It is doubtful that Alan Turing himself could devise a method to decipher the inscrutable face of Steve Clarke.
If I was hosting a poker game, he’d be right down the bottom of my invite list along with Steve McManaman and those dancing folk off the telly who have just ‘sold their car, to We Buy Any Car’. For different reasons, admittedly.
So, while his squads in the main are along familiar lines, trying to second guess what the Scotland manager is going to do as he cuts his list for the European Championships down to 26 names is like trying to pick the winning lottery numbers. And as you are reading this, you’ll know I’ve had no success there.
There are other things to consider too, such as form and fitness, with the latter particularly pertinent to many among this group of players at the most inopportune moment. Grant Hanley, John Souttar, Ryan Jack, Stuart Armstrong and even Ben Doak could all be classed as fitness concerns within the squad, having either only made their comeback from long-term injury at the tail end of the season or having sat out the campaign finale altogether.
There are also two friendlies still to be played, against Gibraltar in Faro on Monday evening and then against Finland at Hampden next Friday night. Latecomers to the party like James Forrest will hope to use those games to ensure that they rubber stamp their tickets to Germany, and even force their way into Clarke’s thinking for the opening match against the hosts in a couple of weeks’ time. While, of course, steering clear of injury.
If every single member of that 28-man list is fit and firing come a week on Saturday though – and the way Scotland’s luck has been going, that is a big if – the question remains over who the unfortunate pair are going to be who are given the tap on the shoulder.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that one of them will be a goalie. Clarke has named four of them, and among those names, former Motherwell and perhaps soon-to-be Rangers keeper Liam Kelly would seem be the most vulnerable when going on form.
Kelly has been a good servant for the Fir Park outfit, but even he would admit that he is coming off the back of a disappointing personal campaign. However, his place in the squad may be more secure than the outside world would perceive, and for a couple of reasons.
For one, Clarke actually did hint on the day of his provisional squad announcement that he hadn’t ruled out taking all four keepers due to the training workload over the course of the month-long (and hopefully longer) camp.
Following that logic through then, even if he does in fact opt to take the more conventional approach and carry only three keepers, he may feel that the 28-year-old Kelly is better equipped to handle that workload physically than a 41-year-old Craig Gordon off the back of a horrific double leg break and very little football.
The other player whose inclusion even in the long list provoked a raised eyebrow or two was Rangers midfielder Ryan Jack, given that he hasn’t turned out for his club since early March. The 32-year-old has also only played twice for Scotland during this campaign, coming on in the 79th minute of the dead rubber qualifier against Norway at Hampden and in the 89th minute of the friendly defeat to England.
But Clarke, as we know, is fiercely loyal to those who have done him a turn in the past. Jack was a key member of the side that finally ended Scotland’s major tournament hoodoo by beating Serbia in Belgrade and was desperately unlucky to miss Euro 2020 (or ’21) through injury. He was also impressive in the goalless draw with Ukraine that saw Scotland take top spot in their Nations League group.
Both of these matches were a while ago, granted, but Jack has shown that he is a handy man to have around if Clarke wants to stiffen up his midfield, and can offer some added protection in the middle of the park if he wants to switch to a four across the centre too, for example.
So, while my reflex reaction at the time of hearing the squad was that Kelly and Jack would likely be the ones to make way, on reflection, it might not be so clear cut.
When looking at the make-up of the squad too, it seems a little heavy on defenders. There are 11 of them in total.
The four wing backs are as safe as houses, while Kieran Tierney, Jack Hendry, Ryan Porteous and Scott McKenna are too. As will Hanley be, assuming he is fit. That leaves Souttar and Leeds United captain Liam Cooper.
These two are certainly vulnerable, both in terms of their injury status and their place in the hierarchy. Cooper, like Souttar, has had form and fitness issues this term, and hasn’t started for his club since March.
So, taking all of that into account, the two I have landed on who will unfortunately be staying at home this summer are…Kelly and Cooper. The number of other keepers and defenders in the squad - and Gordon's greater experience, in the case of Kelly - did for them in the end.
Time will tell if Clarke feels the same way when he finally brings down his axe. We’re unlikely to get much of a clue before then.
