The Democratic nominating contest in the 2024 presidential election officially begins in South Carolina on 3 February, with the result all but a foregone conclusion. Joe Biden is expected to secure an easy victory in the state that resurrected his foundering presidential campaign four years ago.
Despite a lack of suspense, Saturday’s contest will offer some clues about Biden’s standing with his party’s base. Here’s what to know.
Why did Democrats put South Carolina first?
For the first time, South Carolina will launch the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. It’s a change from past cycles, which began with the Iowa caucuses followed closely by the New Hampshire primary.
Last year, the Democratic National Committee, at Biden’s urging, elected to overhaul the 2024 presidential primary process and put South Carolina first on the calendar, arguing that the state’s racial and economic diversity was more representative of the Democratic party than Iowa and New Hampshire, which are overwhelmingly white.
Democrats in New Hampshire went ahead with their primary last month, holding an unsanctioned contest without Biden on the ballot. He won anyway, notching a 44-point victory over his nearest challenger thanks to a homegrown write-in campaign.
Saturday is the first primary with delegates at stake. South Carolina will award 55 pledged delegates to its party convention, a fraction of the nearly 2,000 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. In accordance with the national party’s rules, delegates are allocated proportionally to candidates who earn at least 15% of the statewide or congressional district votes.
Who’s on the ballot?
Biden will appear on the ballot for the first time this cycle. The Biden campaign is hoping for a commanding victory in South Carolina, where four years ago voters propelled him to the party’s nomination after lackluster finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Contending with low approval ratings, concern about his age and lingering frustration with the economy, Biden now looks to South Carolina to energize his re-election bid as he prepares for a likely rematch with Donald Trump.
Biden’s Democratic challengers, the Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, will also be on the ballot. In New Hampshire, Phillips received about 20% of the vote while Williamson, who also sought the nomination in 2020, earned roughly 4%, but Biden was not officially on the ballot there.
A January poll from Emerson College found that only 30% of South Carolina voters intend to participate in the Democratic primary. Of those who do, nearly seven in 10 plan to vote for Biden compared with 5% for Phillips and 3% for Williamson. Twenty-two per cent said they were undecided.
Democrats and the Biden campaign have been working to boost turnout ahead of the Palmetto state’s first-in-the-nation debut. Biden visited the state last week, making an explicit appeal to Black voters whose support has softened, particularly among men.
“You’re the reason Donald Trump is a loser,” Biden told a largely Black audience in Columbia, South Carolina. “And you’re the reason we’re going to win and beat him again.”
Who will be voting?
South Carolina is an “open” primary state, meaning anyone registered to vote in the state can choose to participate in either the Republican or Democratic contests but not both. The state also allows 17-year-olds who will be 18 by the general election to vote in presidential primaries.
Early voting in the Democratic primary began on 22 January. Election day is Saturday 3 February. Polls will be open from 7am to 7pm.
In 2020, Black voters made up more than half of the Democratic primary electorate in the state, according to exit polls, and favored Biden by a wide margin. Meanwhile, Democrats in deep-red South Carolina tend to be more moderate than liberal, which also helped boost Biden over his rivals four years ago.
When can we expect results?
Given Biden’s strength among the Democratic electorate in the state, results are expected fairly quickly after polls close. According to the Associated Press, which the Guardian relies on for official race calls, it reported the first results from the contested 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary at 7.09pm.
What about the issues?
Four in 10 voters in the state said the economy was the “most important issue” facing South Carolina, according to the Emerson College poll, followed by immigration at 14% and “threats to democracy” at 9%.
But when broken down by party, 28% of Democrats said the economy was the most important issue, followed by 16% who said healthcare, 12% who chose “threats to democracy” and 9% who named abortion access. Among independent voters, the poll found that 37% view the economy as the top issue, followed by 12% who chose “threats to democracy” and 10% who said immigration.
A plurality of South Carolina’s voters –44% – oppose the state law banning most abortions after six weeks, compared with 38% who support it. Opposition to the law is significantly higher among Democrats – 62% – and among independents – 48%. There is also a notable gender gap: men support the abortion ban 43% to 41%, while women oppose it 47% to 34%.
What about the Republicans?
The Republican contest is already well under way. After dominating wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump hopes to vanquish his last remaining rival, the former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina on 24 February.
Haley was twice elected governor of South Carolina but faces an uphill climb to catch Trump, who has consistently led in polling.
In theory, Democrats sour on Biden or committed to stopping Trump could choose to vote in the Republican primary for Haley. But unlike in New Hampshire where there is a tradition of crossover voting, there appears to be little desire to do so in South Carolina, where many Democrats twice voted against Haley for governor.
