Spain this week confirmed an explosive report that it is considering supplying the Ukrainian army with dozens of Leopard 2 main battle tanks. The move would make Spain the first NATO-country to provide Kyiv with modern third-generation military vehicles and could heavily impact Ukraine’s chances in its battles against Russia in Donbas. But the news has put Berlin in a tough spot since its lawmakers would have the final say on whether the German-built super tanks ought to roll in Ukraine or not.
“The possibility of making this shipment is on the table,” Spain’s Defence Minister Margarita Robles on Wednesday confirmed to Spanish broadcaster Cadena SER, after daily newspaper El Pais on the weekend revealed the government was considering sending around 40 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine.
According to the paper, which cited government sources, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had made the offer to Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelensky already during an April 21 visit to Kyiv, but said the plans had then temporarily been put on hold due to the complexity of the operation.
The article also said that Spain had offered to provide Ukrainian troops with the necessary training to operate the tanks, which would take place in Latvia where Spain currently has 500 soldiers deployed as part of NATO’s Enhanced Advanced Presence operation.
Mothballed for a decade
In 1995, Spain bought 108 Leopard 2 main battle tanks from Germany. Around 40 of them were deemed surplus, and have for the past decade or so been left gathering dust in an army logistics base in Zaragoza. These are the tanks that Madrid is now considering delivering to Kyiv.
But even though Spain sees no immediate use for these tanks itself, handing them over to Ukraine would represent a huge leap in the West’s military support for Kyiv. “It would be the first time a NATO country supplied [Ukraine with] modern Western battle tanks,” German media stated shortly after El Pais published its article, noting Russia might interpret the move as a deliberate escalation of the conflict, and could go as far as accuse NATO of acting as a co-belligerent to Kyiv.
The tanks would inevitably boost Kyiv’s capabilities on the battlefield, where up until now it has had to make do with mainly Soviet-era T-64 and T-72 vehicles from the 1970s.
Gustav Gressel, an expert on Russian military issues at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said that there are two main problems with these old USSR-era tanks. “They’re starting to run out […] and some components are only available via Russia which is far from ideal considering the current context.”
Alexandre Vautravers, a security and armaments expert and editor at the military magazine Revue Militaire Suisse (RMS), also pointed to the fact that these tanks are not fit for modern warfare. "They are what we call second-generation tanks, manufactured until the 1970s, whereas the Leopard 2s are third-generation tanks."
What difference would Leopard 2 make in Donbas?
According to Vautravers, switching to Leopard 2 would be a huge lift for the Ukrainian army in Donbas, considering Russia has mainly deployed second-generation – albeit upgraded – tanks to the area.
"The armour of the third-generation tanks, especially on the front, is twice as effective as on previous-generation vehicles," he explained.
They also have much greater firepower: The firing rate is faster, and the ammunition used can pierce armour to a much greater extent than second-generation tanks ever could.
The Leopard 2s are also much more mobile. Although there is not that much difference in top-speed (70 km/h versus 60 km/h), "these vehicles can accelerate much easier and move much quicker in difficult terrain," he said.
"The on-board electronics have made considerable progress," he added, pointing to the Leopard 2’s digital fire control system, as well as some of its other high-tech features, which include advanced night vision and sighting equipment.
In all, Vautravers said a Leopard 2 tank in motion can “fire with almost as much precision as if it were standing still", and are much quicker to fire off the first shot “which is often decisive in a tank versus tank confrontation."
In order to take advantage of the Leopard 2’s full potential, however, Vautravers underscored the importance for the Ukrainians to get proper training, since second-generation and third-generation tanks were not at all built for the same purposes. “If it would be used in the same way [as a second-generation tank] – to defend yourself basically – you wouldn’t see a big difference,” he said, noting the Leopard 2’s strengths lie in its offensive capabilities.
Tough spot for Germany
But there is another hurdle that could prevent Ukraine from receiving the super tanks – the fact that they were manufactured in Germany. According to German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung this means that Berlin would have to approve Madrid’s potential export of Leopard 2s to Kyiv.
But the topic of sending tanks to Ukraine is especially sensitive in Germany, where discussions have so far only been limited to potentially supplying Kyiv with second-generation vehicles. And even those plans have been slow to get off the ground.
“For historical reasons, [German Chancellor Olaf] Scholz is very afraid of the political impact of images showing German tanks firing at Russians," Gressel explained.
Spain’s potential plans to send third-generation German tanks to Ukraine would therefore make Berlin more than uncomfortable, which, up until now, has been able to argue that even if it chooses not to equip Ukraine with tanks itself, other European countries are free to do so.
The latest developments in Spain, however, have made it clear that “Germany makes and supplies tanks to almost half of Europe”, Gressel said.
Europe’s willingness to support Kyiv with modern military equipment, therefore, seems to depend more on Germany than any other country on the continent.
This article was translated from the original in French.
