As the first exit poll results from the South Carolina GOP primary start to trickle in, early data suggests a distinct pattern in the electorate that mirrors the Republican landscape seen in the Iowa caucuses earlier this year rather than the New Hampshire primary.
One notable trend is the alignment with the 'MAGA' movement, with 45% of participants in the South Carolina Republican Party identifying themselves as part of the movement, while 49% do not. This ratio closely resembles the figures observed in Iowa, contrasting sharply with New Hampshire where only a third of voters claimed association with the movement.
Regarding beliefs about the 2020 election, only 32% of primary participants in South Carolina believe that Joe Biden legitimately won, while a significant 65% hold the view that he did not. This sentiment, likely influenced by rhetoric from figures like Donald Trump, echoes the Iowa caucus electorate more than that of New Hampshire.
On the ideological spectrum, a substantial 43% of the electorate in South Carolina identifies as very conservative, with 36% leaning somewhat conservative, and only 20% falling into the moderate or liberal categories. This distribution contrasts with New Hampshire, where the latter two categories held a larger share of the electorate.
Furthermore, a significant 61% of participants in the South Carolina primary identify as white, born-again, evangelical Christians, while 39% do not. This stark contrast with New Hampshire, where only 19% fell into this category, further solidifies the resemblance of the South Carolina electorate to that of the Iowa caucuses.
These early findings hint at a voter demographic in South Carolina that leans heavily towards conservative ideologies and aligns closely with the 'MAGA' movement, setting the stage for a primary that may reflect the outcomes seen in Iowa earlier this year. As the night progresses, these initial trends may evolve, shaping the final outcome of the South Carolina GOP primary.
