South Korea is going to drop its famous test and trace system after two years in the face of a massive omicron surge.
A weekend spike of close to 40,000 daily infections, which officials predict could reach up to 170,000 a day within a month, has made the sophisticated system impossible to maintain, forcing the authorities to follow in the footsteps of the UK, Denmark and others who have stopped meticulously counting.
On Monday, the government’s Covid-response team announced that the speed of virus transmission had compelled it to ditch the strategy for a more targeted approach, focused on treating vulnerable priority groups like the over-60s or over-50s with underlying diseases.
The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters said the majority of omicron cases were asymptomatic and mild. “The current public health and medical system, which focuses equally on all confirmed cases, may lack efficiency and lead to insufficient management of high-risk groups,” it said.
It puts the East Asian nation and its citizens into uncharted territory. South Korea has kept overall Covid-19 deaths below 7,000, in part thanks to a sophisticated pandemic response that combined mass testing, rigorous contact tracing based on GPS monitoring and daily check-up calls.
At times, the tracing regime has been criticised as intrusive – using CCTV, credit card details and mobile phone locations to track the movements and contacts of potentially infected citizens.
The unprecedented scale of the spread has rattled public nerves. But a vaccination rate of nearly 86 per cent, high booster take-up and relatively low number of severe cases has been used to justify restricting PCR testing to select groups, and cutting hospital stays to avoid overwhelming the health system.
Government advisers have so far predicted intensive care beds will not run out if resources are prioritised and those at low risk treat themselves at home.
Moon Jae-in, the president, on Monday admitted the omicron spike was “unpredictable” and a “grim reality” but encouraged the public not to be alarmed, reported the Korea Times.
“We need to be alert, but we don't need to have excessive fear,” he said. “If we control severely ill patients, the fatality rate and medical response capability, we can successfully overcome this critical moment.”
The policy shift contrasts sharply with the ongoing “zero Covid” strategy of neighbouring China and Hong Kong, which is doubling down on its strict quarantine rules, despite the damage to its reputation as an Asian business hub.
A new report by Chinese researchers has suggested restoring normal population mobility in largely Covid-free regions like China would cause some two million deaths a year, advocating for better vaccines to prevent infections.
The report’s conclusion, published last Friday in the weekly bulletin of the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, illustrates the growing gulf between cautious Asian capitals and countries like Denmark, Australia and the UK, which have abandoned restrictions to “learn to live” with Covid-19.
Seoul’s new strategy will straddle the two approaches, keeping border quarantines, mask mandates and social distancing rules including a 9pm curfew for restaurants and a six-person limit on private gatherings.
The move to scrap the test and trace system has received an anxious welcome from the public – sheltered but also fatigued by two years of heavy restrictions on socialising and business operations.
“It’s taken too much of a toll on the people,” said video editor Ji Min Hyuk, 27. “I think we need to do it like how they are doing it overseas, opening things back up to normal hours.”
Graphic designer, Noh Hye Eun 26, said it was reasonable to ask infected people to isolate at home if strict measures still prevented them from freely mixing with others.
“Many people are just thinking their time will come eventually of being infected,” she said. “The whole nation just seems tired of all this. I think most will agree with [the decision] even with the risks it may bring.”
Medical professionals have backed the government’s new strategy but urged it to tread slowly.
“This is a critical step, and it is important to do it in a way that allows you to make assessments and corrections, if necessary,” said Dr Jerome Kim, the director general of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul.
“The next step is to minimize impact: keep people out of hospitals, keep people out of ICUs, keep people from dying,” he said, adding that exposure should still be controlled through masks and self-isolation.
Experts will be keeping a close eye on ICU occupancy in coming weeks. A recent surge in cases has not been matched by a worrying influx to the ICU, with reports at the weekend pointing to a 17 per cent rate nationwide.
But Dr Kim added: “It will be important to know if there is a tipping point here – if two weeks from now the ICU percentage is much higher, assuming a 10 to 14-day lag.”
Strong vaccination rates among the elderly had helped lower hospitalisations, but medication – and possibly a new vaccine or booster against future variants – would play an important role in continuing to do so, he said.
Park Su Hyun, a spokesperson at the Korean Medical Association, said that while doctors understood the government’s decision, it had not given the health system enough time to plan and adjust.
“The KMA has just been notified of the new measure without prior notice. There is too much confusion for the medical staff on the frontline,” she said.
She cautioned against premature talk of achieving “herd immunity,” which is reentering public discourse.
“Right now, we are on the verge of seeing 40,000 new daily cases which is unprecedented in Korea. We can’t say for certain that going to a stage of living with the virus will be the right one,” she said.
While Omicron had not so far overloaded the health system, a new, more serious variant could change the calculation.
“If there is another critical variant which also rapidly increases new cases, there will be a time where new strict measures will be needed,” she said.
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