The selection committee’s work is in the books, and it’s finally time for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament to get underway. With the entire field finally set after a thrilling regular season, we’re on the verge of seeing which teams have a date with Cinderella, who is about to bust your bracket and which coaches have every right to start complaining about their seed.
Who will make it out of Atlanta with an eye on cutting down the nets in San Antonio this year? Here’s a breakdown of the stacked South Regional and who could emerge from one of the toughest parts of the bracket.
State of the No. 1 Seed: Auburn Tigers
Bruce Pearl’s team has lost three of its last four games coming into the tournament but still earned the No. 1 overall seed thanks to an incredible 16–5 mark in Quad 1 games. The Tigers have one of the front-runners for national player of the year in Johni Broome leading the way and get the advantage of playing in a familiar setting for their sub-regional (Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky.) and nearby regional final (just over 90 minutes away from campus in Atlanta). If you were to throw out the last two weeks, this was an easy front-runner to win the national title after they won the toughest league in the country by several games in the regular season. Recency bias is going to cause some folks to shy away from a group that plays great on both sides of the ball—KenPom has Auburn ranked in the top 12 in offensive and defensive efficiency—and have been in big moments together before, but there’s a reason why the Tigers have all the ingredients to be the last team standing.
Toughest Draw: No. 5 Michigan Wolverines
Dusty May’s reward for winning the Big Ten tournament? One of the most difficult No. 5-vs.-12 games in the bracket against a UC San Diego team with the longest winning streak in the country. Then, should the Wolverines get past the Big West champs, they’ll likely face a dangerous Texas A&M Aggies side that is No. 17 in KenPom, before playing the No. 1 overall seed in their backyard. On the whole, the Wolverines overachieved this season in having as good a year as they did, but that did them no favors when it came to their path in the bracket.
Team That Could Bust Your Bracket: No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones showed flashes of being a real national title contender for spurts this season, but injuries have ravaged the group as of late. Coach T.J. Otzelberger announced Sunday that starting guard Keshon Gilbert would remain out after missing time recently with a groin injury. With Tamin Lipsey also dealing with an injury he picked up at the Big 12 tournament, Iowa State could be a prime candidate for an exit far earlier than what its seed suggests.
Player to Watch: Johni Broome, Auburn Tigers
The Florida native has gotten better and better each season, and now the fifth-year senior has a good chance at earning any number of the player of the year awards in the coming weeks. He’s tremendously skilled for a big man, with a savvy post-up game balanced nicely by an outside shot that is far smoother than you would expect from someone who is 6'10". He is the focal point for everything Auburn does, and if he’s playing like he was for much of 2025, then those individual honors won’t be the only thing he leaves college with.
Most Intriguing Matchup: No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons
It’s pretty easy to zero into the No. 5-vs.-12 matchups for upset material given how often that pairing produces unexpected results, and there will be no shortage of people circling this one. To start with, the Wolverines just played a very tough three games in the Big Ten tournament and probably are going to be feeling those extra minutes in their legs as they head to the Big Dance for a Thursday game at altitude in Denver. Meanwhile, Michigan is 336th in the country in turnovers per game, which would already be a red flag going into March but is doubly so against a Tritons side that has forced the third-most nationally. This is UCSD’s first NCAA tournament after it just completed the transition to Division I. It will be playing with an edge in this one as Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones & Co. can introduce themselves on the sport’s biggest stage by taking down Big Blue.
Regional Finalists: No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
It’s chalk in the South, but that’s simply because it’s hard to really trust anybody else in this quadrant of the bracket. Both the Tigers and Spartans have go-to scorers, a hefty dose of veteran presence and some pretty favorable paths to meet at State Farm Arena in the second weekend.
Pick to Win the Region: Auburn
The Tigers have been shaky recently and face the prospect of having to play the Louisville Cardinals in the state of Kentucky in the round of 32, but they’re a safe pick to come out of the South. There’s been an ‘it’ factor with this group this season and Pearl will have his team properly motivated to go out and take care of business in the South Regional to book their tickets to Texas.
Best Bet: UC San Diego (+3.5) vs. Michigan
The Wolverines can give the Tritons some trouble with their double big lineup of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, but this is a nightmare matchup for the Wolverines on the heels of a Big Ten tournament title win and now traveling out West to altitude to face a West Coast threat.
The Tritons have been one of the best stories in college basketball, making the NCAA tournament in their fourth season at the level, but the team is incredibly good as well.
The team owns the longest winning streak in the country with 15 straight victories and is paced by an elite ball pressure unit that is second in the nation in turnover percentage. This is incredibly important as the Wolverines are 328th in turnover percentage and uber reliant on their ability to get to the rim to offset some of their woes protecting the ball.
I expect UC San Diego to play zone and force Michigan to operate in the half court, while the Tritons apply ample ball pressure and attack the team’s drop coverage with shots from the perimeter—the team is eighth in three-point rate while shooting over 36% from beyond the arc.
It’s a sharp market with the Tritons catching only a few points, but this matchup sets up well for the team to go toe-to-toe with the Wolverines and pull the mild upset.
—Reed Wallach
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as South Region Breakdown: Top Overall Seed Auburn Gets Location Advantage.
