—on a single ad is like seeing piles of cash thrown into a bonfire in hopes the smoke magically forms a brand’s name
Why not take that Super Bowl budget and invest in something with staying power? Imagine a year-long thought leadership or communications campaign that delivers results—immersive experiences people rave about, or partnerships with influencers who connect authentically, instead of contrived product endorsements.
Super Bowl champions aren’t the ones who outspend the competition—they’re the ones who deliver electrifying performances that cement their place in history and fans’ hearts. Advertisers should take note.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
