Spain's main opposition People's Party (PP) is poised to win a parliamentary election expected by the end of the year but will need an alliance with the far-right Vox to achieve a working majority, according to an opinion poll released on Wednesday.
The survey carried out by private pollster 40dB for El Pais newspaper also showed the ruling Socialists (PSOE) losing some ground since the previous poll in April, when the party was almost neck and neck with the PP.
The new poll includes two scenarios based on whether the leftist electoral platform Sumar, launched last month by Labour Minister Yolanda Diaz, and the junior partner in the Socialist-led ruling coalition, Unidas Podemos, decide to run separately or together.
If they run separately, PP and Vox would come closer to securing an absolute majority with 170 lawmakers in the 350-seat parliament. However, if Sumar and Unidas Podemos run together, a potential right-wing coalition would get 161 seats, the poll suggested.
The Socialists of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez would win 100 seats if Sumar and Unidas Podemos run separately or 97 if the two left-wing parties run together. However that latter scenario would also produce a better outcome for the Socialists who would then be able to muster a total of 152 seats in any hypothetical coalition with the two smaller left-wing parties.
It remains unclear whether Unidas Podemos will join Sumar or compete against it for left-wing votes.
Other opinion polls have also pointed to a fragmented parliament in which no party would have a sufficient majority to govern alone.
(Reporting by Emma Pinedo; Editing by Gareth Jones)
