Spain will be voting in a snap general election on Sunday. Despite negative polls, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is hoping to win by remobilising the left to prevent a possible coalition between the conservative People’s Party and the far-right Vox party, according to Maria Elisa Alonso, a political scientist specialising in Spain.
On Sunday, July 23, amid a severe heatwave, Spaniards will head to the polls to vote in a snap general election that looks set to be a gamble for Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
The Socialist leader, in power since 2018, called the elections after the left suffered a series of setbacks in the dual municipal and regional elections of May 28. These losses greatly benefited the conservative People’s Party (PP), which managed to wrestle many of the country’s mayoralties and regional leadership posts from the left. The far right, represented by the Vox party led by Santiago Abascal, also made inroads.
The day after this electoral debacle, Sanchez announced the dissolution of parliament and called for early general elections, which were initially due to be held at the end of this year.
The head of the Spanish government is therefore taking a great risk, as he could lose his post if the left is defeated in these legislative elections. FRANCE 24 asked Maria Elisa Alonso, a political scientist and lecturer at France's University of Lorraine specialising in Spain and Latin America, for her analysis of the stakes.
FRANCE 24: Sanchez is taking a gamble with these snap legislative elections, as they could bring the far right to power. What criticism has been levelled by the opposition against the prime minister’s record?
Maria Elisa Alonso: The opposition, composed mostly of the PP and Vox, have been touting anti-Sanchez discourse for months and intend to repeal all the structural reforms he has implemented. Headlines like "Finish with 'Sanchismo'" have been circulating in the press. The whole electoral campaign has revolved around this issue.
In particular, the opposition has criticised Sanchez for calling on the EH Bildu, a Basque pro-independence party, to approve his housing law.
Interestingly enough, the economy is not a crucial issue in this election, as Spain is doing well on this front: economic results are good and inflation is not soaring. As such, the opposition has not brought up this subject or international issues.
Instead, social issues such as LGBT rights and euthanasia, basically anything to do with 'traditional values', have been the focus of this campaign. If it comes to power, the PP has already said that – with or without Vox – it would like to reform the law on LGBT rights and repeal the euthanasia law.
What do the polls say about voting trends?
According to all the polls, the PP will win the election and the Socialist Workers' Party will come in a close second. Spain is a highly polarised society, which is why this will be such a tight election.
A majority in the Congress of Deputies (176 MPs) is needed to be sworn in as the head of government. Polls currently indicate that the PP will secure around 150 seats, which is not an absolute majority. Everything will depend on which political party comes third in the elections. That's where it's going to come down to the wire.
Some polls put either Vox or Sumar (a left-wing coalition) in third place, with a difference of one or two MPs. Anything can happen, and there is no way of knowing for sure who will come in third, as it will come down to a few votes. Everything seems to indicate that the PP will win the elections, but it remains to be seen whether it will need Vox’s backing.
Does Sanchez still have a chance, despite the left's stunning losses in the municipal and regional elections? What are his strengths?
I think he can remain in power. After the two municipal and regional elections, it was clear that the PP needed Vox to form coalition governments at the regional and local levels. During the campaign, Sanchez used the fear of the far right coming to power to mobilise the left-wing electorate, which is generally scattered by nature. Sanchez is not playing on his popularity.
Furthermore, the PP only has Vox as a natural ally and perhaps one or two small regional groups as well, but they don't represent many MPs.
Sanchez, on the other hand, can join forces with Sumar and regional and local parties. He has a much wider range of possibilities than the PP does. For example, the leader of the Basque Nationalist Party – a neo-liberal formation that is fairly close to the PP on economic issues – has said that he will never support the PP if Vox is part of the coalition.
In the event the left is defeated and the PP comes out on top, will the latter have to form an alliance with the far right?
If the PP fails to secure 176 seats it will be forced to form an alliance with Vox, just as it did after the municipal and regional elections. For instance, the regional president of the Extremadura region (in western Spain) was elected thanks to a coalition with Vox.
Moreover, the PP's electorate does not perceive this connection between the two political forces as negative. It is worth noting that the leader of Vox was a PP leader in the Basque region for 20 years.
Apart from certain characteristics that are specific to the far right, such as denying climate change or not recognising male violence, they align with the PP on many issues, such as the euthanasia law and certain economic matters.
This article has been translated from the original in French.
