As the world population ticked over 8 billion this week, the executive director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), said she didn’t expect people to celebrate. “Some express concerns that our world is overpopulated, with far too many people and insufficient resources to sustain their lives. I am here to say clearly that the sheer number of human lives is not a cause for fear,” said Dr Natalia Kanem.
Rather, as UN Secretary General António Guterres pointed out, inequality is of greater concern. And right now, the world has a rare window to address it. The global number of people aged 10-24 is the highest it’s ever been. This presents the opportunity for the poorest countries’ economies to be jump-started, with lasting benefits.
Every surfer knows that when the wave is building, you have to paddle furiously to catch the ride to shore. It’s an apt metaphor for the demographic waves rolling through some of the world’s nations. A bulge of young people are coming into working age in countries like Nigeria, Indonesia, India and Cambodia. To catch the wave, governments of young countries will need to paddle hard.
They can create job opportunities and education institutions to ensure their young workers are maximally productive.
They can ensure health infrastructure and policy are keeping young workers fit and effective.
They can support migration to attract workers to where they are most needed.
And they can deliver social initiatives to fully employ women and slow down birth rates to minimise the number of dependents young families must care for.
It’s a lot to ask of a developing nation. Arms flailing, legs kicking, they have only a few years to realise the opportunity. Else, it becomes not a dividend, but a future tax: a cohort of ageing poor who will need government support to survive.
REALITY CHECK
More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.
India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.
The world human population will reach 9 billion in approximately 2037.
BIG IDEAS
Quote attributable to Xiujian Peng, Victoria University:
"In China, a rapidly ageing population and declining fertility are set to plant a bomb under the economic boom."
Quote attributable to Jayan Jose Thomas, the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi:
"The energies of India’s young women and men can only be tapped with strategic investments and interventions by the government, alongside well-directed social, employment and industrial policies."
Quote attributable to Deboshree Ghosh, the University of Malaya:
"Reaping a demographic dividend requires careful and long-term planning."
PERSPECTIVES
Three essentials to cashing in on population growth Deboshree Ghosh, University of Malaya The benefits of a growing demographic are not guaranteed. Governments need to ensure the right tools are in place as well.
China’s older people risk curtailing the prosperity they created Xiujian Peng, Victoria University China's economic and family planning policies of the 1970s ushered in a 'golden age' of growth. But as China ages, keeping it golden will be a challenge.
Sandwich generation must also save for themselves Sonny Harry B. Harmadi, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Sandwiched between the aged and the youth, with a societal expectation to care for both, millions of Indonesians are struggling.
Fishing for the demographic dividend Nawawi, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) To catch the potential demographic bonus, Indonesia should use its biggest asset: fishing nets.
Indonesia at risk of missing golden economic opportunity Werry Darta Taifur, Andalas University A difficult road lies ahead for Indonesia. Faced with a rare opportunity to turbo-charge economic growth, it has major problems yet to solve.
Can India seize the demographic advantage? Jayan Jose Thomas, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi If India is to seize the advantage of its burgeoning young workforce, it needs to strategically implement economic and industrial policies.
Mobile Indonesians powering the economy Meirina Ayumi Malamassam, Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) Population growth isn’t automatically good for Indonesia. Developing young people, and helping them to move are both key to economic development.
